http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=6&carte=&mode=0

 

i  think  the one we  got to keep an eye on  jan 8  low of 940  over  Scotland  that looking nasty   if if comes off

I think you misinterpreted my post. I was referring to storm force winds

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=84&carte=2000

an easterly of sorts makes the fax carts but short lived.The collapse of the HP block looks a bit sudden.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY JAN 1ST 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressue over the UK this morning will decline ahead of Low pressure and troughs moving into the SW of England later today, tonight and tomorrow filling slowly but with cyclonic strong winds for a time in the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from 1700ft over Scotland and 4000ft over Southern England gradually rising from the SW later but remaining low over Scotland with some showery snowfall over the Grampians.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Continuing unsettled and very windy at times and becoming less mild with further heavy rain or showers at times with snow possible on Northern hills for a time next week at least.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The main theme of the Jet Stream shows the flow remaining a dominant force in the weather across the UK over the coming couple of weeks. It becomes rather variable or to the South of the UK in the immediate future before strengthening markedly again in a West to East flow over Southern England and Northern France for much of next week. Towards the end of the period the flow becomes more undulating North and South across the UK as the theme by that time remains less clear.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The theme of the GFS operational run today shows the next week to 10 days as being wet and very windy at times across the UK as Low pressure makes the UK it's home with various centres moving into the SW and forming a complex system across the UK. An intense storm is shown to cross the UK next Friday with storm force winds and heavy rain which then is the beginning of a slow change to drier and less volatile conditions as High pressure slowly builds up from the SW with dry and bright conditions especially across the South and East late in the period perhaps with some frost at night for a time but more likely milder in a weak SW flow with a little rain in the North and West as the High resides to the SE of the UK.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is broadly similar in theme to the operational with a stormy week to 10 days as deep Low pressure areas continue to run across the Atlantic into the UK before winds fall lighter and pressure rises across the UK for a time later in the period although fronts still bring occasional rain at the end of the period to many with temperatures never far from the seasonal average across the UK but within much lighter breezes.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today continues to look very unsettled across the UK next week as Low pressure close to Southern England early in the week only slowly fills and ebbs away East to be absorbed by a new powerful Atlantic Low pressure South of Iceland owards the end of next week sweeping more heavy rain and strong winds NE across the UK late in the period. Some snowfall is likely across the higher ground of the North and East through the week gradually receding back to the NE late next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts main theme today indicates further Atlantic troughs and Low pressure moving directly into the UK from the Atlantic through the next 5 days with cyclonic and often strong winds across the UK with rain or showers at times and perhaps a little snow at times on the hills of the North and East.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning maintains very wet and volatile conditions across the UK throughout it's 19 day span with no real letup showing even at the end of the run as the Atlantic remains in control with heavy rain and showers, prolonged at times plus strong winds the main features throughout with conditions just cold enough for a little snow at times on Northern hills especially in the showery spells.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too offers little reprieve from the recent rains across the UK with Low pressure areas streaming into the South of the UK from off the Atlantic gradually superceded by a resumption of strong SW winds for many with rain and gales at times for all later next week and any snow after affecting some high ground quite a way South early next week by the end of the period restricted more and more to the high ground of the far North and NE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows a continuation of unsettled and often wet weather with gales or severe gales and heavy rain across all areas of the UK in cyclonic winds allowing colder air in the North and East with some snowfall over the hlls. Then later next week and towards the end of the run milder air will sweep NE across all areas but with a resumption of very wet conditions at times especially across the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart remains poor with unsettled conditions across the UK maintained in a largely Westerly flow. The Jet Stream remains likely to be positioned a long way South so conditions are unlikely to be particularly mild but equally not that cold either with the main message being further wind and rain across the UK especially to the West and NW and any snowfall rstricted to the high ground of the North only.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output longer term today shows no let up in the basically wet and sometimes stormy conditions under Low pressure across all of the UK for the foreseeable future.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.1 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.2 pts to UKMO at 87.3 pts then GFS at 85.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 62.9 pts over GFS's 58.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 46.2 pts to 42.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS At the risk of sounding like a broken record there seems little New Years cheer in the models if it's something drier and quieter that you seek across the UK over the next 10-14 days. The main theme remains for Low pressure to continue to pile into the UK from the West on quite Southerly latitudes over the next week with some colder air infiltrating into the East and North of the UK from Europe turning some of the rain to snow at times over the higher ground. In the South rain is more certin and gales or even severe gales are possible too with the heaviest rain likely to be in the NE and SW. Then as we move towards the end of next week it looks like a large storm syste will develop or move up to the NW of the UK with renewed SW gale or severe gales for many areas with rain sweeping NE too displacing much of the colder air tantalisingly close to the North and East of the UK earlier in the period. From that point on most output suggests largely unsettled weather continuing until the end of the two week period though there is some suggestion that High pressure may try to edge up from the SW or West later with less wind and rain but with winds still showing an Atlantic origin for the most part anything very cold and widespread looks unlikely with some rain still possible. To be honest that's as good as it gets in today's output which will give little relief to the areas already afflicted by flooding with a very real risk of other areas becoming affected too next week, especially in the SW. For those looking for snow there is better news than so far this Winter with the hills of the North and East in particular looking likely to see a little but in the grand scheme of things it really is a penny in the ocean of the overall wet and windy theme still ruling much of the Atlantic Ocean and NW Europe for a considerable time to come.

