depends on what you class as 'low ground in the south'.. Imby for instance (500 ft asl isn't exactly high ground) there's a much higher chance than, say, in Bournemouth.... 

ECM and GFS both sending the Atlantic energy North this leading to some very mild charts later on.

I would think that the ECM OP will be at the mildest end of its ensembles by day 10, but the fact that both of the big two show the descent to mild zonality from day 6/7 onwards has to be a worry.

Always a worry, Shropshire; never a gloat. And as those of greater faith have shown of late, never a given.

Nailed on?? Next week is about as nailed on as jelly would be to a spinning waltzer... With no nails.

As a model watcher I perceive its only ever been a massive outside bet, shown on rogue runs.  The consensus has been to keep the cold limited and thus very marginal.  Talk of snow at a distance of 3 days in lowland southern Britain is frankly froth and bubble and doomed to inaccuracy....make that at 24 hours.

Lets get real.  I talked about "touting" of it, ie strongly worded forecasts expressing confidence in an outcome.  That simply has not happened.

I concur completely with your sentiments WI. However, it would not take much for the output to push the positive anomolies to our east a little further north in a weeks time. It will be interesting to see where the ECM Op sits in the ensemble suite..

Uncertain times continue. The form horse is for an atlantic return next week, however, the UKMO 144 hours has other ideas currently and offers a potential easterly not too far down the line.

Tomorrow morning 0z UKMO will be crucial IMO..a collapse of the block SE'wards in any way shape or form will 'probably' signal the ongoing background trend to spell the end of the current cold spell being modelled by most other credible NWP. We shall see. 

Thanks SH.

At the moment its all a bit underwhelming IMBY on the micro level but I'm finding the model wars fascinating on the macro level.  The low levels of confidence are fun.  You are right about the possibility, but again, an outside bet with very low confidence at the moment.

Just like old times...SE Massive posting in a threesome!

If you look at that Phil no mild sector on that small low(T) as it crosses already in cold air with colder air behind as it clears east coast

think its still up for grabs imho

It was ever thus for UK model watchers - we worry about the end of a cold spell (with good reason I might add) before it has even got started.

It is the tragedy of our location.

I don't.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhPZYHkoftc

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016011112/EDM1-120.GIF

There is enough in that mean chart to keep me interested post next weekend..

For the next 12 -24 hours at least..

Back to 2016...Here's the latest Bert:

Philip Avery on BBC London news - said snow "perhaps" on the very tops of hills in the northern Home Counties Thursday morning.:

low  confidence

it all depends where you are... I totally understand frustration of South Coast contingent for instance.... Even given the chart posted, the coming week doesn't show anything that's going to be 'exciting' from their perspective. 

Even if energy does go North as per ECM and GFS, that is how the current pattern change began. The polar vortex is now much more fragmented than previously and so a repeat perhaps sooner rather than later would seem likely. This would also be supported by the latest GLOSEA update. 

Of course were the UKMO 144 to verify then there are yet other options

Meanwhile ECM ens for deBilt... Op pretty much mildest on Saturday

Based on the output we have seen over the last few days I think it would be foolish to discount the possibility of snow, no matter how small the risk. For all we know that small channel low feature that has been picked up and dropped a few times by the UKMO, GFS and ECM could suddenly re-appear providing a very different picture on Thurs/ Fri ?

Here is the Met Office fax chart.

Sub 524 dam air, convective troughs, weak disturbances, light winds..January...potential.

Discounting the options post 48 hours is perhaps a little premature at this stage. 

Personally I would call the sub 520dam 500-1000hPa thicknesses shown for the south on current GFS and UKMO output would be described as cold but I guess others have other criteria. I think that the cold is there and e precipitation - just possibly not at the same time, or in the south at least. Details and confidence at this range would have to be very limited. As for snow in the south, I wouldn't rule it out even at lower levels at times (as suggested by the Met Office) but I certainly would not forecast it with any confidence or high probability yet.

Edit: I agree Steve. 

Very interesting ensembles Phil. 40% chance of going into the freezer courtesy of an easterly there. 

Yes Steve, its a possibility. 

Snow in the south on Thursday/ Friday is a possibility (IMHO a very low one), tomorrow may shed a little more clarity on an unclear picture.

Those forecasting the return of the slug may find the models tomorrow deliver some blue pellets.