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Solar Cycles
23 December 2015 11:04:13


 


There are differences in data input so they don't all run from the same starting point. However, the suggestion that the 6z is initiated from the 0z t+6 hours is utter nonsense as far as I am aware. The differences are relatively minor though and it wouldn't make sense to discount this evening's 18z run in favour of the previous 0z run.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Badly worded as they can't all run from the same starting point per say.😁 

Retron
23 December 2015 11:07:16


There are differences in data input so they don't all run from the same starting point. However, the suggestion that the 6z is initiated from the 0z t+6 hours is utter nonsense as far as I am aware. The differences are relatively minor though and it wouldn't make sense to discount this evening's 18z run in favour of the previous 0z run.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Yup - any loss in accuracy from data sources moving from say the 0z to 6z is usually more than offset by the 6-hour-fresher data. The 6z is not initialised from the 0z's T+6 chart, that's just silly!


Here's a chart showing the 0z data input into ECM this morning. It'll be interesting to compare it with Christmas Day, as that old chestnut always pops up! In previous years there's been a marked decrease in data on that day, it remains to be seen whether that's the case this year.


 



Leysdown, north Kent
roger63
23 December 2015 11:23:38

Another way at looking at the likelihood of persistence is to look at circulation type ie NAO.If you look at all NAO + Decembers over the last 190 years you will find there a 75% chance of the following January being NAO + as well.

Rob K
23 December 2015 11:24:02
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Scandy 1050 MB
23 December 2015 11:51:40

Well only good thing you can say about today's runs is that at least in GFS deep FI the trend to drop the PV into Northern scandy still looks on course so may change things slightly but we will see.  Plus hints of stratospheric warming here and there but nothing substantial yet but the stratosphere is so abnormally cold that it could appear at any time.


No one knows whether January will be mild - I agree the probability it will be is higher than normal  (tends to be the form horse in southern UK anyway) but certainly not writing it off just yet!  Perhaps of interest for me also is the Solar cycle 12 /24 correlation -only once have we ever deviated from it and if we have a mild winter then that will be a massive deviation as in cycle 12 the equivalent winter was quite a bit below average.  If that occurs that theory can be thrown out with the bathwater I think!


Apart from the GEM interest yesterday and the odd mega cold deep FI silly chart from GFS quite dull model watching at the moment if you are fed up of mild and wind /rain.  Let's hope a new month eventually brings a change.

Whether Idle
23 December 2015 11:51:53


Another way at looking at the likelihood of persistence is to look at circulation type ie NAO.If you look at all NAO + Decembers over the last 190 years you will find there a 75% chance of the following January being NAO + as well.


Originally Posted by: roger63 


A useful statistic, duly noted.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
squish
23 December 2015 12:19:19
The whole GEFS forecast for the period 28 Dec-5 Jan has changed markedly in the last few days. Pressure was original forecast to rise quite notably from the SE through the end of this year and into the beginning of next, with the model consensus being about 1030+mb for London from the 1st onwards. The 06z suite shows a markedly different forecast now

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens4.php?x=306&y=141&ext=1&run=6&ville=Londres&runpara=0 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
The Beast from the East
23 December 2015 12:34:56

Its getting to the painfully inevitable point when we can start to write off much of January as well for cold and snow. Yes, it will be colder or normal at least


What another disaster for us coldies but at least this one was very well forecast

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
picturesareme
23 December 2015 12:43:58


Its getting to the painfully inevitable point when we can start to write off much of January as well for cold and snow. Yes, it will be colder or normal at least


What another disaster for us coldies but at least this one was very well forecast


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Could all those wanting to write off the next 38-39 days for cold please kindly go crawl back into your caves. 


Nobody knows what the weather will do in 8 days let alone 38 days, and anybody claiming to know that we won't see wintery weather in the coming month & quarter is purely guessing.

Graham Swanton
23 December 2015 12:47:35


 


Could all those wanting to write off the next 38-39 days for cold please kindly go crawl back into your caves. 


Nobody knows what the weather will do in 8 days let alone 38 days, and anybody claiming to know that we won't see wintery weather in the coming month & quarter is purely guessing.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


Was just about to ask how people can write of January when the 1st is still up for debate.


 


No one is willing to take a chart for the 1st of January as certain but will write off the next month or two?

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
23 December 2015 13:04:35


No one is willing to take a chart for the 1st of January as certain but will write off the next month or two?


Originally Posted by: Graham Swanton 


Yes bizarre isn't it. Talking of 1st Jan, JFF of course, but last night's little GEM still keeps the easterly hope alive, albeit this time just a glancing blow, but with a battleground snow event over the UK.



Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Chiltern Blizzard
23 December 2015 13:09:35


 


Kev,


As pdiddy excellent post above demonstrates their is a very clear signal for very mild Decembers to be followed by a very mild January and a slightly cooler February, I am not sure why some are ignoring such a clear relationship, indeed, in meteorological terms I can think of no other 'pattern match' that produces such consistent outcomes.


Yes every year is unique but science is all about looking at probabilities and trends and this one is unusually clear.


Realistically some cold weather may occur in February as the effect seems to wane by then.


The fact that this December is so wacky mild is unlikely to result in a different outcome IMO but hey let's hope in years to come people quote Andy's Christmas 'winter is over' post and how it was followed by severe cold in January, that would be fine with me.


