Quite an incredible turnaround , just flicked through the ens up to 240 and they are all singing the same song HP over or around with variations and it isn't warm either

Let's see if we can get a classic period of upgrades +120 to +72, as proposed by a good friend of mine who unfortunately doesn't post on TWO.

In the meantime it's starting to dawn on me how much the potential drier outlook for the weekend might be needed in the south, as heavy rain moves in yet again tonight in what has been a very soggy first 10 days of the month overall with 71.8 mm to the end of yesterday and increasing further today. That's not a long way off the rate of accumulation seen a couple of years ago.

I honestly have never seen something so extreme as the 18Z in terms of a cold high over the UK. If that comes off the record would be under threat and I'm sure we will see below -20C in some places.

I doubt it will come off though, some mixing is likely to happen and moderate the insanely cold temperatures. The 18z more importantly is trying to amplify the pattern, hopefully this is a trend setter.

J F F  Some might get to see some of the white stuff falling .

Anyone know what the horizontal red sqiggle is over the Yorkshire area.

Freezing rain. Wouldn't be the first time we got it. Horrid stuff.

According to some it's all over because we have cross model agreement of the return of the Euro slug! I guess we can all go home now! Nothing to see. Not even a slug! 

Yep, I think the last two gfs runs have rather embarrassed those who were so confident of the slug returning. Just shows anything can happen in FI and next week is all to play for.

Once again the models are sending us on a Benny Hill change, queue the music....

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VUOe_hLg7Bo

Some very cold air close to the E and SE here 

After a showery week in a northerly airflow, the models this morning are showing a lot of high-pressure based scenarios. And despite the yellows and oranges most of these will not be mild setups. A spell of settled cold and crisp weather would be a welcome second prize if transport-crippling blizzards are not on offer.

Ninja post as I'm at work - suffice to say, EPS keeps the colder option as the most likely one.

Every time Darren posts those diagrams they show the ECM median 2m temp not rising again until day 10, and when it does it's always to no more than 4C.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY JAN 11TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure across the UK will ease East out into the North Sea later today with a slowly increasing NW flow across the South and West of the UK bringing showers and sunny spells late today and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles will lie around 1000m or 4000ft across the UK today and tomorrow with some snowfall in the form of showers on hills and mountains above around 2000-2500ft

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rain or wintry showers at first. Becoming colder and drier with frost and fog patches likely next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream continuing to stream East across France over the first week before becoming more variable and harder to interpret in both strength and location in the second week as the synoptic pattern becomes uncertain.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a rather cold and wintry showery week to come as winds turn NW with Low pressure meandering around over the North and East of the UK later this week at the same time as pressure gently rises from the West over the weekend. Next week then sees High pressure occasionally give way to Low pressure with some rain at times for a while in slightly less cold air before High pressure gains total control of the UK weather late in the run with frost and fog patches widely night and morning but with some dry, bright and sunny days.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run though with High pressure developing near the UK at the end of the coming week with frosty and cold conditions looking likely for all. Then after a short unsettled and possibly still rather cold period with some snow over the hills especially in the North High pressure builds again very strongly late in the period, over the UK with fine and sunny weather with frost and fog at times overnight. perhaps a little less cold in a SW flow over the NW of the UK for a time later on.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO model today shows rather cold Low pressure drifting slowly East away into Europe through the end of the week and the weekend with the associated unsettled conditions with rain and hill snow at times gradually reducing in quantity as we move into the weekend as a large and blocking High pressure area edges close to Western Ireland by Sunday ensuring dry and fine but cold and very frosty weather across all areas and just the chance of a wintry shower or two still close to the East and SE coasts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex Low pressure clearing away slowly East late in the week but leaving a legacy of weakish troughs moving South and East down across the UK in NW or North winds and rising pressure but still with instability great enough to give rise to further wintry showers at times especially near Northern facing coasts and hills.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows increasingly settled but cold weather developing after this weeks rather cold and unsettled conditions with rain and snow in places clearing away East and SE at the weekend. Next week looks fine and dry but cold with very sharp frosts at night before it becomes a little less cold across the North later as a westerly drift from off the Atlantic moves in with the coldest and frostiest weather then likely towards the South of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is broadly similar in theme to the other output with rising pressure the main theme leading to High pressure centred across the UK by the start of next week displacing the rather cold and unsettled weather with wintry showers that most places will continue to see through this week before sharp night frosts but dry sunny days develop late in the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today also shows a variation of a similar theme of rising pressure leading to a much awaited change towards fine and settled conditions next week. Before we get there there is plenty of showery and rather cold weather to come this week with showers wintry at times with a little snow in places before things dry out and some sharp night frosts develop with some compensatory bright and sunny days take hold. then later in the run into the middle of next week the High pressure area responsible slips South with milder SW winds affecting the Northern half of the UK late in the period and then probably extending slowly South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows High pressure likely to lie close to Southern Britain in 10 days time with fine and settled weather the most likely outcome across the UK through next week with any milder weather restricted to the NW of the UK at that time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have all trended together this morning towards a prospect of High pressure based rather cold weather to develop after this weeks rather cold and unsettled conditions. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 87.8 pts then GFS at 87.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.8 pts over GFS's 63.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.0 pts to 47.7 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS We finally have a coming together of the models this morning to the extent that I can predict with more confidence and hopefully more accuracy than for a good while on what weather the UK can expect to see over the next few weeks. Starting with this week we have a complex area of Low pressure still lying across the UK giving a mix of rain and showers falling as sleet and snow over the hills today and this mix will continue off and on for another 4-5 days as the whole set-up slips slowly East into Europe as we reach the weekend. With regard to snowfall the hills at least will see some though disruption is likely to be limited to higher ground and in the North with some places seeing none. However, frosts will be much more prevalent with time especially tomorrow night and then more widely from the weekend as pressure builds into the UK from the West slowly displacing the cold Northerly flow and wintry showers out of the East and SE by Sunday. By the start of next week most output shows High pressure well in control, something we haven't seen for months with light winds, sunny days and very sharp night frosts the order of the days. then as we move into the latter parts of the output this morning it's all about how quickly and in what way we slowly lose the influence of the High pressure towards a more traditional Atlantic based pattern or any other weather type. This is of course well in the future and is pointless dwelling on detail but in summary today and with some confidence I can say that cold or rather cold weather is here to stay for the next 10 days at least with increasingly sharp frosts and eventually dry weather the main ingredients to enjoy finally displacing the endless mild and wet weather we have all had to endure for what seems an eternity of late and while I can't offer a snowy picture this morning's output does at least endorse something more normal for the time of Winter we are in. Lets hope that the coming together of the models with the pattern now settled can be maintained within the output over this week.

Next Update on Tuesday January 12th 2016 at 09:00 approx