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Gooner
08 January 2016 18:36:48


It will still feel cold I should imagine



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


cultman1
08 January 2016 18:39:18
So in other words let's cut to the chase! NO proper or even mini cold spell likely next week ,therefore continuation of current mild to coolish weather with the probability of milder weather to follow late in next week with return of S or SW winds . There will be a lot of egg on faces with bbc radio London today implying much colder conditions from Tuesday on for the south of England
Gooner
08 January 2016 18:43:51

So in other words let's cut to the chase! NO proper or even mini cold spell likely next week ,therefore continuation of current mild to coolish weather with the probability of milder weather to follow late in next week with return of S or SW winds . There will be a lot of egg on faces with bbc radio London today implying much colder conditions from Tuesday on for the south of England

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


Wrong


There is cold weather on the way, the 168 charts i posted show that , its not a 2010 type but its going to be colder with frosts for a time


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


SJV
08 January 2016 18:44:11

So in other words let's cut to the chase! NO proper or even mini cold spell likely next week ,therefore continuation of current mild to coolish weather with the probability of milder weather to follow late in next week with return of S or SW winds . There will be a lot of egg on faces with bbc radio London today implying much colder conditions from Tuesday on for the south of England

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


Regardless of what happens after next weekend, there is good agreement for a cold spell next week. It's snowing in parts of Scotland this evening - there is cold air here already, and it sinks erratically south during next week, bringing the risk of sleet and snow showers with it.


The uncertainty and prospect of a return to milder, wetter conditions is for next weekend onwards, and even that is not set in stone yet (getting there though, I admit).

doctormog
08 January 2016 18:45:28

So in other words let's cut to the chase! NO proper or even mini cold spell likely next week ,therefore continuation of current mild to coolish weather with the probability of milder weather to follow late in next week with return of S or SW winds . There will be a lot of egg on faces with bbc radio London today implying much colder conditions from Tuesday on for the south of England

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


Im confused how you think that later next week will be mild or milder than the current mild to coolish weather) based on model output. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif 


That is next Friday on the ECM and it may return to milder conditions deeper in FI but that time point is not mild. At the same time point the GFS is not mild and the other models look colder, albeit the UKMO 12z doesn't reach that far. Cutting to the chase and the next week does not look generally mild and specifically in northern parts it does look rather cold.


So egg on faces? Perhaps they will wait until after the forecast time period - they have to forecast based on what output shows. If the output changes so will their forecasts - it's not guesswork it is based on current available evidence!


 


Whether Idle
08 January 2016 18:46:41

Cold and dry - a frosty high ECM day 8



Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
SJV
08 January 2016 18:47:37

 


Milder weather on our doorstep here as the low approaches from the SW (but for those writing off the cold spell, that is next Saturday! - after a cold week).


Ally Pally Snowman
08 January 2016 18:47:58


Cold and dry - a frosty high ECM day 8



Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


-10c over the southern snowfields !


 


 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
08 January 2016 18:48:26

 



Day 8 from ECM is still cold


 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Hippydave
08 January 2016 18:49:15

Wonder if ECM will stick an Easterly in by t240 - it's pretty close to one at T192


Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
SJV
08 January 2016 18:49:36


Cold and dry - a frosty high ECM day 8



Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Lets hope after the low spins through we get a return to a frosty high in FI like the 00z to keep the drier trend 

SnowyHythe(Kent)
08 January 2016 18:50:41
Look East..I really feel this is the second bite of the cherry...
The Beast from the East
08 January 2016 18:51:24

I think we have to accept the GH is off to Canada. Perhaps we can hold a UK high for a bit or maybe if very lucky a Scandi block down the line


Straw clutching again. What a disastrous 24 hours


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
08 January 2016 18:51:26

I'd grab up to 192 with both hands to be honest


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gusty
08 January 2016 18:51:47

Its all such a shame.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



SJV
08 January 2016 18:52:08

Uncertainty at 216 as the low stays out west for longer (00z took it across southern areas and out eastwards before building back the high) keeping us in the 'frosty high' for longer. The uncertainty is still very much there after next weekend.




I'd grab up to 192 with both hands to be honest


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


As would I 

kmoorman
08 January 2016 18:52:37


I'd grab up to 192 with both hands to be honest


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


I tried that with the GFS the other day, it doesn't work.


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Ally Pally Snowman
08 January 2016 18:53:15

Day 9 still cold


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
08 January 2016 18:54:16

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016010812/ECM0-216.GIF?08-0


Cold air trying to sneak in the back entrance


What a mess. "The models are struggling"


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
08 January 2016 18:54:17


 


 


I tried that with the GFS the other day, it doesn't work.


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Whether Idle
08 January 2016 18:54:35

Japanese model at day 8:



Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
08 January 2016 18:54:41


 


 


I tried that with the GFS the other day, it doesn't work.


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


And your insinuation is that we cannot trust the GFS at 192hrs? Noted. 


The Beast from the East
08 January 2016 18:56:32

the Azores low seems to be the crucial player now. Whether it cuts off or moves north


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
08 January 2016 18:56:48


It would be cold under this HP


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


kmoorman
08 January 2016 18:56:51


 


And your insinuation is that we cannot trust the GFS at 192hrs? Noted. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


My insinuation was that irrespective of what any model or run shows,  we will get what we get, and unlike cards we can't stick or twist.  


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

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