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tallyho_83
31 December 2015 12:15:06


ECM shows the two options I mentioned earlier very well in its ensembles!


In the mid-term (5 to 10 days) there's still a lot of uncertainty, depending on where the trough disrupts - if it's far enough south there's still a chance of a cold waft for a day or two.



After the 10th we have either a return to mild SW'ly conditions or we have a much colder spell of weather - a few runs keep the stalemate going, but it's not a likely option at the moment.


The NCEP run on there is this morning's 0z GFS. It went the route of transferring enough heights westwards over Greenland to stall the upper low over the Atlantic, then the heights linked with a ridge coming eastwards from Canada to form a block. Northerlies were the result.


The milder cluster on the graph above don't bring enough heights over Greenland to stop the deep upper low setting up near Iceland.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


A return to mild south westerly's - haha - as if it hasn't been mild lol.

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Steve Murr
31 December 2015 12:16:50

Just an update from me


ive been tracking upstream whats likely to develop & heres a controversial post


bin EVERY ECM & GFS run for the past 5-7 days that shows the atlantic getting through at todays day 6 & 7


There is going to be a huge model swing over the next 12-24 hours in favour of an atlantic ridge 


the bowling ball low over the UK show at day 9 will disapear to be replaced by a sliding low & an undercutting continental feed....


s

picturesareme
31 December 2015 12:20:24


Just an update from me


ive been tracking upstream whats likely to develop & heres a controversial post


bin EVERY ECM & GFS run for the past 5-7 days that shows the atlantic getting through at todays day 6 & 7


There is going to be a huge model swing over the next 12-24 hours in favour of an atlantic ridge 


the bowling ball low over the UK show at day 9 will disapear to be replaced by a sliding low & an undercutting continental feed....


s


Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


hmm cold ramp without back up... 😂

Steve Murr
31 December 2015 12:22:17

14 years watching the models should account for something.....
;)

Shropshire
31 December 2015 12:24:03


Just an update from me


ive been tracking upstream whats likely to develop & heres a controversial post


bin EVERY ECM & GFS run for the past 5-7 days that shows the atlantic getting through at todays day 6 & 7


There is going to be a huge model swing over the next 12-24 hours in favour of an atlantic ridge 


the bowling ball low over the UK show at day 9 will disapear to be replaced by a sliding low & an undercutting continental feed....


s


Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


 


Thank you the Chosen One, I fear this prediction will go the same way as the Special One a couple of weeks ago....

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
picturesareme
31 December 2015 12:32:58


14 years watching the models should account for something.....
;)


Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


i genuinely sincerely hope you are right 😊 But as you say "controversial" 😉 Without any thought to back it up its surely just a cold ramp 😄


Could this switch be down to lack of data over the new year festival period 😏

nsrobins
31 December 2015 12:33:22


 


 


Thank you the Chosen One, I fear this prediction will go the same way as the Special One a couple of weeks ago....


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


If we have Chosen and Special, what does that make you?


You keep it up Steve - your input is as welcome as any in here and anyone with experience will know your appearance sends shudders down the spines of the 'mildies'.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gusty
31 December 2015 12:36:29


 


If we have Chosen and Special, what does that make you?


You keep it up Steve - your input is as welcome as any in here and anyone with experience will know your appearance sends shudders down the spines of the 'mildies'.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 I can't wait for the Muir sausage. Its been years since I've seen it. 


 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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The Beast from the East
31 December 2015 12:41:36


 


If we have Chosen and Special, what does that make you?


You keep it up Steve - your input is as welcome as any in here and anyone with experience will know your appearance sends shudders down the spines of the 'mildies'.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Shropshire tells it like it is though even though it is not what we want to hear. The most likely option remains what most of the output continues to show. A bit colder than recently but staying very wet. No sign of a sustained northerly or easterly


I assume Steve must have been having a little joke earlier.

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Sevendust
31 December 2015 12:42:02


 


 I can't wait for the Muir sausage. Its been years since I've seen it. 


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Steve needs to adopt that "Man the Met Office fear" tag that TomP had

Sevendust
31 December 2015 12:45:02


 


Shropshire tells it like it is though even though it is not what we want to hear. The most likely option remains what most of the output continues to show. A bit colder than recently but staying very wet. No sign of a sustained northerly or easterly


I assume Steve must have been having a little joke earlier.


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Steve's going on a hunch based on experience which he is quite entitled to do.


Most forecasting is based on interpretation and as we know on here, the same charts can be interpreted in widely different ways.


Personally, I'm going for cooler zonal until mid-month so that opens the door for white stuff on Northern hills.

Bertwhistle
31 December 2015 12:45:44


 


 


Thank you the Chosen One, I fear this prediction will go the same way as the Special One a couple of weeks ago....


