GEM is poor compared to the big 3 but still produces a cheeky easterly on the 14th.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=0&carte=0

Where is Gooner?! And Matty, he's not been around all season.....

Yes much prefer the orientation of the GFS/UKMO but even the ECM has enough longevity to give wintry chances for most.

A real 1947 look to ukmo and GFS to some extent this morning!

The outlook is fair to say is cold, maybe even locally very cold with a snow risk for some.

Detail to far away to pin down though.

Exceptional Mean from the ECM this morning. Very good GH

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1682.html

The dream is to get the GH Arctic high link up and that looks very possible just a week away.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reemnh1681.html

The Mean still very cold by day 10

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2402.html

Looking at the ECM mean, I'm guessing the op was one of the less cold options from day 8

Still plenty of ways this can go wrong and in this country we need almost 100% ens  backing for a cold spell. We're still a long way from that. 

"The train is coming only when you can see the train", as Ian Brown used to say

Sneaky ninja post....

Lol, that comment relates to easterlies Beast.

I know, but the train always derails before it reaches the UK from whatever direction.

I'm possibly being thick, but doesn't this show that the ECM op was one of the coldest options in the ensemble set for Reading, next week? 

Or is the 'deterministic' not the same as the op? 

Yes that's exactly what it shows, in terms of surface temperatures at least. 

Here's the day 10 op. "Faux cold" under a cloudless night-time high?

Im sure Retron will confirm later but it looks like snow on the ground causing ice days for Reading.

Only one ice day that I can see (the 14th) when the op run is colder (for the daytime high) than any of the ensemble members!

3 other days that are barely over freezing suggests snow on the ground.

Yup, snow on the ground. A snow depth chart from ECM has been posted on the other side (minus the copyright info, as per usual)

From what I can see of the GFS 00z run, it doesn't seem to be quite as keen now to bring the atlantic back in any time soon as it did in yesterday's runs. ECM looks OK, except the mid-atlantic High could do with being a little further north in terms of getting a really cold blast.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY JAN 6TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A new depression will swing a set of troughs NE across the UK again later today, these becoming slow moving again across the far NE and followed by a somewhat showery Westerly flow across Southern and western areas tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from between 1500ft just to the NE of Scotland to nearer 4000ft over Southern England rising somewhat for a time tonight before falling again to around 5000ft again tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder and still rather unsettled with some rain, sleet or snow at times and frost at night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream continuing to stream East across France over the next week before a shift of orientation to more of a NW to SE flow across the UK through the second week as a deep trough lies across Scandinavia.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The theme of the GFS operational run today shows two sections this morning with the next week seeing Low pressure sinking down across the UK through the period maintaining cloudy and sometimes wet and windy weather with sunshine and showers too giving some snowfall at times on the hills with time. Then through next week Low pressure drifts off slowly East and allows cold air to sink South overall areas. On this run the air is unstable too with snow and sleet at times, almost anywhere for a time before a short drier interlude under High pressure moving across briefly gives rise to some frosty night and bright days before a return to cold and unsettled weather develops again later with more rain and snow as winds switch to the East.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run this morning with the second week showing all the interest for cold lovers. In the meantime there remains a lot of complex Low pressure over the UK with rain and showers at times and some snow on the hills before all areas become cold and unsettled from early next week with some snow at times, even in the South as low pressure to the East throws cold North or NE winds across the UK until the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today shows Low pressure still in control of the weather but with subtle changes in positioning meaning a stark change for the UK next week. With rain and showers the main message between today and the start of next week is rain or showers with snow on the hills before all areas become cold next week with NW winds and snow showers extending down across the UK to all areas by midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a continuation of the unsettled spell with strong winds and rain at times on troughs repeatedly driven across the UK in a SW flow decelerating and becoming slow moving across the UK with rain and showers at times for all and snow at times on the hills of the North.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning is somewhat different longer term as it shows the current wet and windy weather of the next 4-5 days slowly giving way to dry and bright weather with frosty nights as High pressure builds across the UK later next week. The transition period does show a spell of cold North based winds with some wintry precipitation across parts of the UK for a time before the better weather arrives

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a slow transition from the current wet and Low pressure based theme towards a colder and unstable NW slow as Low pressure moves off towards the East and pressure builds across the Atlantic. This would mean the cold air would turn precipitation to snow at times even in the South next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows a somewhat lesser wintry theme longer term although in the mid term i.e. early next week it also shows a spell of cold NW winds bringing wintry weather SE to many areas as the UK based Low pressure of the weekend goes off to the East and pressure builds over the Atlantic. By day 10 the coldness has modified across the UK but it does look like a Northerly could be renewed soon after the term of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows Low pressure likely to be to the East and High to the West in 10 days time. A generally Northerly flow is likely across the UK with temperatures well down on recent times with frost at night and wintry showers in all exposed locations but a lot of dry and bright weather inland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output continues to strengthen towards drier and colder conditions developing across the UK next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 96.5 pts respectively. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 88.0 pts then GFS at 87.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.1 pts over GFS's 61.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 47.9 pts to 46.1 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS For those seeking cold this morning the models have delivered a set of output that I feel many of them will be happy with this morning. There is almost a 100% guarantee now that at long last we are soon to lose the continuous conveyor belt of Atlantic Low pressure and attendant rain and showers and swap it with a colder flow coming down from the North as Low pressure transfers to a point to the East of the UK while High pressure builds North across the Atlantic. In the short term we still have 4-5 days of familiar Low pressure often parked over the UK and continuing to bring spells of rain and showers and snow over the hills of the North. It's then in the early days of next week when this Low pressure is pulled East to Europe and cold North or NW winds are pushed down across the UK aided by rising pressure over the Atlantic and a marked slow down in the Jet flow. All areas look at risk of some snowfall next week but the favoured coastal locations pointing North will see more than sheltered inland locations which look most likely to see the change in the form of sharp frosts by night and cold crisp days rather than snowfall. Then the question is how long will it last? Well in terms of GFS quite a while this morning as there appears to be a second surge possible later when GFS shows the chance of an easterly developing. ECM on the other hand shows a more measured response to that question and it poses a question at day 10 in as much as there appears a strong chance that the evolution from then also shows a second cold surge likely soon after mid month. The one thing that I can confidently say and have been saying since the hints of cold from the North were shown some days ago is that it is going to happen but for how long this pattern remains once here is open for debate. The pressure pattern look much more favourable for cold next week that at any stage this Winter so far with a Jet stream well South over Europe and High over the Atlantic. Persistent Low pressure to the East should encourage runaway Low pressure from the NW to feed SE over the UK at times each time reinforcing a cold North feed behind them and if High pressure can eventually ridge all the way into Greenland who knows what may develop longer term. Interesting model watching indeed in the days ahead.

Next Update on Thursday January 7th 2016 at 09:00 approx

Except that Reading is still under -4C 850s and off the back of -6/-7 with snow cover so the term 'faux cold' is about as misplaced as it's possible to be.