I so deserve it - but who's paying??? :(

Enjoy

HP building over Greenland and a blocking over Scandinavia preventing those Atlantic low's from sweeping through - A perfect set up for cold weather:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

But this is FI and tomorrow we will probably be back to square one. However, it's nice to see a change in the GFS model charts. It's meant to be getting colder by then anyway. - The Question is will it materialise and will the Met Office change their forecast!?

Too far out to be taken seriously unfortunately, but that set-up is exactly what the flood-hit areas of the country could be doing with more than anything right now.

The Parallel run did something similar earlier today.

Temperatures at or below freezing throughout most of Europe in FI range:

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20160102/18/384/maxtemp.png

This could flip back tomorrow but at least we are heading in the right direction for colder weather fans. BUT do you think this run could be a cold outlier?  

It's popped up on a couple of runs now. The parallel run had it too.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1

And it's a good set up for a cold shot that we haven't really seen on the models this winter!

Hope it shows up some more, closer in.

The antecedent conditions were rather different, it has to be said.

Well maybe it's just me but I think blocked patterns have appeared more often in the FI over the last few days than at other times this winter. Not all of them deliver cold to us, but a few have been close, and this is one of the best.

Suggests we might get a break from the Atlantic train if nothing else. Fingers crossed for cold.

Definitely worth watching to see if the trend continues.

Don't discount the possibility altogether - a long time ago, after a similar crazy surge of WAA into the high arctic, the synoptics looked very similar eighteen days later.

Today's 0z ECM ensembles - not really much to say other than it looks like being a little bit above average temperature wise down here.

A very mobile outlook across the board this morning. Gfs control brings HP to Greenland later on but again this is likely another mirage.
Until the NAO projection flips to coincide with met office 'colder later in winter' theory maybe I'll take a couple of hibernation weeks off like Steve.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY JAN 3RD 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A deep depression lies to the West of the UK with troughs swinging NE across the South and West before deceleratiung across NE Britain with a strong SE flow ahead of them and a showery SW flow behind them.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from between 1500ft just to the NE of Scotland to above 5000ft over SW England. Snowfall can be expected across the hills of Scotland today and tomorrow especially the mountains of NE Scotland

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Continuing unsettled and very windy at times with further heavy rain or showers at times with snow possible on Northern hills for a time next week at least.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream incessantly crossing quickly East across the Atlantic and Southern England and France. Low pressure remains close by over the UK with the flow moving slightly further North in the second week but maintaining a strong profile across the Atlantic and the British Isles still even at Day 14.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The theme of the GFS operational run today shows 14 days of unsettled and often windy conditions with gales and severe gales at times. In the first week rainfall will be very variable under slow moving Low pressure with colder air across the North giving rise to some snowfall over the hills. Then in the second week a severe storm is shown early next week which then brings a more undulating pattern between wet and windy spells and brighter colder weather with more scattered showers and quieter weather though the main theme of the weather remains very volatile and Atlantic driven throughout.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run this morning with the wet and very windy spell continuing over the next 10 days or so with a build of pressure across the UK late in the two week period bringing a change to fine, cold and settled weather across the UK with sharp overnight frosts, light winds and freezing fog patches but sunny spells by day.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today shows a wet and very windy week to come as Low pressure remains over and later to the NW of the UK with a strong Westerly flow across the UK driving bands of rain and showers across all areas with snow at times over the Northern hills in the form of showers but more generally over the hills of the NE in the short term in a cold SE flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a continuation of the unsettled spell with strong winds and rain at times on troughs repeatedly driven across the UK in a SW flow decelerating and becoming slow moving early in the week across the NE of the UK.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning also shows an unsettled and often windy 10 days of weather to come across the UK with temperatures near average for most of the time. Winds will exceed gale or severe gale at times especially near coasts of the South and West. Later in the period a spell of severe gsles are possible more widely as a vigorous Low swings NE over the NW bringing mild air temporarily to the South and East but more importantly heavy rainfall yet again especially over the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows no differences to the rest with winds off the Atlntic throughout, strong at times and delivering spells of rain and showers in association of Low pressure either over or to the NW of the UK. Some cold air under a SE flow in the NE will be swept away from midweek with temperatures generally near normal and perhaps a bit above at times in the SE by this time next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows little respite too with deep Low pressure across the UK throughout with cyclonic winds, sometimes strong to gale force and accompanied by rain and showers with snow on the hills of the North at times, In the very end days of the run a slowing Jet flow across the Atlantic pumps up a ridge which looks like it could give rise to somewhat drier, quieter and colder weather across the UK soon after the expiry of the Day 10 period as it drifts across the UK from the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart remains mostly Atlantic driven though small but subtle differences lie within the chart. It looks as though Low pressure will divide to both the NE and NW with room for a cold ridge to develop close to the UK at that time with the Jet Stream likely to remain well South of the UK. So while some rain at times remains the overall theme temperatures close to average and spells of lighter winds could give rise to some night frosts and drier spells.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output longer term today shows no significant let up in the basically wet and windy conditions though a growing trend for High pressure to build temporarily at least to the West of the UK is hinted at still from 10 days.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 96.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.5 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts then GFS at 86.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 64.5 pts over GFS's 60.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 46.2 pts to 45.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS We remain focused on looking into the realms of fantasy time points within the models this morning to see prospects of any major change in the overall theme of wet and windy weather across the UK. There remains little desire from any output to remove deep Low pressure areas from lying either across the UK or close to the NW each bringing spells of wet and very windy weather with gales at times and severe gales possible too in places later. Temperatures look like being close to average which in the strong winds will feel colder than the mercury suggests especially when coupled with the rain. Snowfall will occur locally, mostly in the NE of the UK early in the week and more generally in showers over Central and Northern high ground later. There will be some mild air over SE Europe at times later which may flirt with the SE at times in the second week but the theme remains too wet and wild to be of great significance in the UK on this morning's output. In the longer term there remains some interest in lifting pressure levels somewhat from the West as the Jet flow weakens and High pressure is ridged North somewhat over the Atlantic. This develops into a full blown cold anticyclone on the last frames of the GFS Operational run this morning and ECM too reflects this possibility too over the Atlantic in it's final day which if verified would give a welcome relief from the rain and winds of recently and give rise to some frosty weather unseen so far this Winter just outside of the term of it's run this morning. It is unfortunate that this change is still so far out and subject to moderation or removal from the runs in the coming days but changes have to start somewhere and while there might not be the first signs of a very wintry spell of weather shown something quieter and more seasonal in the form of dry, cold weather with frosty nights would at least be quite welcome to many I'm sure. Lets hope it develops and spreads between the upcoming outputs in the days to come.

Next Update on Monday January 4th 2016 at 09:00 approx

 Can anybody tell me why this secondary low on the ECM 192:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/192_mslp850.png?cb=817

instead of doing what all the others have done, is modelled to move further south and swing away East as a trough attached to that main low:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

resulting in a more favourable set-up by 240?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016010306/gfsnh-0-120.png?6

Pressure higher over Greenland on this run, perhaps may result in a better FI