As reluctant as I am to suggest it, it appears GFS may have got the 6-8 day trend right and a quick return to Euroslug gunk is the likely scenario now.

Saying stuff like 'it might change', etc, is pointless because this is, when all the discussion and debate is done, only the weather 😎

In my opinion, if there's one thing the amount of variance in the model output over the past 3-4 days demonstrates, it is that at the moment FI starts at quite an early stage, rather sooner than many of us normally think of it starting at.

Recent GFS op runs and tonight's ECM12z run may in the end be proved right in suggesting a return to milder and unsettled weather after next weekend, but that is a long way ahead at the moment. FWIW, I for one wouldn't rule out further changes in the GFS output over the coming day or two. It was only few days ago it was suggesting major height rises over Greenland for the latter part of the week we're about to go into.

One thing I noted from the deep FI section of both the GFS 12z and 00z op runs today is that they both showed HP building over the UK pretty strongly as we move towards later January. The MetO said in their three month update in late November and again when they issued their last update just before New Year that they expected a more blocked pattern to be in place during February compared to the earlier part of the winter. If there is to be such a change as we get nearer February, then hopefully we might start to see some signs of this in the models as we go through the rest of this month.

No temp map for Friday was shown  , but I supect after some very cold starts those temps wont be reached especially away from those city temps shown.

reckon that'll be about right... 😋👍🏼

Looks a little  too high to me, I would have thought 6-7 c in the south we shall see...rain is right though as I think everyone on here has maintained all along, except for northern hills. And a few wintry showers on prone coasts.

So another putative cold spell turns out to be a short lived damp squib!

Twas ever thus, in these sceptered isles.  If it was easy it wouldn't be half as interesting.

For southern areas, probably yes. Although night-time temperatures away from the coast look impressively low, which should hold back the maxima more than GFS is modelling.

Those Midlands northwards have a lot to look forward to next week though  Definitely some surprises in store for some I think.

10 days ago, the 'Murr' cold spell was being hyped... Think how much 'model' water has flowed under the 'model' bridge since then... This, coupled with the huge uncertainty in the current model output, should give succour to anyone a little depressed at what's on offer from the gfs and ECM this evening into the week after next.

Any model output after +120 is rather academic at present. The confidence that we'll be back to a persistent 'euroslug' by t+10 days is as high now as the confidence we'd be in a 2010-type spell by t+10 when looking at the charts a few days ago.

A sudden, massive increase in the jet strength from ECM, JMA and GEM on their respective 12z op runs relative to 00z op runs.

Does that seem strange or is it just me? I would comment further but the model output has me the most baffled I've ever been. At this moment in time the only real theory I have is that the raging vortex in the mid-strat is finally finding a connection to the troposphere. Ironically, this may be in some way linked with the fact that a well defined Sudden Strat. Warming event has begun to materialise in the ECM ens. and GFS/GEFS at 14-16 days range.

These thoughts may change as I investigate further, in which case I will let you know what I can 

The correct version of the forecast were city temps of 5-7 , but you do wonder as that would make today a colder day , also she mentioned Wednesday a dry chilly day after an overnight frost - severe in places ,Louise Lear mentioned the " fly in the ointment" moving across the country, the graphics covered all outcomes with snow and rain.....even in the Midlands and some Central parts.

GFS temps are certainly much much lower than the ones the Beeb were showing , infact the Beeb website has sleet and 6c on Thursday for London / sleet and 4c IMBY and 4c Friday and 3c Saturday , 4c Sunday and 5C Monday and Tuesday

Bet you that chart is nowt like it in two days time.  

I don't understand why so many seem confused or let down with the output.
Even Thursday evening a euro slug was been hinted at in some of the ensembles.. I even pointed this out on Friday morning to someone who was claiming there was no sign of anything like what we had been used to in recent months any of the output...
As of Saturday the metoffice had hinted at the return of the slug in their extended forecast...

The reality of it is that the proper real cold was always at least a week out, and people especially those of many years on here should have kept level heads with a good degree skepticism.

I haven't seen the ecm 12Z ensembles yet but the 12Z op output was shown in several (but not the majority) of the ecm 00Z ensembles so not that much has changed.

If only!  Not often GEM has it right though but interesting if it did on this occasion , best hope we have is that ECM / GFS have the increased Jet wrong (as per Stormchaser's excellent post). More runs needed but looking like a chilly spell rather than cold spell away from high ground and the north.  IF the strat warming event does happen at the end of the Jan could make for an interesting mid February.

Brugge/Antwerp /Eindhoven ensembles ECM 12z: Op in mildest grouping on days 4 and 5

GEM 12zensembles London

We need to remember that the charts out in FI are not really much use at all, they serve to give an overall picture of trend, but not much use other than that.  Show me a chart 10 days out that has verified on the day, you would be hard pressed to fined one.  As I have said on a few occasions it is getting colder, how cold is anyones guess, the trend is moving in a colder direction.  There will be milder blips on the way, its an english winter.  

It is slowly moving in the right direction for those seeking cold.  Might not be exceptional this week but I expect that it will continue beyond next weekend.