Ian you are talking about todays runs only ,  for days they have been running with the same story, GFS hasn't had a bloody clue. If read my post I did say UKMO are allowed to reflect any changes they are picking up on, maybe today there has been a realisation ??? how knows.

The fact is over the last week UKMO has been more trustworthy .

GFS and its members have had a guess at every option going.

At 120 ( which is on the edge of 120 ) the LP to the NW is modelled differently by GFS compared with UKMO and ECM.

All I'll say here is that if there is a breakdown, let's hope it isn't a return to November's & December's pattern with week after week of SWlys and endless rain. There is a chance though, according to the FI bit of some recent GFS runs, that HP might be back with us before too long. Let's hope so.

As far as I can see the ECM isn't sending any energy south at all? It goes slightly north of east, with the trough extending into southern Norway. By 192 it's as flat as you can get, with 1035mb due south of the UK and 965mb due north. Obviously that is beyond the realms of reliability but even at T96 the energy is going ENE.

Lets see what the 96 and 120 fax charts show. That will answer a few questions

No personal comments etc! Please raise with the admins / mods directly. 

Or willy waving  ©Gusty

When are faxes out?

I think those ones come out after 10pm. 

You are mistaken.  The only model that is pitifully poor at the moment is the GFS with the ECM a close second.  UKMO and Arpege are handling things better. 

Approx 21:30 - 23:00

Thank god

I thought I was going mad and imagining it

I'm not sure it aids the breakdown of the cold spell. It seems that it is just making it even harder for the models to predict what might happen next. We had the idea of an early breakdown next week before it started to delay and become a non-existent affair, just when the models were beginning to show some consistency (GFS slowly back tracking, ECM broadly agreeing with UKMO, etc etc).

Now we have the hurricane thrown into the mix and suddenly GFS goes all progressive on us again and re-introduces the idea of a quick return to an Atlantic regime, with the lesser models keen to follow suit. We then have the likes of GEM and ECM with a middle-ground solution and the bullish UKMO sticking to its guns.

It's an unusual scenario, and I think we should accept the frustration that comes with it and concede that we cannot, however much we want to, reliably call the dominant pattern for next week just yet 

Yes, a Network Rail-worthy excuse. Wrong sort of tropical storm, mate... your cold spell's been diverted to the Adriatic.

FWIW the iOS weather app has trended even milder now, with London temps of 7 on Tuesday rising to 11 on Friday.

Indian Model says this for 144:

Whereas the well respected JMA says this for 120 (12z):  (siding with UKMO)

I think that's the first Indian model I've seen unless it goes by a pseudo- (it was ages before I realised what the JMA was). Has this bureau got a good track record for Europe?

It's an interesting period for model watching alright

Given the uncertainty I'd go with FI being 72/96 hours tops at the moment and see what another day of runs brings - although you wouldn't bet against more disagreement

I'm leaning towards a Monday/Tuesday drift back to average but there's at least still a reasonable chance of colder weather hanging on ala UKMO

Back to tonight , I'm hoping for some light snow later on tonight

No, but I think they've been currying favour with someone in Staffordshire.

Has it, or is it only more 'trustworthy' because it continues to show the coldest scenario?

Amazing to read all the comments about the GFS being 'crap' lately. I haven't found that at all. However, my guess is if the GFS continued to show colder weather with snow risks etc, it would be very much in favour.

On topic. ECM is dire tonight if it is serious wintry weather you are looking for. Perhaps it is coming around to the GFS idea of things? all up in the air atm.