Model Output Discussion 26/12/15 15:35>>>· Page 37

Rob K
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 15:56:23

The picture at 48 hours. It looks quite promising, but we know better sadly...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn481.gif

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Gooner
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 15:59:02

#902

Will lets see then.

I fear that you will be wrong Shropshire as the weather at the moment is not worth model watching

Originally Posted by: Hendon Snowman

Really????

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Shropshire
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 15:59:56

#903

Will lets see then.

I fear that you will be wrong Shropshire as the weather at the moment is not worth model watching

Originally Posted by: Hendon Snowman

Steve has a lot of supporters, especially on the other side, but lets see what the 12zs bring, I fear it will be neither good news for coldies or the flooded areas.

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David M Porter
Advanced Member Topic Starter

31 December 2015 16:03:59

#904

Steve has a lot of supporters, especially on the other side, but lets see what the 12zs bring, I fear it will be neither good news for coldies or the flooded areas.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire

Why not just wait and see what the run produces before passing any judgement on it?

Nothing personal, but you sound almost like a stuck record. I wish we all had your psychic ability!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

Bertwhistle
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 16:04:29

#905

Steve has a lot of supporters, especially on the other side, but lets see what the 12zs bring, I fear it will be neither good news for coldies or the flooded areas.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire

To be fair, Shropshire, Steve talks about tonight's output.

I would expect a significantly different suite tonight in favour of cold.

12z is currently rolling out however, so still worth a jolly good look.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
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marting
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 16:06:44

#906

Low pressure sliding more south at 114 hours on GFS, subtle difference but brings in colder air.
Martin

Martin
Greasby, Wirral.

Bertwhistle
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 16:12:11

#907

Straight side of low has definite easterly element. Quantum's rule? Is it a slider?

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
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Gusty
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 16:14:09

#908

Cold undercut..risk of snow in the east.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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Deep Powder
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 16:18:58

#909

Enjoyed that analysis Mr Murr. I remember you being similarly bullish about Jan 2013, even when GFS kept showing the Atlantic barrelling through. You called it then, against what everyone else was saying and eventually, around T72 I think it was, GFS backed down and the first undercut of that winter was on........snow enjoyed all around. I hope you have spotted something similar this time.

Keep the posts coming......😀

Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

Fothergill
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 16:23:17

#910

GFS 12z at day 7, very disturbed and wet. Could be some decent convective weather behind the main front

UKMO 144hrs, the storm approaches

Edited by user 31 December 2015 16:25:04 | Reason: Not specified

Bertwhistle
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 16:25:02

#911

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_156_mslp850.png?cb=260

More and more of that low seems to have -5 uppers wrapped up in it (N and NE UK) compared to the same time yesterday; if changes of this magnitude are possible in 24hours, who knows what could happen?

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Gooner
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 16:32:53

#912

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_156_mslp850.png?cb=260

More and more of that low seems to have -5 uppers wrapped up in it (N and NE UK) compared to the same time yesterday; if changes of this magnitude are possible in 24hours, who knows what could happen?

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle

Agree

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Retron
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 16:34:44

#913

Is GFS shaping up for a northerly? That upper high's not going anywhere fast at 210!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=210&mode=0

Leysdown, north Kent

Hendon Snowman
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 16:41:25

#914

Really????

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Yes until the warm advection from Frank has done it's thing

Gooner
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 16:43:10

#915

Yes until the warm advection from Frank has done it's thing

Originally Posted by: Hendon Snowman

Trying to work out why you are posting in this thread then

I dont get how you can say they aren't worth watching?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Gooner
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 16:54:22

#916

Where is the HP going ??

For SB's benefit , this is JFF , we wouldn't want him taking it too seriously

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

John p
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 16:55:08

#917

I think what's most interesting is GFS is quite consistently modelling Greeny height rises around mid month. Now that is something that GFS does excel at...

Camberley, Surrey

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 17:08:58

#918

I think what's most interesting is GFS is quite consistently modelling Greeny height rises around mid month. Now that is something that GFS does excel at...

Originally Posted by: John p

Indeed starting in about 12 day. GFS ends with a absolute stunner of a chart!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&carte=1

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 17:12:58

#919

Pertubation 7 please (JFF as Gooner would say!) 144 hrs

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

sriram
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 17:15:36

#920

WeatherOnline are going for colder weather next month

Even mentions snow

Ties in very nicely the models going for blocking to the north east - the chance of wintery weather will remain

Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL

Gooner
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 17:33:00

#921

Control has the cold further South

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

mildmildwest
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 17:34:14

#922

GFS 18z definitely looking interesting at the tail end, long way off ofcourse

Bertwhistle
Advanced Member

31 December 2015 17:41:53

#923

There is definitely a celebratory feel to the thread just in time for New Year's Eve. Don't care if it's premature. Feels good. Lots of different suggestions from different sources- do keep 'em coming, posters. Won't let S********* pop the bubbles in my champagne.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
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