CMA has -10 uppers  into East @132:

Cold v Cold

I think many would disagree with that statement!

Yes, game over by next Monday with the ECM - return of SW winds looks nailed on for next week now.

Does not look like a very decent or prolonged cold snap unfortunately - perhaps the terrible Countryfile forecast was not that far away from the way things will turn out,

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/144_mslp850.png?cb=342

That's what I'm talking about. I think the detail there is worth enjoying.

ECM168:

We stay cold under the HP

If you read what IF said it seems there is every chance of staying cold for a while Monday sees us cold under a HP.....not sure it is game over ....just yet MM

I think it'll only be "nailed on" or close to that if and when UKMO comes on board. GFS and ECM may ultimately be right, but next Monday is a long time away just now in forecasting terms.

JMA 120 - into FI... has more similarities with UKMO perhaps - ends up at day 8 with UK HP.

Still have HP over us at 216

at least that would dry things out. Not much to get excited about in the meantime, perhaps a little wintryness in places, a few good frosts too. 

Whilst we wait for the models to start agreeing why not have a little bit of eye candy to keep us going

New trend at the end of GFS FI if you ask me, and definitely going to verify as shown

Actually whilst it's all pretty academic given the short term shenanigans there is a reasonable number of ens members showing HP over the UK, to the West or North West or to the East. The current colder spell started as a cluster of members showing HP ridging to our west, so worth a speculative eye if nout else.

Worth a box of tissues I should say.

Edit: for joyful tears, of course.

If I recall correctly, the GFS was the model first to put forward the more moderate scenario that we are now facing. No model has been perfect this last week or so, but the GFS certainly has not been less perfect than others.

So after viewing the latest output the cold then mild but cold, but maybe mild and colder later before mild wins out is back on then.

The key thing is probably the slight dilution of the cold during the middle part of this week which has been shown by the computer simulations in the last few days. This is making a marginal snow event look less likely in the south and over low ground.

Ah, I was going to say  Thanks for clarifying 

Who has been toting snow in the south?  Never been on the cards!  Hills in the north yes.

Meanwhile, anyone fancy a Brazilian?

As I said, a situation which was marginal to begin with looks even more marginal now. At the weekend the Beeb mentioned the chance of snow falling in the south and there was a little more computer model support.

While we are on the topic of cold spells which are invariably a damp squib, looking at the ECM t+240 chart here:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016011112/ECH1-240.GIF?11-0

What we have is the default situation of the PV located in its favourite nesting place to the east of Greenland with HP centred over Bern. What is it about northern hemisphere winters that so predictably locates the PV in the worst possible place for the UK to get some winter heaven? Why can't the PV take up residence over Spitzbergen instead and give us some Artic blasts? Clearly there is a meteorological explanation for the PV loving to centre itself east of Greenland, giving us a horrible SW fetch week in and week out.

Some charts look a bit misleading Brian but that looks cold enough to me for E/A and S/E even at low levels

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_66_preciptype.png?cb=950

Snow. South. Low ground. Marginal maybe. Abandoned? нет

The BBC, the Met Office and the ECM and UKMO models? Yes it may be hit and miss and marginal in places but the potential is there.