Ecm stamps has a headache at t120 To be honest I dont think I can take it past that at the moment 

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2015122812!!/

From Fergie on NW........not ideal if truth be known

Noteworthy is how over a good number of it's recent runs, GloSea5 has also leaned to the same outcome: i.e., +ve MSLP anomaly centred to SW of the UK, which - like EC Monthly - results in a successive week-by-week reduction in the recent/current/near-term conspicuous +ve PPN anomaly for much of the UK. Equally of note is how some recent deterministic runs of other models have begun showing the same net outcome in far reaches of their output.

EC Monthly has a cold anomaly over the UK by end of 1st week Jan (the first such signal yet this winter!) but then returns to +ve one as Jan continues, albeit rather masking a net NW'ly flow with anticyclonic regime dominating directly to SW/W. Of interest are striking height rises bisecting the pole by mid-late Jan, but these are subsequently lost or weakly reversed in model signal. 

However, there's a fair spread in stamps 17th Jan onwards (like GloSea) so whilst by that juncture we might reasonably steer towards climatology as fair guide for now, confidence is clearly lower thereafter (as you'd expect).  

What can we reasonably deduce?

- continued signal for something drier, at least for many parts of UK, as Jan progresses

- continued signal for +ve MSLP focused eventually to SW/W

- as per recent UKMO assessment, likelihood of any *sustained and/or pronounced* cold weather continues to look generally low over next 2-4 weeks, albeit superimposed over a colder phase early part of Jan, courtesy depression track running NW-SE across UK or just to S (as per some recent deterministic output)

Also from Fergie

I'm unconvinced by anything being modelled post-mid Jan at the moment. 

Well worth sharing in the North American thread here --> http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=2452 

Somebody should have bought him a "how to speak plain English" book for Christmas

I'd say FI is a weeks time, let alone 3.

A lot of tosh generated from the 18z.
Not exactly a cold run unfortunately with rain now fast becoming the buzz word again for the country.

The mid Jan '2nd bite at the cherry' looking like the next real hope providing the NAO and jet profile show as forecast.

And in direct response some well respected members over on NW questioned Fergie 

Something is brewing

[quote=Gooner;747606

Also from Fergie

I'm unconvinced by anything being modelled post-mid Jan at the moment. ]

Fergie this, Fergie that, it's become a little idolising the past couple of years. Ok we can give the guy credit but not hang on his every word.

I read that Fergusson quote and found it clear, concise and conveying precisely what can be gleaned from the model output he sees, and no more.

Are you a native English speaker?

It's interesting how so called storm Frank gets pushed back away to the North west over the next few days.

The normal track should be North east.

This is it's forcasted position north of Iceland for Wednesday.

Some depth 930.

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/fax/20151228.1650.PPVI89.png

It's worth mentioning that snow depth chart is from Accuweather Pro - the person who posted it to NW has carefully snipped out the copyright info in the top right!

ECM actually offers various snow-related parameters as a model variable:

Frozen Precipitation, Frozen Precipitation total to model hour (which is the one I look at for snowfall), snow accumulation (based on 10:1 ratio), snow accumulation total to model hour (based on 10:1 ratio), snow on the ground.

There are all sorts of other parameters too - surface moisture convergence, surface equvalent potential temperature, lapse rates for various partial thicknesses, windshear at different levels and so on. It's a shame it's not freely available.

Last night's ECM-15 control run brings a 2-day easterly on days 7 and 8 as low pressure moves SE'wards to the south of the UK. The next Atlantic low then moves over the UK and away to the east, leading to a return of westerlies. By day 15 a new high builds to the NE and easterlies return to the eastern half of the UK.

Yesterday's ECM-32 control run brings easterlies from 168 to 270, with two lows disrupting to the south of the UK. The following two lows move over the UK, but the next one (at 408) again disrupts to the south, leading to more easterlies for a short time. There's then a more mobile interlude, by by 600 high pressure builds strongly over Scandinavia and easterlies return for a short time. The high soon collapses though and then it's westerlies and NW'lies until the end of the run.

Massive differences between ECM and UKMO in critical places at 120 hours rendering FI at t96...

The issue is the 30 mb + difference in pressure around northern Iceland.  ECM has a low of around 979mb there, UKMO has a ridge of around 1011 mb thrown across the GIN sea by the Russo-Scandi High.  This is a critical area and for CAA into UK we need the UKMO to be correct if the UK (and not just the Shetlands) is to receive any cold air. 

In my view things appear to be still 80% for the Atlantic to win out, 20% for the block to achieve serious CAA, but until I can see the ensembles for GEFS and ECM I reserve judgement as to whether its game over.

 As it costs £100k I hope it's a lot better than the GFS offerings. 

Atlantic coming through on the GEFS this morning - looks the Chinese may be offering good value for money, watch out UKMet!

Looks like close but no cigar this morning a couple of steps back for cold. The frigid air just can't quite get accross the North sea. Cold rain rather than mild rain crapest!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Agreed. GEFS say no. Game almost over, will wait for ECM ens and the 12z GEFS this evening before I do this:

Hope going forward is we have high pressure in all the right places. Vortex all over the shop. January should be a lot more interesting than December still.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.html

Agreed sadly just as I was starting to believe . Still room for a shift to colder snowy solutions though as its so close just over the North Sea.