http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

GEM still showing strong HP at 240 with a trend for anticyclone to move further north.Is there  something about Gems modelling that tend sto make its output less progressive on zonal flows than say GFS.?

Some incredibly warm air for New Years Eve Eve. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

Looks nasty looks neither negative or positive tilted so I guess that would be its most development

The next small trough shown as a short wave in n/h which is not correct as close up reveals to my eyes looks even more dangerous to me as its looks negative titled which could mean we have a strong jet streak near the base of the trough i hope not

I dont think I have seen such a extensive high pressure belt like that from ecm before little chance to  get under but not rocket science to see why it will be very unsettled period

Indeed Roger its been like that before perhaps Peter can answer that question

Just a pity they won't miss the BI to our south - that scenario would likely herald some decent [ie, cold] weather. Even if the tracked along the Channel & then into continental Europe, it'd be better.

That Euro High is bloody resilient. Every time the models begin to hint at energy slipping SE'wards & pressure potentially building to our NE, it regroups and the energy charges NE'wards to prevent any retrogression of the high.

Our climate stinks.

I live in Cumbria. Yes we are used to the rain. Part of Cumbria is called the Lake District and for good reason. But I think we had our fill now.

This mild weather has been a blessing for many I,m sure but it just means wet weather for us up here.

Models indicating two major storms either side of New Year by the looks of it. Thank goodness I live on top of a modest hill.

I think I am on my 54th day on the trot when rain has fallen -  last dry day 26th October

Indeed Jacko  thats how I feel very sensible and concerning post

ECM has joined GFS in digging the jet a little further south than it is at present by the time we get to the first weekend in January. Although it won't be exactly freezing should that verify, I imagine that temps would be something approaching more seasonal values rather than the exceptional mildness of recent times.

Bad news if you don't like storms though. As the jet dips, the propensity for storms to crash into the UK and not pass to the NW increases.

We are heading for a very stormy period for some time in my view

May not seem like it but the polar vortex is weakening, and the AO is responding by trending negative.

I think we all knew that cold weather was not going to happen this month, but don't rule out the start of January just yet.

I honestly think the polar vortex will completely collapse in mid January. For weeks now its held off attacks like little fleas biting a horse, but it can only take so much...

Sometimes Q we dont need no help from the pv, sometimes its not always the end all 

I've long had mid-Jan in mind Q so I'd enjoy it if you were right!

Though there don't seem to be many left who are optimistic about it being that early. Consensus seems to have shifted toward late Jan.

On a bit of a tangent this but I was just looking at the latest SST anomalies in detail:

http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/anom_plot.html?i=34&j=2

...and was struck by just how toasty the North Sea and Baltic Sea are compared to the usual. No surprise given the recent weather but it raises a question as to what magnitude of easterly it would take ti overcome that situation. As epic as the convection could be from a proper 'beasterly' making the trip, I suspect we're better off hoping that a more NW'rly component to the weather during the first 10 days or so of Jan can work to lower those SSTs a bit.

The linked chart also shows the effect of having copious amounts of rain across western parts, with anomalously low SSTs near-shore. Not sure why there's a slight effect in the Channel though, as it's been no wetter than average across much of the south, in fact notably drier than that at my location for example with only 62% of the norm to the 22nd.

Good signs of a pattern change are now featuring in the model output as we end the year and begin the next. Useful components going forward (for attacking the polar vortex) look to be a massive blocking high over Asia, a deep trough affecting the UK (uncertain placement though) and more of a western ridge + eastern trough combination over the U.S., provided that ridge can extend through Canada and toward the pole at times.

There was never any chance of an easterly - we need to accept that we are heading for the warmest and wettest (in the NW) winter ever.

Speculation, not fact.

12zgfs p run thus far upgrade on storm strength from 6z

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0&runpara=1&carte=1

very nasty

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=0&runpara=1&carte=1

Anything inland won't have a problem with very high SSTs like that, in fact like you point out; all they would do is make the lake effect far stronger. Any easterly cold enough to produce decent lake effect snow will also be cold enough to be entirely snow with the exception of places in the immediate vincinity of the coast.

Basically anything at -8C or lower, which is what a proper easterly would bring anyway.

GFS 18z out to t144 and looks much more like GEM 12z at the same stage. High pressure stronger to our East and more persistent than on GFS 12z. Not sure if it will make any difference as the run progresses?

Hopefully we'll see energy diverted on a SE trajectory.

Edit: nope

Out to nearly the end of the year, and the block to our east is hanging on slightly better on this run - but that only serves to hold the low over the UK longer.

OK this is interesting, there is a very slight easterly component in the winds. Will quantum's rule be obyed?

Roll it on a few frames, and GFS says no....

Not hard to see why

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=5&carte=1

Maybe a better chance as time goes on