I always feel like the 'flips' at mid-range are cold-to-mild rather than our more favoured alternative!

Bloody GFS 

In UKMO we trust 

Oh yes, the guaranteed easterly outbreak and blizzard that I warned all my family and friends about - they still don't believe me when cold weather is on the way so I just keep quiet and send them the daily GFS saying that this is the best and most accurate forecast you will ever get!

Whilst the UKMO looks a much better run it is so different from the 0z im having trouble believing it wont be different again by morning

Clearly Alex is causing a headache in the models

Based on some comments I read earlier in this thread, I reckon this tropical storm/ hurricane (delete as appropriate!) is causing the models a major migrane just now. Maybe this has been the sole issue behind much of the uncertainty we've seen in recent days, within what many of us usually regard as the semi-reliable timeframe.

Of greater relevance than  some other models is the well respected Arpege, the French counterpart to UKMO:

It too benefits from not going out too far.  Here it is at 114:

Another useful short term Euro model, DWD.  here  is the 6z at t78 : with undercutting.

That chart looks almost a carbon copy of the UKMO 12z at T+144, IMO.

Another fun little animation - no prizes for guessing that it shows yesterday's 12z GEFS and today's offering!

This goes down as one of the biggest ensemble flips of the Web era. The daft thing is I wouldn't rule out another flip tomorrow!

The mightily respected CMA sides with the GFS...Here is what it thinks will happen at 144hrs

Re UKMO, didn't I read on here that the UKMO charts are not SLP ones. If so maybe that's why it looks the way it does

Brilliant comparison. FWIW I have saved the 12Z UKMO and GFS charts and will see what is nearer the mark in 4, 5 and 6 days!

Alex has certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons with the GEFS as hopeless as ever. For me I see little sign off the Atlantic steaming in and heights look likely to remain robust close by for the foreseeable. Lets hope they push Northwards and introduce some colder uppers over time, looking at the GLOSEA 5 output this is what the METO envisage for the rest of winter.

ECM12z at 96 hours:

I was looking at the charts on Meteociel and the high over Europe at +120 looked like it had moved East on the +144 chart. Looking on Wetter site now, I can see that's not the case!! Apologies!!

Well the flip is complete and IMO this will be the solution, both the GFS and ECM will not be wrong at day 4.

ECM sides with the Chinese model.

I would tend to save this  particular nail for later this week.

If the ECM happens, then it's easy to call it - the Low is through the gap with attendant height rises further South.

If there is one thing this setup is not, it is an easy call.

Trust a rogue January hurricane to ruin our weather pattern

Yes this battle is lost and major embarrassment for the METO - as I said earlier I don't think the Euro heights will last, and we can move onto the next chase.

Why would that be? If MOGREPS continues to back up the op, I wouldn't expect any changes - remember, they use DECIDER and MOGREPS heavily, they don't rely solely on the ECM and especially not the op run.

PS - good to see posts from people who have made a 100-hour time machine visit to the future. 

It could well be that MetO is wrong on this one. It could also be the case that the other runs are actually wrong, however unlikely that may seem.

Personally I wouldn't like to say either side has it right, simply because of the sheer uncertainty of the situation - that hurricane is really causing a mess of things!