It's a funny old game.....

Normal rules -

If nothing else, this is a fascinating period of model watching!

It's all over by Friday on today's GFS, which will doubtless be well-supported by a chunk of its ensembles.

Last night's ECM control run had a large high over the North Sea by 240, with (cold) ENE'lies to the south and SW'lies for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Cold air then remains over the SE in particular all the way out to 360, with the run ending with a high over the UK.

The ECM ensembles continue to paint a cold picture, even as GEFS warms up a little with each run.

It really does seem to be a case of the GFS vs the Euros at the moment and the fun thing is nobody knows which model has things correct - if any!

EDIT: Now the 0z GEFS is available it's clear to see that there remains a cold cluster, but I feel the mechanics are changing somewhat to generate that cold cluster. Whereas yesterday and the day before the cold cluster was representative of some potent cold air being moved southwards, there's now a trend to raise pressure over the UK instead (compare the 18z and 0z ensemble pressure charts here.)

This pressure rise could just lead to stagnant air cooling, leading to frost and fog, or (as in the case of both the ECM op and control yesterday, as well as several GEFS members this morning), it could be due to a ridge from the east bringing a waft of continental air.

The ECM also manages to move smoothly from cold from the north to cold from a surface high. A new trend? Perhaps!

Well the dryness would be most welcome 

Snow for the populated SE?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Fascinating stuff. Its very difficult to comment at the moment when anything could happen after 96 hours.

UKMO - a clean cold NNW'ly looking capable of longevity beyond 144.

GFS - swift return of the atlantic

ECM - cold surface based high after a potential snow event for many on Thursday/ Friday. Interestingly GFS picked this up a couple of days ago but have since dropped the idea.

If I was to make a forecast I would suggest a northerly followed by a cold high resident over the UK by next weekend. Its purely speculative at this stage.

As some other members have alluded I think we should be looking east if the ECM verifies. Its encouraging to see the UK High and Siberian High eyeing each other up at 240. 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/240_mslp850.png?cb=56

Yes even at 240 this morning the ECM keeps us on the cold side with an arm of the jet looing like it's taking a dive into the Med. It comes about after that Azores low fails to get far enough north and pushes into Europe instead.

On the GFS ensembles, I notice the control & clusters lag a day or 2 behind the op before warming up too.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=222

Yes a lovely ecm to wake up too and as  Bertwhistle says we are not a million miles from what would be a frigid easterly setting up by the end.

What chance of that ECM high at 240 helping us to tap into all those -10 uppers hanging around over the continent?

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/240_mslp850.png?cb=56

Also, check out Helen Willett's Beeb forecast for the week ahead, late last evening, definitely emphasizing (and I quote) just a small risk of something milder coming in for the end of the week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35269094

That's my favoured outcome this morning too. Reflected on the site homepage. Also considered two other scenarios as possible by the second half of the week.

Edt: GEM doesn't go with the cold UK high pressure either.

I would expect to see a few easterlies in the ECM ensembles because we get close to one in the Op. GFS ensembles lol better this morning as well.

I wonder though, these features often find it hard going against the cold air. Could be mistaken and with no charts to back up my thoughts but often seen these systems track further south until it ends up in France.

Just about to leave for a day with the wolves, but before I go here are the 0z ECM ensembles for Reading. Still a fair amount of scatter at the end, but the majority continue to keep a cold theme going. The control run I suspect brings a high with a whiff of continental air with it, but I won't know for sure until I check out the charts... and that won't be until the evening!

Good summary Gusty.Length of cold spell by model

GFS 13-15th

GEM 13-16th

ECM 13-17th 

ECM front runner with cold high over the UK offering potential at end of run.

I think it looks like staying cold into next weekend on balance, the GFS 00z run was a bit of an outlier with it's early warm up.

I'm fascinated by the marked and now, after a few runs, almost consistent difference between the GFS op and ECM (and ad far as it goes UKMO) output.

Sod's law would suggest to not discount the GFS op runs, but the majority of evidence would say if was the less favoured option. So, it will be fascinating when the time comes to see which if any of the currently shown scenarios materialise (and if the GFS has done really well or really badly!)

