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The only white stuff you'll see in this run, again is likely to be on the higher peaks in Scotland & maybe northern England.
Originally Posted by: Sinky1970
That suggests it would be milder than today where it is snowing to moderate levels on the Scottish hills.
Not widespread snow but the overall trend is the same on the 06s run. The details, if the setup materialises, will be determined in a week or so.
I knew when I saw just 2 pages added to this thread from late last night that subsequent output hadn't been good.
Buckle-up, chaps & chapesses, the roller coaster is a-rollin'.
GFS6z is very probably an outlier. If we're lucky it will be a mild one.
Originally Posted by: Saint Snow
Looks OK to me:
Originally Posted by: GlenH
YEah but that snapshot is from a northerly reload at the far end of the run, which is definitely a t*pp**r. :)
Northerly reload at the end doesn't look very promising but isn't worth worrying about. The interest is next week IMO.
Originally Posted by: Rob K
Yeah I know, but everyone seems to be worrying about a quick break down.
My point was that, as the 06z GFS run shows, even if the first Atlantic HP does topple, it doesn't mean it's back to zonal SWlys ad infinitum.
I'll put £50 on that GFS chart at 384 hrs looking completely foreign to the one in 6 hrs time. (IF i had any money that is! )
I'd place that bet on every single GFS run there's ever been or is ever likely to be.
Models seems to have dropped the idea of building heights over Greenland.
Without a GH the pattern cannot sustain. Disappointing runs today. The best we can hope for is the 2 day toppler now
The interest is next week IMO.
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze
Not with GFS it aint. The 0z & 6z Ops are pretty crap - cold rain followed by a sh*tty 'dry high', then some more cold rain. The ECM 0z is boringly dry.
I appreciate there's a ton of uncertainty around (and different perturbations are showing something decent), but the current Op output at least is pretty crap.
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
Some of the GEFS6z perturbations raise heights over Greenland. I wouldn't discount the idea yet in the same way I'd not rule out a less cold outcome.
Not really. The GFS mean still has a decent Greenland High. http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/21_192_500mb.png?cb
As does the ECM, although less robust perhaps: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif
And the UKMO, although it doesn't go out very far, also looks pretty solid, with a 1040mb nosing in right at the top. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
Apart from the ECM...
http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016010500/EDH101-240.GIF
GEFS6z update:
At least it's not looking quite so wet for most people now ...... So that's 99.9% of the population who will be happy. Just the rest of us miserable lot still moaning cos dry means no 6ft snowdrifts
Chris fawkes just now said colder next week, sunnier ( which wouldnt be difficult), night time frosts, drier but a few wintry showers mainly in the North . Normal January weather really
Great post by Steve Murr over on t'other channel, his dismissal of GP's earlier post regarding shortwaves not being the spoiler is spot on. I think it's more less nailed that we'll get colder next week but I'm still only seeing a few days before the Atlantic's back in control.
Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles
Actually going off the latest GFS ensembles I don't really see the Atlantic back in control. The Manchester pressure ensembles increase and the rainfall spikes become less pronounce. Looks more anticyclonic to me.
