CMC has it turning milder towards the middle of the next week:

given the current cross model inconsistencies, i'm surprised he has gone beyond tomorrow . . . .

GFS been doing well and beating UKMO...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz5.html

We're still in the same position that we have been for quite a few runs now.

Essentially GFS still wants to spit some energy off the main LP that moves up to Arctic Canada from T+48.  An innocous shallow trough forms south of the tip of Greenland which cuts of any WAA from the next LP system and opens the door for energy to surge east.

UKMO just shows the trough dissipating which both keeps the residual upper ridge in place and allows for the next burst of WAA.

GEM shows the same trough, albeit slightly later, but again like UKMO doesn't develop it.

I guess the good news is that we're only 24-48 hours from having this resolved.

Indeed, thanks for the up to date verification stats.

Maybe, but it has already changed it's tune in recent days in one respect. Remember the LP system it showed developing over the Azores late on in the coming week in a few runs a couple or so days ago which it then showed to move over ot close to southern England? That feature didn't last long.

That looks superficially very good. If you run the sequence you can see the warm air advection is angled SW to NE, under pressure from the jetstream riding over the top.  For a sustainable block we need WAA due north or west of north (which is what happened in December 2010, and not once but twice within a few days).

But as you say that would be an entertaining last hurrah of this cold spell.

It also goes to show just how many outcomes are still possible; pretty much everything from south-westerlies through north-easterlies, easterlies and high pressure.

It's actually quite amusing this - to be honest, the difference (which is 0.001 on that chart) means sweet fanny adams, diddly squat, zilch.

You see, those stats are tracking the performance at the 500hPa level for the whole hemisphere. We, of course, are really only concerned with a very small chunk of that and alas, no stats are available for just our region (as far as I'm aware). Furthermore, what happens at the surface is of more concern on a day-to-day basis and again no stats are available for that either (again, as far as I'm aware).

Even if the 0.001 related purely to Britain, it still wouldn't actually matter as it's so small as to be statistically irrelevant.

In short: don't sweat it, is my view. Even the gap between ECM and MetO/GFS, an order of magnitude greater, still isn't really going to be noticeable to the casual observer.

Back to more serious matters, the differences between the MetO and GFS as early as 96 are stark. I'm especially interested in the way the upper heights "leak" SE'wards over Greenland on the MetO run (a consistent theme), whereas with GFS they instead ooze away into Canada (again, a consistent theme). ECM also shows the upper heights in Greenland being tapped into by the Atlantic ridge.

For what it's worth, given that sensititivity to starting data was being mentioned on Friday, you would (IMO) expect the ECM to do the best out of it - simply because it has more observations and more data going into its runs. (That's the main reason it does so well, it's also the reason it takes so long to come out!)

LOL.

by one-tenth of one percent.....

Still lagging behind ECM though.

What you say I agree with Darren, but at times like this - where fans of cold weather will be hoping then GFS is wrong versus UKMO - its worth noting these details to help guard against confidence in a particular outcome.

 That cuts both ways though and applies equally when the UKM is fractionally ahead of GFS. 

At times like this you may as well shake the tea-leaves in the bottom of the teapot - it makes about as much difference!

A 0.1% difference across the whole bloomin' hemisphere is utterly insignificant.

It's a shame there are no stats for just our little part of the world, or even Europe as a whole; especially for SLP, I've a feeling the numbers would be quite different.

Hugely disappointing forecast for English snow lovers, but decent enough for the high ground in the north. The trough just does not dig far enough south to deliver for snow starved southerners.

Incidentally, the ECMWF do provide stats for just Europe. Here's the error chart for 2M temperatures over the course of the last decade or so.

More stats here:

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/verification-high-resolution-forecast-surface-parameters?time=2015122300&parameter=2m%20temperature

I suspect that even several points difference wouldn't be noticeable.  I think these stats are more helpful over a period of many years as an indicator of the general lengthening of the period for a given level of accuracy.

Again, I agree, and that opinion is based model watching in the tiny global vicinity of the UK.

And moving on, its fair to say for the UK at the moment FI is around 96 hours...

One final post on errors by me - here's the stats for November, courtesy of the ECM. Oddly, the 12z ECM run was more accurate in FI than the 0z run!

The majority of the GEFS12z follow the op run today but a significant number go gown the UKM route.

All eyes on the 12z JMA then

GEFS 120 stamps - click for large view.

A few members there which are along the lines of MetO, but not that many!

Lower is better on that chart. 

(Note also the interesting swap between GFS and ECM by day 10 - not seen that pop up anywhere else!)

 Given the output tonight, I actually want the UKMO to be right too.... although that's wishful thinking as the UKMO T144 is so awful

GEM is also chopping and flipping all over the place too. I bet ECM takes a different route tonight too...

Take ptb 5 here, way into FI at day 7, this is the ideal cold scenario IMBY,   with a Polar Continental, this follows from an UKMOish outcome at day 5, so really once the upstream issue is resolved, it needs to be UKMO/GEMish and then it could result in a real cold blast.  If GFS has it right, which it may well have, then its back to mild dross, daffodils, crocuses and growing grass, oh, and probably more floods up north.

Ptb 5 850s GFS 12z:

Of course I meant all eyes on the ECM 12z for day 5

So Thursday is warmer than today IMBY.....................not a cat in hells chance .

As for specifics dont take thse too seriously , Ive seen Sunday forecasts for the week before and when the day arrives later in the week its very different