These charts we are seeing now are a world away from those we've been used to seeing for the past two months, that is for sure.

May the trend be our friend...

We've been here before of course, with apparent agreement on a significant cold spell, only for things to go pear-shaped... BUT the hemispheric setup and tropical drivers this time around are easily as good as I've seen since the precursor to March 2013 so I'm feeling optimistic 

A check of the postage stamps for GEFS 00z at +180 reveals a majority with a decent mid-Atlantic ridge and almost half are playing with a proper block over Greenland. Only around 10% power the Atlantic through 

Really some of the ensemble based output this morning is phenomenal, for example:

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/684662502945353728

Which displays a strong signal from both GEFS and the EC ensembles for blocking to the NW and over Siberia - always a fun combination to work with as a pronounced Scandi trough wanders about and teases at pulling in extra cold from the NE for example.

Even that lackluster ECM 00z op run isn't half bad, with snow chances in England on Tuesday thanks to that shortwave feature and continued hints of sliding lows into Scandi making things interesting beyond day 10. It essentially seems to be heading for a version of the GFS 00z in which everything is located a thousand or so miles further east - still plenty cold but drier and arguably a lot less interesting for some. Depends what exactly you're after I suppose!

Now then, where's my skeptic hat, I need that to remain level-headed!

Good summary, using terminology I understand!

Nice to see the MO emotional roller coaster on a peak this morning.

PS - WRT Steve Murr, wasn't his 'out on a limb' post the other day talking about the transfer of heights from the Siberian/Scandinavian High westwards toward Greenland (or at least the transfer of conditions conducive to building heights over Greenland)? It made sense at the time - and current output does lend some credence )if it comes off), even if there's been a delay in the development of a Greenland High

Thanks James,  take note cc

I agree Saint think that was ot from Kev perhaps his having a bad hair day.

In many ways, it's just a pity we didn't get the kind of pattern change now being suggested by the models a month or so ago. Had there been a change around then, many of the communities across the country that have suffered terrible flooding in the past month probably would have been spared from it. Where I live, the ground was well saturated by the time we reached the end of November, so sadly the amount of flooding that has occured since hasn't been any great surprise.

 Ahh, but if you drive the train, as I do for the day (and night) job, then you know the train is at least moving, even if no one can see it yet. It's all about relativity and observation.

oooh, a bit Eric Cantona there. I'll get my coat!

Steve M was suggesting retrogression of the upper high from northern Russia to Greenland, altogether a different mechanism to the currently projected evolution.

Steve has some interesting insights to offer but he does get carried away at times and personally I've learned to treat his musings as just another knowledgeable view on offer. Generally they need lots of pieces of the jigsaw puzzle to fall exactly right and we all know that's generally a long shot.

Out to 144 looking pretty similar.

You missed out the reference to seagulls....

As a driver you'll know about trains breaking down or being re-routed...

Not really excited by this upcoming cold spell in terms of actual cold (northerlies in this location usually deliver temp of average or just below), but it will be nice to have some dry weather for a change. Particularly welcome for areas such as Cumbria and N.E. Scotland which have suffered such dramatic flooding so far this winter.

LOL! At least I always get a seat!!

Bit of a Carlsberg run

The distribution of energy coming out of the States is very important, the GFS has a lot going into the Southern arm thus propping up the Atlantic/Greenland High. The ECM has less of this energy and thus the Azores Low is WSW of the High by day 8. 

Subsequent runs will resolve this and is key to longevity, obviously the holy grail would be full link up with the Atlantic/Greenland High with the raised Arctic heights as this would be a lock in for cold.

Not sure what your expectations are, unless you'll only settle for a 1963 scenario!

That cheeky Azores low once again doing the business. A great run if you like cold, frost and snow.

The GFS 06z does seem to show a more "firmed up" northerly airflow for this time next week - and it doesn't even need a Scandi high to keep the cold going (instead totally relying on a Greeny and pressure falling off towards the south east). However, it does look somewhat slack and flaccid and like others said, a slack northerly flow doesn't really do much for me in terms of snow potential as it would have got modified by the time it arrives at this end as the 850's are still borderline - even in January.
  However, to see anything other than relentless bombing lows crashing in from the Atlantic showing up on the charts is a sight for sore eyes. Frosty nights and gin blue skies by day suits me just fine, any snowfall that does come out of it would be a bit of an extra bonus as far as my back yard is concerned.

Far less rainfall though as has been suggested above.  Northerlies tend to bring good frosts UK wide and the threat of heavy snow for Scotland.

The trend is good and Southerners looking out for an Easterly should not discount disturbances flowing up from the South West!

A change to colder weather is now on the way - open to speculation is how cold and for how long.

It will be interesting tonight to see if the ECM continues to topple or retrogresses to Greenie

this is the same for most of us on here. In my mind though, a sustained block of cold air is the first step we need. A northerly with widespread -6--10c uppers is bound to have troughs and kinks embedded within that are rarely seen at this distance. Similarly the orientation of the wind only needs go a few degrees to the east to encourage limited coastal convection, so I wouldn't worry too much about snow charts at this stage - although you are right in principle. This doesn't appear like your average northerly either! 

If we only get cold rain from the proposed set-up then it's time to pack up ! 

My in-laws are off to the Alps that weekend - better tell them to take extra thermals!