Yes.  Here is my chart of the day.  An "impossible" amount of warm air advection to the North Pole.  Frankly mind-boggling!

Thanks. Although I knew ECM has twice as layers in the vertical resolution I hadn't realised this makes GFS more vulnerable to faux easterlies. Personally I've always thought (anecdotally) ECM tends to be overcook continental / Scandi blocking, not GFS.   

This disturbing looking feature is becoming consistent for 4th January. 

Indeed.

PS: Thanks for clarifying the Kettley high thing the other day. That was it.

Nasty little storm, that one.  Predicted 60-70mph gusts in the SE:

Yes, and it's a cue for wintry conditions to follow to N and NE areas as temperatures fall.

You have to laugh at our climate....

According to 18z, Scotland gets wiped off the face of the earth 6th - 7th January 2016

Atlantic through again on the GFS18z.

Not a great run so far, is it? The potential for cold after the 4th gets very quickly snuffed out on this run. Let's hope it's one of the milder options 

Blowtorch back on this run - it will be one of the mildest in the GEFS18z.

A quick return to blowtorch zonality on the 18z..no doubt this run will become a trend and then verify.

Maybe not for long:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

Looks that way for a while, but the run has a colder ending- see the links I posted above.

Hmm, likely all academic, but encouraging to see the cold fight back I suppose 

Interesting with the run now ending with cold. Seen runs before where the mild gets snuffed out in the middle. A lot going on.

No -10 options left on the 18Z GEFS.

Not saying the chance has left the building, but it's certainly reaching for its hat 😉

For London I'd agree but there are for other parts of the UK

0z GFS is poor for cold, UKMO 0z has lost its mojo and is looking GFSesque at 144.  GFS op wants to head back to 12c + maxes in the S within a week.

GFS 0z short ensembles -

GFS op predicts it to be sodden for all the places that don't need the rain.

Its a step back at first glance this morning, though the GEM is okay for the NE for a couple of cold days.  ECM will be interesting.

Increasingly looking like the unsettled and flood theme will continue for the UK after this morning's OP runs. Some wintry conditions for Scotland and the NE at times but for the S and W, it is looking pretty awful with heavy rain, strong winds and flooding being the theme.

sadly this about sums it up. A step in the wrong direction towards further spells of wind and rain, and currently it sounds like a freight train outside with storm Frank battering it's way through. Let's see what today's runs bring, for most of this output could change after the WAA shot into the Arctic. 

ECM uppers at 120.  Cold for Unst in the Shetlands.

In summary - not a dead cert but looking quite likely that the cold shot will go to the north as most output has suggested.  To get cold over the UK we need a 1000+ mile correction south of the pattern.  Very unlikely.

What is much more likely now as a result of the pattern predicted, is more flooding in the coming week.