Seems a fair assessment of the favoured outcome at the moment but I would say there's still a lowish a chance of colder conditions hanging on for longer.

Agree Shropshire. The cold may hold on two or three extra days and give one or two snowy surprises but longer term analysis would suggest an atlantic return by day 8/9. 

That would be the horse to back, but to suggest it will be another 4 weeks of Atlantic driven zonality, when the atmosphere is in such a chaotic state, is folly.

Not folly it's learning from experience!

Ninja post - ECM continues to signal a return to mild stuff by days 9 and 10, but before then - cold!

I agree that the cold is likely to have gone by day 9.  So, we are then looking at a colder spell that will commence around Thursday (t48/ day 2) and continue Until between day 7 GFSwise, or possibly as far as 9 if the UKMO 144 is correct. I will not be focussing on the breakdown though.  Far too much detailed fun in the shorter term for me.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY JAN 12TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure lies over the North Sea today with a strong NW flow across the UK backing Westerly and decreasing tonight as Low pressure and frontal troughs arrive from the West across the UK tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles will lie around 1000m or 4000ft today and tomorrow with some snowfall in the form of showers on hills and mountains above around 2000-2500ft

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rain or wintry showers at first. Becoming colder and drier with frost and fog patches likely next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream continuing to stream East across France over several more days before it changes to flow South across the UK by the weekend and start to next week. This lasts as well for several days before the flow gradually returns to a more normal West to East flow to the North of Scotland from the middle and end to next week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a slow progression away from the current rather cold and unsettled weather as Low pressure slowly moves off to the East by the weekend allowing a strong ridge to cross the UK from the West with cold and frosty conditions. Then next week a slow return to less cold weather following a period of rain or snow moves slowly East over the UK followed by a return to mild SW winds, strong at times and rain at times towards the North and West in particular with some drier spells as well.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a similar sequence of events through the period with just small variances of timings. The main message is that the rather cold and showery conditions currently and the fine cold weekend soon gives way to Atlantic fronts next week with rain preceded by snow in places leading us into a much more changeable second half to the period with windy and mild weather with rain at times alternating with some dry and cooler conditions behind the fronts bringing the rain as High pressure to the South and Low to the North is maintained.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO model today is again much more robust and resolute in maintaining a cold theme across the UK well into next week as it shows the High pressure cell both further North and holding back the Atlantic fronts to the West. the resultant conditions will be cold conditions continuing across all areas with some wintry showers near eastern coasts and sharp overnight frosts developing for all inland areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex Low pressure clearing away slowly East late in the week but leaving a legacy of chilly North winds and weak troughs moving South over the UK with cold weather with wintry showers especially near coasts continuing well into the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning teams with the GFS theme of events across the next 10 days as the cold Northerly airflow until the weekend gives way to High pressure, cold and frosty weather over the weekend and then a slow retreat of High pressure away to the SE allows milder SW winds to strengthen across the UK with some rain largely across the North and West while the South looks likely to stay largely dry.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is broadly similar in theme to GEM and GFS too with the same sequence of cold North winds and then calm, cold and frosty weather slowly giving way next week to milder SW winds as the High pressure topples away to the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today is unmoved in it's support to the general theme shown by the majority of output this morning although the breakdown to the eventual return of milder SW winds is a messy one and could result in a day or two of raw weather across the UK early next week with a messy mix of rain and snow around before the SW winds strengthen and push any residual cold air away by the middle and end of next week as High pressure is pulled to the SE of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows High pressure likely to lie to the South or SE of Southern Britain in 10 days time with milder conditions having spread to all areas. Pressure is unlikely to be very low so the South and East could be largely dry and benign but stronger SW winds across the North and West will more than likely lead to some rain at times here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show milder air penetrating the UK next week from the Atlantic with the exception still of UKMO.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.1 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.6 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts then GFS at 87.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.5 pts over GFS's 63.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.4 pts to 47.1 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS There is a major stand-off in the models this morning which has now been going on for several days. The battle on the face of it is a very one sided one with the majority of all the output maintaining their stance on returning milder Atlantic SW winds across the UK from early next week. In among all this we have UKMO which shows much more resilience to any such breakdown illustrated by the rest of the output and had it been any other model other than UKMO with the exception of ECM I would more easily discount it but as it is and it's persistence and consistency in showing it's pattern I am not so sure. So dealing with the here and now first we have a rather cold and breezy period of weather still between now and the weekend to get through when some windy, rather cold and showery weather persists with some snow on the hills in the North extending to all areas for a time later in the week. Then pressure is shown to build across the UK at the weekend nudging the Northerly flow away over the North Sea and leaving the UK under High pressure with very frosty weather for a time. Then the favoured options shown by the vast majority of output shows a return to milder SW winds and rain at times, chiefly across the North and West whereas the South and East look like becoming largely dry and benign in lighter SW winds. Then as hinted at earlier we have UKMO isolated in showing High pressure further North and angled such that would hold back the Atlantic and maintain cold and frosty weather for longer and while winds remain NE in the SE some wintry showers could be maintained for longer there. It's difficult to ascertain how things would evolve longer term with UKMO as we only have access up to day 6 but using their extended outlooks issued daily I would suggest that it too would gradually fall into line with the milder theme albeit much slower to establish it across the UK than the rest shows. So a good few days of rather cold weather with showers, wintry in places then an undetermined length of period of frosty weather before a return to less cold weather in SW winds is the maintained message this morning with no real sign of anything 'winter wonderlandish' likely for many over the coming few weeks across the UK I'm afraid.

