Just catching up, excellent runs today , even including ECM  up to 120 , many snow options cropping up

more Barbie

Whisper it - we may just get a day with below average temps tomorrow (5c forecast according to BBC ). By the standards of this winter that's like winning a rollover on the Euromillions! How I love El Nino and GW - er not.

time to celebrate!

 I'll start to feel festive soon...  how many sleeps to Christmas?

If you simply woke up and saw a proper winter scene with white hedges and possibly fog, you'd never know you were experiencing a disappointing chart, with the Atlantic rolling over the top.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Good post Steve

 No, I'm trying to stay completely objective! In the language of some, ECM12z is a 'downgrade' but the big picture is promising if you like cold weather. The snow potential doesn't appear great at the moment and for that I think we need to see either a positive breakdown from the southwest or for high pressure to migrate northwards.

Even at 216 the high is hanging on. I wasn't expecting that.

the change from 120 to 144 looks sus. Hopefully some of the ens will send more energy under.

Probably 50/50 how this is going to play out

Quite.

It's hanging on at 240 and looks very close to the MetO forecast to me.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/240_mslp500.png

Sadly the most likely outcome, but still time for changes. the critical moment is +120

Actually intensifies from 1040 mb to 1045 mb.

It's now looking like a particularly cold and frosty week next week. Sunshine and light winds would be most welcome. Any snowfall will be a real bonus. 

I realise the following graphic is based on the GFS op run rather than the ECM but it really does highlight the current and upcoming change in temperatures compared with what we have been used to http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html 

How long that lasts and whether there is much in the way of snow is another matter.

On that subject the models and nowcast are suggesting several inches of the stuff across parts of Scotland overnight -  sadly it's either about 100 miles too far south or over 200 too far north for here! 

I almost agree.  Id say that the UK high edging SE is quite a likely outcome.

However, balanced against that is the undeniable fact that the UKMO has been a tower of strength in actually getting things right, so  seeing as UKMO has led the way, perhaps that tips things 55/45 its way.  I agree with warren b, I expect a lot of scatter post 120 with distinct clusterings.

Will be very welcome. Although I think anyone in the east of the UK will be looking for little features feeding in snow showers, I'd much rather have days of dry cold than risk an Atlantic incursion. I had had enough of the Atlantic's wet dross, and if someone offered me a snowy breakdown vs prolonged dry frosty cold, I'd take the latter every time. We'll get some snow at some point as long as we stay chilly. 

Frost fair sounds lovely. 

Fair play Steve, you've called this pretty much spot on so far especially that SEward transfer of energy out of Greenland - i thought initially GFS was likely to be correct as it modelled the Greenland area at higher resolution but clearly (in this case) that's not been correct

Be fascinating to know what MOGREPS shows ....

p.s. pouring with rain here Doc despite temps of 1.5c , white in Penicuik apparently though

Tell you something though, having just had a skeg through ECM and the other models and it is unusual - and strangely pleasant - to see an almost unanimous agreement across the board even at T-240 hours for high pressure to dominate the UK = dry and cool conditions. It'll probably look different this time tomorrow, though.
  This time two years ago, we were staring down the barrel with storm system after storm system threatening to smash into the UK.

I note with interest that the GFS now brings in -10c 850Hpa air into the far SE on Monday. With 925Hpa's of -6c there is a fair chance of an ice day around these parts given the true continental nature of the airmass. 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=EGMD

Yes Steve.  I'm looking forward to cold and frosty period.  We need severe frosts to kill the bugs and test the pipes!

Although the Arpege hi res suggests Justin's house could be the place you want to play on Sunday morning with a potential  streamer setting up:

Edit 2 - here's the DWD t72 - not without wintry potential for SE coasts: