On the BBC lunchtime forecast there was a comment that suggested a lack of certainty about the breakdown at the end of the week.

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I'd shorten it to one word for the whole year  "Autumn"

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I noticed that as well, Peter. Louise Lear said that it "could" turn milder and more unsettled at the weekend, suggesting that they don't view it as a nailed-on certainty at the moment.

Given the somewhat chaotic of recent model output, I don't think that further surprises can be ruled out. A number of runs early last week had milder & more unsettled weather returning across many areas early this week. Hmm....

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But is it ??

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It'll be Spring before you know it. Mmmm.

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Thomas Schdnrlekrjjbeqlvjbeker  highlighted much uncertainty and showed cold air from the East edging back ( Next week)

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Yes, I believe Thomaz may have gone a little rogue with this forecast (or possible hopecast).

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Won't notice any cold IMBY from any easterly influence 9/10 they produce diddly squat here. Looking at the model output this morning as well as snippets from the ECM32 ( which I don't rate anyway ) then it's a mild unsettled period of weather the further W/NW you are.

I think maybe the comment about cold air flooding west has been overstated here.  I heard 'maybe' and 'a possibility' - clearly uncertain. I thought the emphasis on the liely behaviour of the jetstream was useful and indicative of how the cold might possibly return.  The overnight output suggests it's not quite going to happen but it's not quite a write-off just yet.

As for 'rogue', I doubt very much that these forecasts represent one person's view; there'll be a consensus based on what the deterministic and ensemble output from their models is indicating.

 

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It is also a ''daily'' week ahead forecast so I suppose they like to give all the options over a 2/3/ day timespan and last night they just chose to show the cold option.

Models firmly against this outcome this morning.

Indeed, the MetO presenters are far to professional to let personal weather preferences cloud their judgement, mind you maybe having a Steve Murr type person cometh the winter months would certainly sex up forecasting.😁

No, we have 12z UKMO-GM by 1600hrs and 18z E4 by 2100hrs. They, plus all 12z EC-ENS and 12z MOGREPS, are seen before the bulletins at 2200hrs and all discussed in conference beforehand. As mentioned, Tom wasn't suggesting any modelled easterly.

 

From IF

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Yes, apparently ECM 32 day and Glosea now having none of it and have flipped (in the case of Glosea) to the milder option.

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RE dry mild in south whilst wet & windy with chance of hill snow in North...

November/ December saw similar conditions with hill snow on the back edge of systems.. Now factoring in its late January and things have cooled a little it's fair to assume hill snow might be more frequent then previous.

Mind you the Met Office website appears to have titled today's video forecast as 19th December, so either it is extremely long range for 11 months time or they've popped back a month to give a 100% accurate forecast (or should that be pastcast)

 

 

Thomas Schug'iug'igu'naker  Hard frost again tonight , tomorrow below freezing where fog sits

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Let's see if the BBC N 24 weather for the week ahead will show colder air returning next week to the south and east like last night!?

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Another excellent forecast well explained....worth noting too that Thomasz said that there was a risk that the cold air might come back towards the end of next week.... A risk but the most likely option was that the mild air would win out...clearly this are still uncertain albeit the mild weather. Is much more likely to remain next week than was thought 24 hours previous....

Except that last night's forecast showed no such thing.

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It sort of did, it ended with the SE corner in blue shadings and blue arrows from the East

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Looking at that I think there is little chance of the cold coming back that early

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Not in the sense of a forecast though, Marcus, it was just mentioned as a slight possibility, wasn't it.

No wonder they have to be so careful with what they say and how they present information.

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Yes I know, but I understand why Tally posted what he did

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Monday 25 Jan 2016 to Wednesday 3 Feb 2016:

Monday and Tuesday should be mainly cloudy and windy with outbreaks of rain in the north of the country. Drier conditions are likely across southern parts, but even here rain is possible at times, as rain pushes in from the Atlantic. This pattern is expected to persist through the rest of the week and into next weekend, with gales occasionally in the far northwest, along with some snow on hills. As we move into February, a northwest to southeast split may develop, with unsettled weather in the northwest and drier, brighter conditions in the southeast. Temperatures should be around average for much of the country, but slightly below in the south at first with a risk of overnight frosts.

UK Outlook for Thursday 4 Feb 2016 to Thursday 18 Feb 2016:

The first weekend of February is expected to herald a move to slightly colder conditions as a north to south split forms across the country. Northern areas are forecast to remain wet and windy, with further gales and hill snow possible in the northwest. Southern parts should stay drier, with lighter winds. Temperatures through most of the period are likely to remain close to or slightly above average, but may fall just below normal by the middle of next month.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 26 Jan 2016 to Thursday 4 Feb 2016:

Tuesday should see sun and blustery showers, but with outbreaks of rain in the north of the country. Drier conditions are likely across southern parts, but even here showers are possible. This pattern is expected to persist through the rest of the week and into next weekend, with severe gales possible in the far northwest, along with some snow on northern hills. As we move into February, a northwest to southeast split may develop, with unsettled weather in the northwest and the best of any drier, brighter conditions in the southeast. Temperatures should be around average for much of the country, but slightly below in the more settled spells in the south with a risk of overnight frosts.

UK Outlook for Friday 5 Feb 2016 to Friday 19 Feb 2016:

The first weekend of February is likely to herald a change to slightly colder conditions as a north to south divide in the weather forms across the country. Northern areas are expected to remain unsettled, with further gales and hill snow possible in the northwest. Southern parts should stay drier, with lighter winds. Temperatures are likely to remain close to or slightly above average through much of the period, but may fall just below normal by the middle of February.

Updated at: 0307 on Thu 21 Jan 2016