If the polar Vortex is weakening why are we progged to see no end in sight for the Atlantic barrage for next 2 weeks at least ?

Should be a lot of interesting convective weather too with those low heights and pressures. Hailstorms, thunderstorms..

More interesting at least than weeks of permanent tropical maritime clag IMO.

yes, more vile output. Stormy, cooler and wet just about sums it up. I am really lost as to how we get HP in our vicinity to calm things down. flooding will be sadly making headlines again in the coming week or so if some of this verifies. 

A bit too warm for most, but in years gone by that 528 line over us would have generated some more interest.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1983.gif

Still some options for height rises in Greenland... too early to give up on cold yet!

Luckily we won't be in a phase of high tides, but the south and western side of the country can expect some large waves and erosion.

Yes, that happened in January 2014 as active systems moved in from the west/southwest.

For all we know it could be freezing easterlies in 14 days time. But a weakening polar vortex means a more wavy jet, it doesn't mean we are guaranteed to be on the right side of the wave. Nevertheless, as the flow becomes more meridonal the probability of a cold spell increases. 

I'm not sure about Monday but it looks quite conducive for snow to relatively low levels up here on Tuesday. That aside the 12z output continues with the very unsettled picture with more stupid amounts of rain and damaging winds at times. Less mild than recently but that cold to the NE really doesn't want to "play ball".

Lots of details still to be determined and this looks like being the case on a daily basis - even more so than usual!

Thanks for the earlier response.  I was going to post that the spread has to be either dam or millibars; I had always assumed the former. At least the 850hPa spread chart is easier to interpret because it's showing degrees celsius....

The 12Z is a massive upgrade, no one should rule out a cold spell before 180 hours with this. The trend for rising heights over Greenland continues, while a ridge and cold pool is maintained over scandanavia. 

There has been a signal for pressure to fall towards Scandinavia and bring us all into the colder air, but sadly nothing yet (out to T+264) to block or divert the jet.

For the Midlands and maybe northern Home Counties there's a rare thing from the 12z, widespread snow for a while. Too far out to take seriously but of interest nonetheless. 

We really need to watch situations like this

If the isobars open out and the winds are south easterly, evaporational cooling will kick in a big way. Do not rule out widespread surprise snowfall next week. Perhaps more interestingly, why are the isobars widening out? Some of the energy is still going SE, and the 12Z is similar to the most optimistic ensembles of the 6Z.

After the 12Z the odds of a cold spell in the near future probably increased from 10% to 25%

Are we really going to see that much rain? Low heights look intimidating, but we had them alot during 2013 and there was no mass flooding.

The thing that causes problem rain is warmth and moisture + a lifting mechanism (usually a cold front). Despite the outlook looking LP dominated we are to the north of any triple point, and this is especially the case of the likes of Cumbria, Yorkshire e.c.t.

Showers yes, and some rain when occluded fronts pass by, but certainty not the totals we saw under a dominant south westerly. And cold air is not that far away, snow should not be ruled out and in fact I expect shetland is likely to see some disruptive snow next week.

It does look as though to me that while it is likely to remain zonal, it is not likely to be of the same type of zonality that we experienced throughout last month and November. Temps to be look like returning to nearer average, especially the further north one happens to be.

BBc weather about an hour ago forecast up to 200 mm for parts of NE scotland from tomo through monday