Those temp forecast maps show how frustratingly close we are to some real bone chillingly cold conditions just to our East. The joys of living in a continental climate rather than a tiny island jutting out into the atlantic.

Isnt it just, you should try living on an even tinier Island that has to rely on n/e, east or s/e winds for any snow! Still, this is certainly the most interesting period of model watching I can remember on Two.😀

Surely you're due a holiday in Lanzarote soon? You never ever stop moaning do you? If you read the latest Met Office update, you couldn't be more wrong on their thoughts. Enjoy the rest of your day.

I prefer the joys of living on this island jutting out in the Atlantic thanks! Within 600 miles you can find most all weather types most of the time 

Spot on. 

Where are the dominant westerlies as predicted only a short time ago.

In the last few weeks the met office forecasts have in general been dire. Also I have never seen so many BBC forecasts use the word uncertain future. If they can't predict whats going to happen two days ahead then that says it all.

Bazzer

The disrupted vortex at the 30 hpa level is still there, with even a hint of stratospheric warming - AND a little closer in the 14 days range. 



To be honest, I have no idea where I'm going on this, just something different to look at and wondering what kind of effect it'll have at surface level as we go onto February. 

Sure but how thick was the snow? what was the coldest temperature? Remember the coldest spell since 2013" was meant to be on the cards!?

problem is if there is a stratospheric warming there is always a time lag between this and seeing blocking or cold weather - in any case that looks a slight warming - it can take 2 weeks for us to see the effect of this - and if we can't get severely cold weather than I don't think it's worth bothering with - as the current spell has been a massive disappointment with cold rain and sleet being the order of the day

Whereas we had light snow

And it was and still is here, 0.4c on Friday , yesterday was only just above 1c , today is 1.3c . The snow depts were very small but at least covered all surfaces

If people were expecting a string of ice days and 20 cm of snow they were always going to be disappointed

You dont need that for cold weather ..........................as is proven

You might locally have seen that but nowhere in your area was officially that cold yesterday.. In fact officially 2.7C was the coldest in your region. 😊

Banbury's nearest official station reached 3.5C yesterday. 

Nationwide it certainly isn't the coldest spell since 2013.. Last winter saw plenty of cold & snow up north.. Last winter also saw temps below -4C down here on the southcoast consecutive nights running, and even some snow for me in February. ❄️

Well the max here yesterday was 2.9'c. Although unofficial, that doesn't mean it's wrong and bearing in mind the ground remained frozen hard in the shade I'm happy with it.

Official stations only provide limited coverage and in more rural locations cold in winter can be more substantive than at official sites, just as readings from frost hollows at night can be substantially lower than the "norm"

Yes of course, you will always have a varient . Last Year South Newington which sends its detaild to the Met had a temp of 1c, Banbury was 3c..............it happens , I'm afraid

I wasn't talking about Nationwide , as you should well know in Winter you will always have degrees of differences.

This morning I drove 5 miles East to see my Mum and difference was incredible ( in snowfall terms)and 0.6c colder than Banbury

exactly just like built up urban areas tend to be warmer in spring/summer months then official stations which are often semi rural/ rural areas 😊 

Here comes Spring.

Exactly right Dave.

Lets see what the official reading for tofay is...................in my back garden it is 1.6c . I bet where there is good snow cover to my East...it would be colder

These charts are not without interest.  A little 'under the radar' while we worry about when  and whether any milder weather is going to creep in later in the week.

Dew Points:     http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgfs025meur.html

2m Temps:      http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs544.gif

850 Temps:     http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs542.gif

Precipitation:   http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs513.gif

I am not a total expert on the physics of these situations but to me a few tweaks here and there and we could be in for a little surprise.  Over the years I have seen how drier colder air can cut back in under the advancing milder air in these situations, even when the latter is projected to be more in the ascendency.  Late December 1981 contained a couple of these scenarios as did the the end of February 1963.  OK status wise this may not be in the same league but that is one hell of a blob of cold air to the East.  It is also notable how in the medium term the GFS manages to keep the 1030mb line covering much of central Europe and into Scandi within the cold air on its last couple of runs (especially the 0000hrs). 

No conclusions, but points of interest for coldies.

According to my garden spring arrived in December....

There's some very pretty colours on that chart. Not quite sure what it would mean in terms of weather though.

according to mine (still mostly under snow cover), winter arrived in January

What on Earth is all that pink stuff? Is this from the ECM op? Looks like Seville could be in for the mid 20s if that comes off and the 850s are high enough.

I'd happily take it 5 weeks later than that...but not yet, eh? Give us a chance.

I like that chat  Fingers crossed!

Looks like the atlantic is going to smash back into the uk by Thursday and temps of 12c forecast here on Friday.That lovley chart could very well come to fruition shortly after.