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY JAN 9TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A deep and complex area of Low pressure will move slowly east into the British isles today and tomorrow with bands of showery rain circulating North and East across the UK at various times through the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles lies between 1700ft asl over Scotland to nearer 5000ft across Southern England. Snow is expected across Scottish and Northern English hills today, tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder and still rather unsettled with some rain, sleet or snow at times and frost at night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream continuing to stream East across Southern England and France over the first week before slowly returning to a more Northerly latitude later, still in a generally West to East movement.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows unsettled conditions throughout the period this morning. The Low pressure complex currently to the West of the UK will move East across the UK through the weekend and the first half of next week. Colder air will seep South to all of the UK with a mix of rain, sleet and snow at times for all, the snow chiefly over the higher ground and in the North. Then late next week and through Week 2 a more changeable but less cold period develops as winds turn back to a west or SW direction with rain at times and temperatures returning to near average or somewhat above at times.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run with the first week seeing some chilly weather with rain at times, turning to snow over higher ground. Then on this run the second half of the run will see more changeable conditions with temperatures near to average and dry weather outweighing occasional wet spells as High pressure areas close to the South at times interrupt the passage of Low pressure.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today shows Low pressure remaining in control of the UK weather next week, largely positioned over the UK with showers or longer spells of rain and colder air too will see this turning to sleet and snow at times especially on the higher ground and in the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex Low pressure and troughing slow to clear to the east of the UK early next week with rather cold and unsettled weather with rain and snow at times almost anywhere.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning brings colder conditions across the UK next week too behind complex Low pressure moving East out of the UK early in the week. The theme then is for a very slow transition to drier weather as High pressure edges across from the SW before things become less cold and changeable again over next weekend and the start to the second week as winds turn more Westerly across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps rather cold and showery weather next week with some snow showers over higher ground almost anywhere through the week. High pressure gradually builds across the UK by next weekend with frosts at night in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows unsettled and relatively cold weather next week with showers or longer spells of rain, sleet or snow as Low pressure continues to meander around over or close to the UK before slowly shifting away East later next week and next weekend as High pressure builds strongly later in the run leading to a change to fine, cold and frosty weather to end the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows a fairly slack pattern overall with the highest pressure near the UK suggesting a drier spell developing next weekend with fine weather and frost at night with daytime temperatures just a little below average at worst.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output shows a slow transitions to drier conditions later next week with less cold conditions returning later in the extended outlooks.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 96.5 pts respectively. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 88.0 pts then GFS at 87.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.7 pts over GFS's 64.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 48.7 pts to 47.6 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Evolutions between the models continue to differ somewhat in the longer term outputs this morning although there is some common ground showing up in amongst the differences. Firstly the heights over Greenland shown strongly earlier this week have all but vanished by later next week and which means to maintain cold across the UK we have to rely on the very cold conditions currently over some of Europe warding off the Atlantic. In the short term we still have several days of unsettled and often wet weather with snowfall restricted to the higher Northern elevations and flooding remains an issue I'm afraid for a while yet. Through the early days of next week the Low pressure complex across the UK delivering all this rain will edge away to the east but it looks a slow and arduous process keeping unsettled conditions for many right out towards next weekend. With winds flowing down from a more Northerly sourced direction more and more of us will see some snow in the precipitation and while Southern parts should not see to many problems from this Northern high ground and perhaps very locally in the South may see some lying snow and as the week progresses frosts at night will become more coherent for many. Then by next weekend it looks like High pressure will develop close to or over the UK with a welcome change to fine and dry conditions with sharp overnight frosts and a chance for the wet areas to dry out. Longer term models then show the most favoured option is for milder Atlantic winds to move back across the UK from the west with rain at times but I should note that while Europe remains cold any milder weather may have a job to fight through the cold air to our East and I expect more developments for this period of time to be toyed with in the models over the coming days. So summarising finally we should still be seeing some cold and unsettled conditions next week and many will see a little snow before things dry out and gradually become less cold again thereafter, all this a marked improvement on the extremely mild and wet conditions a while ago.

Next Update on Sunday January 10th 2016 at 09:00 approx

GFS control is better than the op. This will be our best hope of keeping it cold, but it will be dry. Our snow chances will have to deliver before that

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016010900/gens-0-1-240.png

To  my eye the median 2m temp on those diagrams has been getting colder and colder every time Darren has posted them. And you have to go right out to tomorrow week before even a quarter of the members are offering 7C or more.

That's true. I wasn't expecting anything until Feb, so this is a bonus even though it will probably just be cold and dry down here

Yes, you have to remember the ECM ensembles show surface temperature which can tell a very different story to the GFS ensembles showing 850mb temperature. 

The ECM would probably look unspectacular in terms of 850s but at this time of the year it will be a lot colder at the surface with 850s of 0C and a UK high than with 850s of -5c and a windy low pressure setup.