Next Update on Saturday January 2nd 2016 at 09:00 approx

---

Very poor outlook this morning for cold fans and the flooded areas, along with a very sobering update from Ian F over on the other side last night.

 

As Retron says, a progressive outlook now looks likely with attendant pressure rise over Southern Europe, and that looks to take us well into January.

 

 

---

Indeed.  Bad news all round.  The final nail in the coffin for the 2 day cold snap down here - SW Holland ens. from the 0z.  It will at least not be super mild for while, I mean, I had to cut the grass on New Year's Eve!

---

Happy New Year. The models seem to have a worse hangover than I do. Were the overnight runs hit by a data shortage?

---

More of an alcohol overload methinks.

---

Happy New Year folks!

What I will say about the model output this morning is that while it looks as though the unsettled spell will continue for a while longer, if the models have it right it looks to be of a rather less mild type than has often been the case in the past couple of months. Could well be some snowfall in northern areas at least.

---

Yes, going to plan in terms of what most winter forecasts have been saying since November. Shame the models teased us with HLB and sucked the believers in again. Always happens and probably always will.

I expect the site traffic will drop away again like it did for much of December. I think we now have to rely on our El Nino" sting in the tail "late winter cold snap, if it ever comes at all

 

---

 

You mean like that El Niño late season cold snap in Feb 1998...?

---

That's not exactly what he said is it? 

You must be positively ecstatic at this mornings runs Ian? 

---

If this morning's output is to be believed, this winter is going to go down in the hall of winter infamy as even worse than that of 2013-14.

Back to the drudgery of the 1990s - mildfest after mildfest, with the added "bonus" of widespread flooding.

What an appalling weather start to 2016!

Happy New Year folks and enjoy your hangovers!

I am now a convert to the dangers of global warming - it is clearly impacting on our weather already.

---

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016010106/gfsnh-0-240.png?6

Features like this will keep appearing now. I don't mind rain but I could do without wind damage

Quite a terrible outlook.

---

This chart looks strange to me with isobars crossing each other. Happy new year every one, hope your heads are not hurting to much

It isn't what he said, it was as much my view as anything else. I actually predicted January to be the potential record breaker rather than December but I haven't seen anything to dissuade me from my original view that 97/98 was the obvious analogue for this winter. Never be afraid of the obvious.

I'm far from ecstatic; not least in terms of the potential further misery that this pattern will bring to the already flooded areas.

 

 

---

Shropshire, you know how you're a previously banned member who was given a reprieve? I would advise you to tread most carefully when posting here from now on in. If you start filling this thread with your usual agenda-ridden mumbo jumbo, you'll soon be the artist formally known as Shropshire. Got the message?

On topic from now on please.

---

 

Yes also note how mild much of the US is, no wonder this is being compared to the 'years without a winter' over there - 1877/78 and of course most recently 1997/98.

---

 

I don't wish to be anything other than on topic David, was merely responding to a jab in the midriff from John P.

 

 

---

Thank you for tho output read each day Martin. Happy New year to all readers,,

---

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif

At last, a chart which I like  High Pressure =

---

the eastern half of the USA going very cold later next week and beyond. we don't look overly mild this month. not sure looking back over the past few weeks is an solidly effective tool for predicting the next month or so. 

Looking very unsettled with showers or longer spells of heavy rain with the risk of stormy weather throughout next week.

Temps not far from average.

---

And you know what happens when that part of the world goes cold?

We seem to be jumping from the frying pan into the fire The problem is the Scandi-Euro high retreating thus enabling low pressure systems to go flying straight through the UK. When high pressure held firm to the east of the UK, at least Southern and Eastern parts had remained relatively unscathed so far this season (which is of little comfort to the affected western and northern parts, of course), now it looks set to turn Winter 2014 all over again and this pattern will be hard to shift once established.
The only little bit of saving grace is less in the way of long-lasting orographic rainfall and more in the way of fast moving frontal rain belts with gaps in between . . . unless we end up with stalling frontal systems hanging over the country if the jet stream drops further south.

---

May have missed or run or TWO, but is the dartboard back 7th- 8th. Thought the last run saw it somewhat in a lesser extent, hic.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1629.gif