It's a long time since I can remember there being this amount of uncertainty in the model runs in the semi-reliable timeframe. I think almost anything could come off now.

Thank you  Martin for bringing us back to normal reality ..... Love the cold spell. Telescope time well due..

I'm sure that many people in the flood-affected areas will be extremely glad of a period of settled weather. I've been saying since well before Xmas that a spell of such weather is needed rather more than a wintry spell.

Let's hope the place dries out a fair bit in the coming week or two ad the flood waters can recede, then IMO it can snow all it likes!

So the outlook looks cold if not locally very cold and frosty with some freezing fog a possibility later in the weekend and into the start of next week.

Snow risk seems pretty low but you can't have it all.

hope

Hopefully the ensembles will be good, because at 150hrs its game over.

So the GFS which, for several runs was showing the return of the euro slug, along with the mild gunk has now been dropped!!!

If that's the case that's, a massive turn around by the GFS.

It seems likely that any spell of colder weather will only be extended beyond the weekend via a high taking up residence over the UK. It's therefore even more imperative that people get their snow ration before the dry weather moves in.

Edit - starting typing this about half an hour ago, got distracted (stupid work!) and just hit send when I returned. Should have looked at the new GFS run first!

I wouldn't disagree with that although there some decent options in the ENS, very few have the Atlantic smashing back into us

Glaring at the N. Hem charts in a bid to figure out how it is that ECM's op run is again rocketing the AO and NAO into positive territory, the evolution of the Arctic profile seems to hinge on the movement of a small area of low pressure near Svalbard in just 4 days time:

See how ECM (left) has that low nearer the pole than GFS (right). This wouldn't be a big deal if it wasn't for the fact that it means ECM has detached the low from the Scandi trough, while GFS keeps it connected. By day 6, the resulting differences are stark:

This then snowballs into a huge drop of heights to our N and NW on the ECM run by day 9, while GFS keeps higher heights going until eventually giving way on day 10. This is why GFS manages to get the HP further north with a more amplified pattern holding on.

Given the above, we ought to see the models come together with respect to the Arctic profile within the next day or so, as disagreement of that magnitude surely isn't going to persist inside of +48 hours range... though it's not impossible I know.

So what about UKMO then? Well, the Svalbard LP breaks away as per ECM, but then heads for the Pacific side instead of merging with the trough trying to invade Greenland. So we still have the higher heights broken down but I expect heights wouldn't drop so far to the N and NW as happens on the ECM run.

All things considered, a chilly/cold high to start next week seems a fair bet. The longevity uncertain - but it would be a pleasant holding pattern while waiting for the next shake-up of the hemispheric pattern. If only we could get this SSW to not only verify but propagate downward particularly fast:

That's where our biggest chance of the winter will come from. It initiates at the top of the strat. at around +288 so it needs to come forward a couple of days at least before confidence can really climb with respect to the timing in particular. The intensity is also far from settled, I've seen both upgrades and downgrades from events at the current range.

GEFS6z. Not much to say about it really.

Massive scatter from day 5... and can we have that orange run please?!

That's a great run - cold and longevity.  Ideal.

looks alot different to last weeks were all runs were going for a massive jump to mild  by friday.. now looks 50/50... even then it doesnt look hot.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016011106/gens-0-1-180.png

GFS control before it goes wrong.

Extreme levels of Shannon beyond day 5 at the moment

Which is the norm for the UK at this time of year.  Living in the south I'm painfully aware of how hard it is to get the necessary setup for snow down here. 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/gfs25/2016/01/11/basis06/ukuk/weas/16011700_1106.gif

Snow accumulation offers little cheer for most high population centres across the whole UK.  Scotland does okay away from lower ground (great for the ski slopes at last) and some snow for the high ground of northern England and Wales.  But that's y'lot.