Next Update Wednesday January 13th 2016 from 09:00

I agree too. I think the Atlantic will eventually awaken as a more mobile flow establishes. However, I don't agree with Shropshire's '4-week' part as that is difficult to call at this stage.

Agreed. By my own rules (cross-model agreement at +96) there is still disparity and the UKMO continues to insist on a high sticking over of just N of the UK. Whilst disagreement still exists, options remain, although a return of westerly type is as of today the prominent signal.

One thing that does seem to be emerging, even now on the ECM and GFS, is a temporary disruption at breakdown on day 7 which given the cold surface air in place could produce initial wintry ppn.

As ever . . . .  (etc)

Still the UKMO seems to be at odds with ECM and GFS at T+144. It's a long time since this has been the case for as long, if it has ever happened before that is.

Either UKMO is going to end up with much egg on it's face, or GFS and ECM will.

Extraordinary ... every single morning when Darren posts that diagram we see that the median has pushed a rise of surface temps to 4C out to day 10. Whatever the various set-ups might be which the ECM suite is offering, the fact is that the cold gets prolonged on every run, with any rise in max surface temp, even to just 4C, pushed right out to 240 hrs.

The ECM ensemble from 48 hrs ago, showing a return to a surface max of 4C as early as Monday 18th:

On the same day on today's ensemble the median looks to be no more than 1.5C.

Worth bearing in mind amid the daily gloom about the Atlantic "sadly" returning. The ECM at least has actually been prolonging its forecasted spell of cooler temps.

and following on....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.gif

With ECM and GFS together, the odds would favour a sinking High. I don't trust the UKMO 144 at the best of times but that is IMHO only.

Not the 06z run.

I am pretty certain that the UKMO 144 this evening will show the High slipping ESE. We'll find out in a few hours.

In fact, running those charts on, a very snowy breakdown the further East you are 

As always with GFS milder air wins eventually - default - but an improvement from 00z run and very possibly the block will hold for longer = potential snow fest 

Yes it appears the Atlantic MAY break through again but its onset as it is keeps getting pushed back a little, with high pressure putting up a stubborn fight.

The UKMO is once again persisting in a high to our NW and although I can understand why people think it will fall into line with the others, I think we can't say until T+72, so I will wait until Wednesday evening.

Whether the high stays to our NW is a very marginal issue and all depends on the shortwave trying to cut through the block on Friday, the slightest, incremental change for the better could well see others come in line with the UKMO. If by tomorrow we see more runs sinking the high to leave an anticyclonic outlook, then I will side with the ECM/GFS.