I'm quite pleased with the runs so far today, so much going on and IMO no return to the silly temps of December

Get the cold in and the snow potential will normally follow.

Sunday is one to watch.

Meteociel.fr - Modèle GFS pour le Royaume-Uni/Irlande, résolution 0.25 degré
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Sorry, but I have been looking out 7 days plus so taken my eye of the short term.  Has the feature on Sunday always been there, is it the Monday feature brought forward or is it a GFS re-imagining again?

I was hoping for two crisp frosty clear days this weekend but I'll take a snowy option!

[quote=Rob K;755250]The GFS has almost been more consistent with the FI range than it has with the near term!

I was just about to make the same point - so an Easterly is bang on then

Here we go. Don't look milder on second appearance and the snow row zoom up! 

Gone very quiet in here, has something drastic happened / showing that I'm missing? 

No, the majority are out buying bags of salt & snow chains...the rest are willy waving ( according to Gusty yesterday ) 

Note: Brian I love the TWO precipitation type charts, very clear...excellent!

Concern about the 6z although I would point out it's the 6z so pretty gash as ever and the higher uppers are associated with high pressure and take no account of surface cold pooling

Meh to the GFS in general, I say. The last couple of days have shown the GEFS ensembles have flip-flopped around like a dying fish. They flipped from cold to mild a couple of days ago, then they flipped back cold again late yesterday. They've now flipped milder again, although we're still talking next Wednesday before milder air gets in on even half of them.

Given the miserable way the GFS has performed of late resolving the progression of Atlantic systems, I really wouldn't pay too much attention to GEFS at the moment.

EPS show a warm-up from half its members next Friday... but I'm sure we all know that the 216 charts now will look nothing like that come the day!

And that is the key point Dave

Shows the uncertainty of a return to mild.

Ian Fergusson Twitter.

critically, 40% of EC-ENS don't budge... & either maintain or even retrogress cold block

Fairly good update from the Met office 30 dayer today. States a real struggle to move milder air in and then suggests the North and West only likely to be milder with colder air hanging on across the South and East. can't post link I'm afraid as at time of posting it has only updated on the Met office App.

P.S Sorry Stone Cold hadn't realised you posted about this on the previous page

Ah, HP and surface cold pooling. Cue lots of discussion about "faux" cold 

I'll get my coat and go back to lurking now. Great discussion at the moment. Thanks to all the contributors. 

I agree with that 100%.  GFS has been truly awful over the last week.  It's almost as if the code demands that it drives the jet across and requires 'blunt object on the head' signals before the modelling reflects them.

If GFS ran twice per day, only ran out to T+240 and didnt' come with charts for loads of different parameters it wouldn't get the excessive attention that it receives.  Trouble is, more data is just more rubbish if the fundamentals are wrong quite early in the run.

I know the models only roll through applying the science to the opening data but clearly some seem better at handling 'typical' scenarios' than 'atypical' ones.  Currently we are very much in an atypical scenario and GFS has been struggling; the evidence is clear from the chaos of the last week of output. 

Remember that GFS was not long ago forecasting a return of westerlies by Friday.  It could be a week out..... or more.

How do you get text forecasts on the App??

ECM 00z ensemble for London:

Once again it shows how GFS is completely out of step with ECM on the evolution past Day 8.

Interesting that there is a strengthening of the cold cluster at the end of the period and a reasonable signal for cold to last into next weekend (i.e. days 11-12)

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

Gandalf any explanation why the ecm has much colder temps than what the Beeb/Meto have for this period?

could it be that the ECM are adjusted for altitude?  (just a guess)

Its just a bit odd isn't it as today the max in London is 8c and that graph shows about 4.5c . Which is about what it is where I am but I'm about 40 miles north of London. 

ECM not taking into account UHI?   Which human forecasts would allow for?

I don't have knowledge of ECM dataset variables but are those 2m temperatures?

There's a link at the top of the Map tab. Zoom in to get regional text forecasts.