I am in Copenhagen at the moment where currently we are in a mild sector - however, temperatures are due to plummet over the next few days, with a daytime max of -10 forecast for Friday and an overnight low of -15. The beast will be here in other words, but will it head due west?

Great chart from UKMO it has to be said

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016011006/gfs-0-120.png?6

slightly better from GFS.

Longer term, a cold surface high remains the favoured option, so any snow must fall before Friday

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016011006/gfs-0-138.png?6

critical moment now

Nope, not happening again on GFS. Couldn't be more different to UKMO with ECM the compromise solution

Its FI in this set up though  Beast, so its of academic interest only as its one possibility of many, whatever happens.

Here are the 120 ECM stamps for this morning's run. Click for full-size!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016011006/gfs-0-192.png?6

Instead of Merkelslug we have a cold surface high and faux cold. An improvement on the 00z

A lot better than what it was showing for the same date earlier this week 

Opportunity for HP to ridge nE ,but looks as if LP to west will move NE and fill the gap

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=198&mode=0

Yes, I think the chances are pretty slim for a Scandi HP.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Bergen_ens.png

Bergen seems to be heading for wetter weather in the longer term and despite having no scientific base, I think the odds would favour a return to some sort of unsettled weather (from W to E) across Scandinavia as parts of mid Norway have been extremely dry of late. The weather really does, imho, balance out to some degree and hence why I would fully expect a UK HP to become established next week; a break from the floods!

The extended London ECM ens show that the op was right at the coldest end of the main pack - and there's growing agreement of a return to nearer-normal temperatures by the end. That said, the cold cluster remains in the majority out to day 12 or 13 or so.

Yes, a similar picture to yesterday's 12z with the cold cluster slowly eroding as we move through w/c 18th.

Interesting that the runs that go less cold earliest mostly also dip back down again after 2-3 days. Brief warm sector incursion followed by polar maritime?

GEFS6z update looks reasonably consistent.

Here's the 0z Arpege +102 precip type view for 06GMT Thursday. 

A max of what? I'm going to Copenhagen this coming weekend, guess I'll need to wrap up!

Sorry for OT mods.

Not sure if anyone's mentioned the GFS Parallel, but I've noticed it has tended to lean more toward the UKMO/ECM solutions in the mid/longer term in recent runs. Today's 0z gives us this early next week:

The high quickly sets up shop in Europe centred over Germany after that, with a ridge extending into the UK. Sounds not too dissimilar to the ECM control that Darren mentioned earlier although timings slightly different.

For a brief time I could access the parallels as an option on TWOs front charts page but it doesn't seem to be there anymore. Any guidance?