Not always as you describe but I know what you mean.  

GFS seems determined to default to low pressure coming east but it's as you describe with Arctic air making it again deep in FI. There certainly is a recurring theme for northerly outbreaks from the middle of next week and it's as always pointless chasing specifics in these situations. The trend looks OK and with the guys at the Met Office seeing a pattern change that's good enough for now.

Interestingly the Meto Fax charts are more progressive, with colder air already in northern scotland by T120

The overall picture seems to be alot further south, it looks a lot more robust and colder than the GFS and ECM are making out

GFS

ECM

Excellent ens from the 18Z GEFS suite tonight, to match the significant cold cluster in the ECM pack earlier this evening. A very significant number draw in easterlies at various points in low res, even from the most unlikely of scenarios. Coupled with MH and IFs tweets earlier about a second bite at the cherry, along with an increasingly bullish BBC with regards to referencing the incoming cold next week, that leads me to a more optimistic place than yesterday. Initial cold spell certainly looks less potent than a few days ago but isn't that always the way? Key is to find out whether background drivers can sustain the pattern in the longer term and introduce something 'more meaningful' over following days/week or so. On that basis am encouraged by ECM and GEFS pack tonight. 

Fyi: eastern england: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=375&y=87

N England temps: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=294&y=34&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 

belgium: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=510&y=77 

Has anyone seen the JMA 12Z?

Its full on snowmapocalypse with a monster greenland high and a siberian easterly.

only reiterate what I said before - the number of emf and gfs ens easterly solutions are quite notable - none of the outrageous JMa variety though. Just another trend at this point...

Looks more like a straight northerly to me. Wouldn't say no but there wouldn't be any snow down here from that one!

I think he's referring to the jma on meteociel which now goes out to 264 hrs on the 12z.

This certainly looks snowy to me!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2016010512/J264-21.GIF?06-12

Meanwhile the 00z runs look like big upgrades so far this morning if you look cold weather!

Nice 00z isn't it?  Ends on a potent easterly deep in FI 

indeed, approximately 60% of the ensemble suite are going for extended cold on the 0z with several along the lines of the JMA and 850 hPA temps typically -8 to -10. Half a dozen or so runs don't want to play ball and cut short any cold spell with positive 850 hPA temps, but generally another upgrade this morning with the Atlantic high looking keener on joining up with the Greenland high. UKMO also looks good at T144.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016010600/graphe6_1000_255_93___.gif

The GFS run is part of the main cold cluster in the ensemble pack, better heights to the NW in this mornings run with the core of the High solid in the Atlantic for a long time. UKMO backs up its 12z run from yesterday.

METO by implication still see a toppler as most likely , though this has been NWP led so far.

GEFS0z is the coldest of the winter.

More potential there than Steve Murr's New Years Eve farce. At least we can see the models are showing potential rather than based on someone's wishful thinking...

Great looking charts this morning, although I am not sure that the personal dig at Steve M adds any value to the discussion. I have always found his analysis and detailed reasoning interesting and have learnt a lot whether he was correct or not in his forecast. At least he goes into great depth to justify why he thinks certain scenarios may be achieved rather than a hope cast. Let's hope he is not put off by detrimental posts as he would be sorely missed by many

Big upgrade from the ECM as well snow event possible on the 12th. Stunning upgrades this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

ECM0z is colder than the 12z but going a similar way by 216.

Probably the coldest for at least 3 years stunning!

UKMO also looks like it's setting up a sustained cold spell. Cold and snowy by day 5 and 6

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Morning all, some quite big upgrades for cold  if you care to take a look at the latest charts. UKMO on board too, even our local radio station is banging on about cold next week. Not too sure about the longevity or "snowfulness" atm, but a very interesting set nonetheless.

I wish I had time to post some JFF Marcus-type Gooner charts, but I'm late for work.

Bye for now

The ECM which is the least spectacular of the big 3 this morning but still cold, still wants to get the HP to Greenland at day 10 which is a very positive sign in my book for a longer cold spell.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1021

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

Yes a very nice METO.As you say a lot to lok at this morning.ECM better than yesterday . A good number GEFS ensembles suggest  a slightly longer cold spell out to 240h.

More potential there than Steve Murr's New Years Eve farce. At least we can see the models are showing potential rather than based on someone's wishful thinking...

Agree a bit harsh though I suspect it probably wasn't meant how it sounds, I enjoy reading posts from Stormchaser, Brian, Retron, Steve M and other seasoned posters on here as it has really helped me understand a lot more about how to read ensembles, trends etc than I did before and I am still learning!  Steve M wrote as he saw it which was a chance of a good easterly at the time - yes he likes the snow as do a lot of us, so he was just saying what I would imagine a lot of us would hope would happen.

However it wasn't just a cold ramp -  some good synoptic/scientific points he put in there to back it up which might have come off, but as we all know models and easterly's don't go together well and it is rare for an easterly to have just the right synoptics e.g. March 2013 , Jan 87 and Feb 91 etc. Unfortunately it didn't come together and most of the UK was not affected though if you were in the Shetland islands you may disagree! It was a close thing though - bottom line is all posters please do continue posting your analysis as it is an interesting read and one of the reasons I only read this weather forum and no other, would be a shame if people are put off posting due to comments from other members.

Anyway back on topic and a big upgrade from GFS this morning though ECM FI still troublesome as Brian mentioned - would be good if that falls in line on the next run.  Expect many swings back and forth from cold though as I am not sure the models have this properly sorted out just yet, hopefully the colder theme will become a stronger feature even more so by the weekend we will see.

The key in allowing the block to take root and extend N appears to be the behaviour of the Canadian trough and maybe more importantly the puddle of energy down SW of the Azores. NOAA have been suggesting GFS in particular was being too progressive with the Canadian low and it would likely 'meander' - this is now the case on the 00Z OP. Also, and not just GFS, the 00Z runs have made much more of the low in the mid-Atlantic such that it serves to prop-up the high and eventually give it the nudge it needs to go towards and marry the Greenland block.

Small changes having big effects and all that. 

The upshot is a much more prolonged cold spell is likely for W Europe - detail to be announced!