Some good level of debate on here recently with everyone getting their say without ridicule from others, this is nice to see as TWO is the only thing keeping me sane during this grim mid winter, over on NW there are toys flying out of prams everywhere!


Keep it up guys!


cheers,


 


Andy


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


i agree that there appears to be some correlation between mild Decembers and mild Januarys, but that's very different to predicting confidently that there will almost certainly be a mild January... 


It's a bit like saying that statistically UK lowland winters are mild (which objectively speaking they are with average temps above 4c) and therefore we can always write off winter before its started!


 

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
pdiddy
23 December 2015 13:32:59


 


Kev,


As pdiddy excellent post above demonstrates their is a very clear signal for very mild Decembers to be followed by a very mild January and a slightly cooler February, I am not sure why some are ignoring such a clear relationship, indeed, in meteorological terms I can think of no other 'pattern match' that produces such consistent outcomes.


Yes every year is unique but science is all about looking at probabilities and trends and this one is unusually clear.


Realistically some cold weather may occur in February as the effect seems to wane by then.


The fact that this December is so wacky mild is unlikely to result in a different outcome IMO but hey let's hope in years to come people quote Andy's Christmas 'winter is over' post and how it was followed by severe cold in January, that would be fine with me.


Some good level of debate on here recently with everyone getting their say without ridicule from others, this is nice to see as TWO is the only thing keeping me sane during this grim mid winter, over on NW there are toys flying out of prams everywhere!


Keep it up guys!


cheers,


 


Andy


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


er... I'm not sure that's what I said, or indeed the data said.  It's average or thereabouts, so, some milder, some colder = no correlation?  I'm not a statistician, so feel free to correct me (those that are!)


P

Fothergill
23 December 2015 14:00:35

Some monster storms showing up for the New Year period. Will be surprised if we don't see a major storm before the month is out.



 


Gooner
23 December 2015 14:12:01

Looking at the ensembles it does seem that the new year may bring an end to the insanely high 850s of late. Still a couple of degrees above average but fewer really mild options. Originally Posted by: Rob K 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


Certainly a much cooler outlook


 


Thankfully

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
23 December 2015 14:15:21


 


 


Was just about to ask how people can write of January when the 1st is still up for debate.


 


No one is willing to take a chart for the 1st of January as certain but will write off the next month or two?


Originally Posted by: Graham Swanton 


Hi Graham......any chance of putting your location up please?


Very sensible post by yourself

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Graham Swanton
23 December 2015 14:24:18


Some monster storms showing up for the New Year period. Will be surprised if we don't see a major storm before the month is out.



 



Originally Posted by: Fothergill 


 


Love the fact they seem to be heading toward central Europe too - Possible Alpine Snowfest and back end transient falls for the uk??

Rob K
23 December 2015 15:07:02


">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Certainly a much cooler outlook


 


Thankfully



 


Indeed the 06Z is a degree or two lower than the 00Z into January, with 850 mean pretty well bang on average now.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Deep Powder
23 December 2015 15:25:31


">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Certainly a much cooler outlook


 


Thankfully



 


Whilst I fully agree, bring on the more seasonal weather! I am concerned, however, by how wet it could potentially get, looking at the ensemble Rob posted. That could lead to serious problems down here.....

Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
Shropshire
23 December 2015 15:45:19


 


Could all those wanting to write off the next 38-39 days for cold please kindly go crawl back into your caves. 


Nobody knows what the weather will do in 8 days let alone 38 days, and anybody claiming to know that we won't see wintery weather in the coming month & quarter is purely guessing.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


I think in the pattern we are in, up to 10 days is pretty clear and we can extrapolate that further ahead. The METO see cold as unlikely to the end of their forecast period - they see the Euro High's best mate the Azores High becoming the player, or that is the implication from their forecast, more positive NAO/AO 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Speedygee
23 December 2015 16:20:17


 


 


I think in the pattern we are in, up to 10 days is pretty clear and we can extrapolate that further ahead. The METO see cold as unlikely to the end of their forecast period - they see the Euro High's best mate the Azores High becoming the player, or that is the implication from their forecast, more positive NAO/AO 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


There's nothing like a positive contributor is there?


Look, there's a lot to watch in the models at the moment.  I don't post often here, and haven't done for some years, but the 29th/30th is definitely one to watch After that - who knows.....


But to keep harping on with negative comments isn't really 'model watching' and doesn't really fit the brief as a 'discussion'. So on that note...... as you were.


Cheers Speedy


Friend of the Schaf

stophe
23 December 2015 16:25:52


Gfs ramping up the storm on this run

Solar Cycles
23 December 2015 16:30:25


 


 


I think in the pattern we are in, up to 10 days is pretty clear and we can extrapolate that further ahead. The METO see cold as unlikely to the end of their forecast period - they see the Euro High's best mate the Azores High becoming the player, or that is the implication from their forecast, more positive NAO/AO 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Many a Greenland heights start from the Azores. 😉

picturesareme
23 December 2015 16:33:30


 


 


I think in the pattern we are in, up to 10 days is pretty clear and we can extrapolate that further ahead. The METO see cold as unlikely to the end of their forecast period - they see the Euro High's best mate the Azores High becoming the player, or that is the implication from their forecast, more positive NAO/AO 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


correction 'you' think there for it is 'you' extrapolating not 'us'.


 

squish
23 December 2015 16:36:54

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