Model Output Discussion 12/1/16 17:25 >>>· Page 19

Maunder Minimum
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:06:12

#451

Let's see what the 12zs throw up, I think we will see a really progressive GFS.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire

Yes bin it at t+96 - it is clearly wrong.

New world order coming.

stophe
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:07:05

#452

Well to say you couldn't have two more different charts at just 96 as the Meto and the GFS is amazing.
Someone is very very wrong.

Originally Posted by: warrenb

GFS must be missing some data

Maunder Minimum
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:07:56

#453

There is a significant buzz on the forums this afternoon discussing the unprecedented 'tropical' storm Alex and in particular its effect on the macroscale patterns in the Atlantic region.
In short all bets are off now - I'm sure James will update us in due course.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins

Clearly, it is not factored into the GFS 12z run which is a complete joke.

New world order coming.

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:09:28

#454

Clearly, it is not factored into the GFS 12z run which is a complete joke.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum

It has been useless for days and unfortunately some people have been slow to appreciate this.

here is the UKMO 96:

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

warrenb
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:09:58

#455

Actually it is the way it deals with the hurricane that causes the problem, it phases it with the low coming out of the US and gives the jet stream a kick start.

Tonbridge 45m

Islander
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:10:12

#456

GFS12z is quite markedly different from its 6z that we surely have to bin it!? It's got to be missing something from its data....?

Guernsey

kmoorman
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:11:01

#457

Clearly, it is not factored into the GFS 12z run which is a complete joke.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum

I know there are lots of tongue in cheek comments on here regarding the accuracy of the GFS run, but I can't see anything to say that the GFS is wrong... just different.

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

Shropshire
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:12:03

#458

Incredible differences between the GFS and UKMO at T96, my fancy for a progressive GFS was correct and then some !

Now where will the UKMO go with the Atlantic trough ?

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Brian Gaze
Administration

14 January 2016 16:12:09

#459

GFS12z is quite markedly different from its 6z that we surely have to bin it!? It's got to be missing something from its data....?

Originally Posted by: Islander

No. It was initiated on time and no problems were reported. When I saw it that was the first thing I wanted to check.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Islander
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:14:05

#460

No. It was initiated on time and no problems were reported. When I saw it that was the first thing I wanted to check.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

Well in that case 1 of these 2 models is going to be very wrong!!

Guernsey

soperman
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:14:43

#461

There is a significant buzz on the forums this afternoon discussing the unprecedented 'tropical' storm Alex and in particular its effect on the macroscale patterns in the Atlantic region.
In short all bets are off now - I'm sure James will update us in due course.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins

We now know how GFS is handling Alex - a forcing of more powerful SW winds further east to crush the Scandi block

kmoorman
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:16:01

#462

Well in that case 1 of these 2 models is going to be very wrong!!

Originally Posted by: Islander

Well, GFS has had first go with the new starting position / data set for the 12Z run. Let's see what the UKMO / ECM make of it.

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

Brian Gaze
Administration

14 January 2016 16:16:24

#463

CMC running, 66 hours:

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Weathermac
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:16:43

#464

Incredible differences between the GFS and UKMO at T96, my fancy for a progressive GFS was correct and then some !

Now where will the UKMO go with the Atlantic trough ?

Originally Posted by: Shropshire

You mean your guess Ian.

Too progressive even by GFS standards me thinks.

Russwirral
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:18:09

#465

we are getting to a point now where one of the models is going to have severe eggface-itis on Monday. We're going to see an incredible last minute flip from somewhere.

Even though the GFS has been dire recently, I cant help but think it will win the day, as a milder forecast will always win in the UK - eventuallly.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history

Whiteout
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:18:17

#466

There is a significant buzz on the forums this afternoon discussing the unprecedented 'tropical' storm Alex and in particular its effect on the macroscale patterns in the Atlantic region.
In short all bets are off now - I'm sure James will update us in due course.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins

You can say that again Neil, UKMO holding firm and ties in with latest MET forecast, GFS is having a terrible time at the moment.

Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:18:54

#467

UKMO 120 - that trough is getting shredded. No way it will shift the dense cold air over the UK at this moment:

A far more likely outcome IMHO than the FFS rubbish.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

Downpour
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:19:21

#468

You mean your guess Ian.

Too progressive even by GFS standards me thinks.

Originally Posted by: Weathermac

The GFS's ludicrous wet Atlantic chart for Sunday should put the final nail in the coffin for the American model during winter blocking setups. It is simply not plausible and is preparing for yet another embarrassing retreat as we approach the weekend. That it still has its loyalists after its recent performance is laughable.

Chingford
London E4
147ft

Downpour
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:21:44

#469

we are getting to a point now where one of the models is going to have severe eggface-itis on Monday. We're going to see an incredible last minute flip from somewhere.

Even though the GFS has been dire recently, I cant help but think it will win the day, as a milder forecast will always win in the UK - eventuallly.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral

How will it "win the day" if it forecasts a mild incursion on Sunday and the mild incursion actually arrives five days' later?

I might as well predict that summer will occur this year and claim victory as soon as we get a sunny warm day anywhere between June and September.

Chingford
London E4
147ft

Whiteout
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:22:08

#470

The GFS's ludicrous wet Atlantic chart for Sunday should put the final nail in the coffin for the American model during winter blocking setups. It is simply not plausible and is preparing for yet another embarrassing retreat as we approach the weekend. That it still has its loyalists after its recent performance is laughable.

Originally Posted by: Downpour

I have just checked that on the precip charts, rain by Sunday evening, really?? Deary me.....

Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

kmoorman
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:23:00

#471

we are getting to a point now where one of the models is going to have severe eggface-itis on Monday. We're going to see an incredible last minute flip from somewhere.

Even though the GFS has been dire recently, I cant help but think it will win the day, as a milder forecast will always win in the UK - eventuallly.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral

I've not looked in detail at this run yet, but would the current Op run sit within the range of options shown on the 6Z ensemble?

This the pressure plot for mid Sussex (one I had to hand). Lots of outcomes are possible for Monday in there. would the 12Z Op match one of these, or is it very different?

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

14 January 2016 16:24:56

#472

we are getting to a point now where one of the models is going to have severe eggface-itis on Monday. We're going to see an incredible last minute flip from somewhere.

Even though the GFS has been dire recently, I cant help but think it will win the day, as a milder forecast will always win in the UK - eventuallly.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral

What do you mean, getting to the point? That point has been reached earlier this week. I said earlier that the GFS has been useless. Sorry, I was wrong, it has been worse than useless as it has patently got the pattern WRONG time and time again.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.