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


I'm in your corner Steve.


www.iwanttokeepthedreamalive.com


 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Brian Gaze
31 December 2015 12:48:59


 


I'm in your corner Steve.


www.iwanttokeepthedreamalive.com


 


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


Freiheit were doing that and then rapidly disappeared without a trace. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Quantum
31 December 2015 12:53:30

You know if Steve is right you will all have to bow down to the NAVGEM which has been doing this for days.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Ally Pally Snowman
31 December 2015 12:56:02


Just an update from me


ive been tracking upstream whats likely to develop & heres a controversial post


bin EVERY ECM & GFS run for the past 5-7 days that shows the atlantic getting through at todays day 6 & 7


There is going to be a huge model swing over the next 12-24 hours in favour of an atlantic ridge 


the bowling ball low over the UK show at day 9 will disapear to be replaced by a sliding low & an undercutting continental feed....


s


Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


Its a big call hope you're right Steve. Keep posting this side it's always great to have your input.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
31 December 2015 12:59:34

I do remember a few years ago NAVGEM persisting with an easterly when all the others showed an atlantic breakthrough. I think it was March 2013

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
31 December 2015 13:03:01


14 years watching the models should account for something.....
;)


Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


I think he is onto something, what I tend to find is that you tend to see recurring patterns, and some things just look odd. For example when the GFS predicted an LP appearing out of nowhere in Germany, stuff like that doesn't tend to happen. Likewise a 930mb low tracking very slowly over the UK on a westerly  (as opposed to veering north) track looks pretty contrived. 


To me there are two options that arn't contrived, either the undercutting low or the atlantic blowing right through with a ghost of a ridge left over scandanavia. The models are going for somewhere in between which to me does not seem realistic.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Phil G
31 December 2015 13:10:23
Expect the unexpected.
Let alone anything else, the models are having trouble with a number of features at the moment and one of these repositioned or gone from the charts can have an impact further down the run.
I don't think what most models are showing is a done deal with subtle changes to the jet modelling run to run.

pdiddy
31 December 2015 13:14:47


 


I think he is onto something, what I tend to find is that you tend to see recurring patterns, and some things just look odd. For example when the GFS predicted an LP appearing out of nowhere in Germany, stuff like that doesn't tend to happen. Likewise a 930mb low tracking very slowly over the UK on a westerly  (as opposed to veering north) track looks pretty contrived. 


To me there are two options that arn't contrived, either the undercutting low or the atlantic blowing right through with a ghost of a ridge left over scandanavia. The models are going for somewhere in between which to me does not seem realistic.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I have to agree there... some evolutions shown recently appear contrived... I've noticed that the GFS in particular can start to look very different early in the run, only to miraculously arrive at the same point as shown previously on earlier runs a few days further out.  This is also borne out by the ensembles where there is significant spread fairly early, but the bunch comes together again at t144!

some faraway beach
31 December 2015 13:17:06


 


I think he is onto something, what I tend to find is that you tend to see recurring patterns, and some things just look odd. For example when the GFS predicted an LP appearing out of nowhere in Germany, stuff like that doesn't tend to happen. Likewise a 930mb low tracking very slowly over the UK on a westerly  (as opposed to veering north) track looks pretty contrived. 


To me there are two options that arn't contrived, either the undercutting low or the atlantic blowing right through with a ghost of a ridge left over scandanavia. The models are going for somewhere in between which to me does not seem realistic.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


As Retron commented on the ECM ensemble in post 933:


After the 10th we have either a return to mild SW'ly conditions or we have a much colder spell of weather - a few runs keep the stalemate going, but it's not a likely option at the moment.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Solar Cycles
31 December 2015 13:19:26
Steve Murr makes a big call and one even I'll listen to and not because he's calling cold but the fact he has a knack of sniffing out these set ups, he may well be wrong but his enthusiasm and overall knowledge is always worth a read.
JACKO4EVER
31 December 2015 13:34:10

Steve Murr makes a big call and one even I'll listen to and not because he's calling cold but the fact he has a knack of sniffing out these set ups, he may well be wrong but his enthusiasm and overall knowledge is always worth a read.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Likewise, BIG call Steve. I've been banging on for the last few days about model uncertainty- Retron has said the same- the only certainty is, well uncertainty.


IF this is game on, then I expect the models to be showing some form of ensemble support in the next 24 hours.


Fascinating model watching.


Big call Steve, big call.

Quantum
31 December 2015 13:36:38

This may be completely out there but doesn't the NAVGEM model changes in arctic sea ice, whereas the GFS doesn't? And given all this warm air in the arctic, perhaps that is an important factor?


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
croydon courier
31 December 2015 13:52:50

I can't read charts - I learn scraps from the posts of the greater skills of those who post them on here.


BUT...things I have learned from the last few years of avid (but usually disappointed) site following are:


1) GFS is keen to push the Atlantic train through all the time - especially when it is not sure how to deal with an upcoming pattern change


2) FI gets closer and closer when there is a pattern change


3) Models flip-flop about before settling on a solution only 24-48 hours before a pattern change.


Whilst I would not dream of making a prediction on what is forthcoming, one thing I feel confident about is that a change is on the way.


For the sake of those up north, lets hope it's dry for a while.


For the sake of fellow coldies, lets hope there's some snow!


As Sherlock Holmes would say "The game is afoot!"

picturesareme
31 December 2015 13:57:11

Could you have not quoted the relevant parts for us?? Rather then post a large post of mumbo-jumbo that has now screwed up the this forum page when viewed from a mobile device??

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