feeling that weve turned a corner with regards to the momentum of downgrades. with the slightest whiff of an upgrade as certain critical timestamps.

summary of key points
-Uk still remains in the middle of or next to cold air. (before FI)
-LPs remain on a confusing track, perhaps pointing towards poor agreement on what the atlantic will do next week
- Strength of cold remains poor
- Overall a dry picture with the LP feeding the cold air to the UK dying a horrible death - whilst Russian aspects of the LP re-invigorates
- Better Atlantic High profile - showing more of a tendancy to ridge more towards Greenland than spain - though the Spanish HP remains stubbornly present.

This alongside a better sounding ECM ensemble - and other Meto commentry puts us in a better but not clearer picture than this morning or last night.

Still a journey to go though... buckle up.

Hoping the 120 fax would be out by now , for a further pointer

As Steve said Andy just say those 3 magic words!

-21C dew point? 

I don't think even Angela Lansbury could solve this particular conundrum somehow.

Much as GFS has long been known for sometimes being somewhat erractic, I can't ever remember seeing it in such an apparent state of flux before.

Depends if your looking at a mag or watching on freeview 

 Yes it is a cold looking ecm mean imho perhaps very cold in the north snow fields etc   maybe fun and games later on

Oi! Weren't you banished by plebiscite?

Wot will happen will not happen.

Nice T96hr fax chart though, with at least Sub-528 dam line but not for Eastern England lol!.

Massive West N Atlantic and Greenland Arctic High at t120 ufh.

Brilliant WAA up NE USA Newfoundland aka Low P.

But with a High out near to UK in the WSW Europe area I think the waiting to update fax of 120hrs, not be very nice for colder and snowy weather, what with a 536 dam line up East England Counties at 96hrs.

Still - nice try cold winter it can do this but I want to get much awaited proper winter season pleease.

Fax charts look decent

All conceivable scenarios possible on the 18z ENS 

This (5-7day range) will run on without convensus for a while yet.

some good pub members in the mix take a look from the panel only for fun of course

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=204

ECM 12z London ensemble:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

Quite solid support from Op and Mean for the cold spell to last through next week. 10% of the members go for a mild option on Thursday or Friday next week, perhaps another 10% on Sunday.

The main cluster stays cold throughout with a second cluster moving up towards slightly below normal from Monday/Tuesday 18th/19th.

Taken with Tom's earlier comment about MOGREPS and I think writing this off before its started might be unwise.

Looking less confident of cold again down here 

Could it be the weather that's in the state of flux, with many evolutions and outcomes possible from where we are today?

Indeed Peter even the weather for the week ahead appeared none the wise for the last 2 nights watching

those are seriously Impressive. Either the wider euro or American model will have serious egg on face. Ecm certainly more tightly packed (confident) on its outcome than gfs....take from that what you will

There is no simple way to reconcile the 2 models side by side.  I know there is undoubtedly some overlap in the ensembles for both, but they are both skewed in very different directions, with the GFS favouring a less cold options overall and quicker return to mild, whereas the ECM seems to support a longer cold spell, with few milder runs.

All to play for.

You can log out but you need a medical team to leave two 

TWO is like Scientology - you can never leave. 

Agreed that it's still up in the air but I would rank GFS third at the moment in handling this evolution. 

The key appears to be how the models evolve the handling of the energy trying to exit the eastern seaboard next Tuesday/Wednesday.  Unheard of I know but maybe GFS is too progressive.....?

I would say that the ensemble snapshot on ECM is 2m temperatures and if you take the same view on GEFS there's a clearer grouping keeping it cold into early into the week of 18th

Low Pressure SW W Europe away from much of UK on the 120hr fax chart, we in UK covered on 13th Jan by 528 dam line and cold UK Low- Arctic Scandy Air, Large Blocking Greenland and West North Atlantic High with cold 528 and much lower than 528 aka 510 dam line Iceland and East SE Greenland.

Milder 546 dam line with WSW Europe with Low Pressure and rain.

NE Europe 528 dam line  Vortex PV Low- Sleet and snow showers, - with it split two parts the other over UK at 120hrs give proper cold cloudy grey weather with sunny spells and rain sleet showers Central South UK with colder air and northerly winds in Western UK Ireland as well.

510 line to our North in nearby South Arctic far North and NE Atlantic wintry with snow showers.

NE USA Newfoundland PV Low with WAA move a bit across Western far NW Atlantic WSW side.

High P in far South Europe goes a bit north, with 536-546 dam line and milder air there.

The Weather next week looks coldest since mid January of 2015, but at that stage we had a touch of snow and briefly colder weather for a few days then, it was min. -3 max plus 4 on one day in London around 14-15 Jan 2015 I guestimate.