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12z GEFS says cold for a week. Interestingly only 6 of the members on yesterday's run were 5C or below on the 21st...
I thought they said it will turn more unsettled by midweek next week?http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.gif
Well with 1040mb right over the SE - that's hardly going to shift and move away in a hurry#!!
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83
As I recall, a number of GFS op runs were suggesting a couple or so days ago that the cold spell would be all but over by early next week, and ECM for a while seemed to think the same.
Maybe of the three "big" models, the UKMO has had the best handle of the upstream pattern from the word go.
Pert 13 please
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016011312/gens-13-1-144.png
Hopefully the situation will keep evolving and the high ends up like this.
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
That's got almost everything you want. High Pressure block to the NW, cold air flowing in from the NE, AND a low skirting in from the West. Perfick
Yes that's the worry for snow fans especially in the South. The minute it's cold enough there's no PPN and then as soon as it's not cold enough - maybe a week later - it's raining - if the GFS is correct with it's breakdown scenario, which does look most likely with the upstream pattern.
Originally Posted by: Shropshire
Thinking the GFS will be correct is playing a dangerous game. It's been embarrassingly bad this week
As I type this, there is a blizzard going on outside my window. Winter has certainly arrived here now!
Originally Posted by: David M Porter
Yawn.................
Originally Posted by: llamedos
GEFS12 look colder.
Remarkable. The entire GFS ensemble suite is still flapping around like a bird in distress...
6z on top, 12z on bottom, 2m temps for London.
Originally Posted by: Retron
That is pretty astonishing given it's just a 6 hour difference
Can we swap it and have NOGAPS back?
Under Gusty's terms from yesterday can I ask if this is an example of " Willy Waving "
......Enjoy
I'm afraid your stuck record technique is not fooling anyone. Even the realists in here have now conceded GFS has totally misjudged the upstream pattern and is slowly being dragged back towards ECM and ukmo. Are you ready to do the same?
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
No, the upstream pattern hasn't changed - a surge in the jet across the US and an AO emerging from a negative phase. The jet will roll over the top next week, it's just a case of whether we can hold HP at mid-latitude rather than a descent into the slug.
There's a link at the top of the Map tab. Zoom in to get regional text forecasts.
Originally Posted by: Twister
thank you sir:)
GEM12z 147
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze
GFS is not entering my longer term model thoughts at all, waste of time at the moment. Of far more relevance are models that have the capacity to handle these unusual situations - like the UKMO (and ECM to some extent). FI is well within the limits of 144 so using Arpege is also helpful, and in a much shorter time frame -( under 48 hours) I trust the GFS also, so useful for short term forecasting.
I often agree with your analysis but on this occasion I'm not certain. I'm inclined to go for 55:45 in favour of your solution and it is inline with the MetO. Nonetheless, I'd not be surprised to see a colder and snowier pattern developing.
WZ UKMO:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
Originally Posted by: Rob K
Great charts
The ECM is looking rather more progressive than the 00Z. Quite similar to UKMO.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016011312/ECM1-120.GIF?13-0
I'm liking the angle of attack there though - lots of potential
shame there isn't another chart midway between the 2:
Less ken on the ECM144:
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/144_mslp500.png
Originally Posted by: kmoorman
Not at 144. Looks like a quick sinker this time to bring us back down with a bump after the GFS and UKM optimism! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016011312/ECM1-144.GIF?13-0
There's always one model has to spoil the fun!
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/144_mslp850.png?cb=579
Still cold and dry; lest we forget what it could be like.
I do wonder, seriously, how long must it look to stay cold for before we stop worrying that it's going to be over too soon even before it's started.
My gran used to be depressed when we visited her because we'd be going in 6 hours.
