Model Output Discussion 09/01/16 04:30>>>· Page 18

theweatheroutlook

Weathermac
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 22:34:02

9C as far north as Wales on that map, but you can safely place a bet on is in a northerly those temps will certainly end up a few degrees warmer in the south if the sun shines.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme

no point looking for solar heating in early january ...temps will be falling through this week over the whole of the uk....i dont think anywhere will be at 9c come friday.

Chiltern Blizzard
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 22:34:34

#427

"-8C in the east, and -6C at the 850hpa level in the west must be exceptional if not near record breaking for a UK high. I do not remember seeing anything quite this extreme, and this must convert to damn cold temperatures at the surface - I assume below 0C everywhere."

January 2009 had a similarly cold UK high if I recall.... -10c 2m temps recorded in the south overnight without snow cover. It would be fascinating if we had snow cover in this set up!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl

Phil G
Guest

10 January 2016 22:36:45

#428

Very cold air over the UK in what appears to be a col.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21017.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2102.gif

EDIT: No is still a high.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2101.gif

Edited by user 10 January 2016 22:38:40 | Reason: Not specified

doctormog
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 22:38:26

#429

Well I guess it's not a downgrade at least. However in isolation it is little more than eye candy.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Chiltern Blizzard
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 22:39:06

#430

Northerlies don't seem to carry the same punch as they did when I was a lad. These days it seems average temps. are the best we can hope for - no good if it's snow you're after.

Originally Posted by: briggsy6

not sure how you can say that after Jan 2010 and Dec 2010.... Both had stations recording minus teens in the south. Just 4 miles from me -19c was recorded in Chesham (not sure if it's an official sit though).

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl

Gooner
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 22:40:05

#431

A bit chilly eh??

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Gooner
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 22:42:14

#432

Right out to a week Wednesday , obviously needs to verify but most would settle for this

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

squish
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 22:42:20

#433

First decent pub run for some time. As I said last night we may yet scrape a decent spell if winter weather out of this- even if it isn't the winter wonderland everyone seems to crave. Dry cold and frosty suits me fine.

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl

Chiltern Blizzard
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 22:42:23

#434

Very cold air over the UK in what appears to be a col.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21017.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2102.gif

EDIT: No is still a high.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2101.gif

Originally Posted by: Phil G

but how so? I thought we were 'nailed on' for a return on the euro slug and above average (9c) temperatures?

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl

Phil G
Guest

10 January 2016 22:42:37

#435

Not too far away from an easterly from here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.gif

Gooner
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 22:43:33

#436

Well I guess it's not a downgrade at least. However in isolation it is little more than eye candy.

Originally Posted by: doctormog

It could well be on the cold side though, but my guess would be it might have a bit of support ( hopefully )

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Russwirral
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 22:44:01

#437

Has anyone seen such a cold UK high before?

Netweather GFS Image

-8C in the east, and -6C at the 850hpa level in the west must be exceptional if not near record breaking for a UK high. I do not remember seeing anything quite this extreme, and this must convert to damn cold temperatures at the surface - I assume below 0C everywhere.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

the DAY after - bleeding el

Netweather GFS Image

EDIT:

and they were day time max's too - daytime lows below:

HJeading towards temps seeing in 2010 (though still not a 2010 event yet)

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by user 10 January 2016 22:47:11 | Reason: Not specified

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history

picturesareme
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 22:48:52

#438

no point looking for solar heating in early january ...temps will be falling through this week over the whole of the uk....i dont think anywhere will be at 9c come friday.

Originally Posted by: Weathermac

LOL 😂

Southern (Central) counties do quite well by day even in very cold northerlies. The air is normally dry meaning very little cloud which in turn means lots of sunshine... The sun alone can warm the air to 6-8C easily even in late December during very calm anticyclone can weather never mind mid January.. Then you factor in the fohn effect the landmass of the UK has on that northerly...

I would go as far to say 10C is not out of the question on favoured parts of the southcoast in ideal conditions, even if that north wind doth blow 😊

squish
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 22:53:23

#439

+96 FAX
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif?1

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl

Chiltern Blizzard
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 23:02:03

#440

+96 FAX
Originally Posted by: squish

">http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif?1

various fronts weaving across UK in comfortably sub-528 air.... Looks positive for snow falling widely. Will it be cold enough to settle and stick... Not so sure, especially at lower levels.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl

squish
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 23:04:34

#441

Here's the next one
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?1

Much more positive than the 12z GFS- although much more akin to the 18z!!

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl

Chiltern Blizzard
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 23:07:02

#442

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?1%3C/div%3E%3C/div%3E

Occlusion across eastern parts of England on the 120 fax.... Again well within the 528 line - got to be positive for snow? Not checked consistency with other operationals yet.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl

Chiltern Blizzard
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 23:08:08

#443

Here's the next one
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?1

Much more positive than the 12z GFS- although much more akin to the 18z!!

Originally Posted by: squish

thanks... Yes, a very good fax considering!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl

Russwirral
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 23:09:34

#444

Tonights GFS has to be the coldest FI ive seen in years. Temps regulalry knocking minus double digits up and down the country.

Very promising.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history

squish
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 23:10:36

#445

Out to +132 the 18z GEFS are MUCH more positive....

Here's the +132 mean

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-132.png

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl

Karl Guille
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 23:13:08

#446

On first impressions, 18z shorts should be an improvement on the 12z with most runs at T144 looking to keep 850 hPA temps below - 6.

St. Sampson
Guernsey

yorkshirelad89
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 23:13:12

#447

The 18z operational throws out a great run and an anticyclone starts to build over the cold air in Scandi.

The 18z also has a borderline snow event on Friday for Southampton and fine details like this could easily change.

A lot of uncertainty but lots to watch out for . Yes its not February 1991 style cold but after the awful December its good to see something seasonal.

Hull

squish
Advanced Member

10 January 2016 23:13:46

#448

At +144 there is not a single GEFS member showing anything remotely like what the GFS op (and many ensemble members ) have been showing the last few runs. Quite a sea change....

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl