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An opportune moment for a new one - so here's a nice clean sheet.........
On topic at all times please and refrain from personal niggles.
950hpa temperature for Saturday night.
I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a secondary feature forming, which could be very interesting. On the face of it that temperature gradient is very impressive, but the boundary is moving into an anticyclone causing frontalosis limiting any upward motion. If a secondary feature does form though then this could be a very major snow event. The air to the east is really really cold, cold enough for snow on a kata feature which is very unusual for the UK.
Interestingly the polar vortex is currently as close to the UK as it was during 2010 sitting just to the north of Greenland with a possible secondary vortex over eastern siberia.
Significantly more trough disruption on the 12z.
Slightly better angle of approach for the front on Monday.
Alex is causing warm air to atrophy cyclones from the north.
12Z is starting to look like my fax chart!
Excitement at TWO Towers on Monday should this be correct!
You look on the very Eastward extent of it there Brian !
Yes - accepting GFS is as useful as a cat flap in an elephant house just now, if the 12z solution is close then many areas could see quite a bit of snow on Monday and Tuesday.
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
Quite a bit of snow on Monday, on the GFS 12z, but then a thaw sets in - across central southern England at least.
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze
I'll bank that one.
Looks like GFS is going the way of Meto with building the high over scandi then placing it over us.
Just a Meto goes the other way.
Meto better in the long run though I think.
Is the Alex conundrum resolving in our favour?
Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum
Personally I think, yes, it is introducing warm northerly winds into the Baffin bay which is deadly to developing cyclones.
The ARPEGE has even more disruption than the GFS
is this a possibilty
is this a possibilty Originally Posted by: molly40
Possible or not, it is much more desirable than the GFS for the same period.
Originally Posted by: molly40
Absolutely. Just about anything is a possibility. Best model watching spell ever!
Wasn't Arpege the model that nailed the 1987 "hurricane"?
Perhaps nudge 20 miles or so east?
Originally Posted by: llamedos
Just what I was thinking - we are colder but drier from this set up but it's not settled yet.
Clearly, as it's been modelled, then it is.
What's interesting is the view that Alex is going to disrupt cyclone development, which may completely alter the pressure patterns to our north in the medium term, so this could be possible.