Agreed.

That Azores High does look to be waiting to pounce in a day or two's time unfortunately.

Deja vu at t336:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=336&code=0&mode=0

see t108:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=108&mode=0

Could go either way but the BBC are quite bullish about the cold spell a week away, so that is a positive

The patterns look similar but the latter is much colder than the former. 

Stunning GEM with the a true GH

Shame its GEM though!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2016010512/gemnh-0-162.png?12

Interesting GFS run, we don't end on a mega Euro slug finally which is nice to see and different to the last two runs though that far out of course a pinch of salt is required.  I do like how we keep repeated northerly shots on the GFS (albeit not that cold) and the azores high never seems to really get the chance to take up its Nov/Dec 2015 residence. GEM disappointing in FI (GH isn't but end result is) but only one run, should at least feel like January at times whatever happens and always a chance of a surprise snow event somewhere.  Winter far from over I think and quite interesting to see how this situation evolves over the runs before next week.

We somehow though avoid the proper cold air a very strange run.

People need to calm down, and stop chasing EXTREME cold scenarios. All im after is a bit of wintry weather... Im not expecting anything extreme

So looking at this charts - i still see what i want to see at this stage.

Diving Jet.
HP at the pole.
A very confused Atlantic.
HP over the north of us

(edit^ how many of us would have bitten your hand off to see that a couple of weeks ago)

Youd think given the cumilative experience of some of the peeps on this site that we wouldnt be getting upset at not seeing extreme cold straight away. The detail at this stage should be ignored until we get within say 3 to 4 days away.

I would be more nervous if we saw the golden challace on the charts today, for it to be slowly downgraded every day.

With the pieces in place so far, we can only expect nice surprises.

Thats an absolute beauty though snow for many even the south .

In Wetter

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Yes, that is a cracker. 

Yes surprised not more comment on it as it's the chart of the winter so far for me. Stunning for your location Inparticular.

GEFS supports idea of brief cold spell.At 192h 60:40 cold to mild with either GH or Mid Atlantic HP  ridging to support north or north westerly flow around LP moving way east.

However by 264h milder scenarios out number colder ones by 60:40. 

Is that not what one would expect at that greater time scale Roger as the so called default takes over?

Generally good cold signal

you forgot to mention the control is a stonking run

 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=360&mode=0&carte=1

Even if the cold snap is brief, it gives us hope. Many winters in the UK are mild throughout - however, if we get a decent cold snap, then there is every chance of further cold spells during the remainder of the winter - that has to be better than those winters which are interminably mild and dull.

Huge spread on the GEFS12z but most supporting a colder spell.

Yes and for many of those Ps the dip lasts a good week. How refreshing this all is.

12Z GFS ENS in isolation an improvement imo. Mean for London around -4 from the 13th for many days. Also a 4 on the snow row for only the second time this winter. My rough guide is 5 for a decent chance of snow.
My subjective view is the NWP has drifted towards colder for longer on the 12Z runs - with ECM still oozing out of course.

edit: R4 17.55 forecast 'now next week turning much colder with even snow around'