The alignment of the high looks all wrong to me but at 240 there's definitely something cooking.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/240_mslp850.png?cb=350

...and back to the pseudo-reality of the models...

here's the ECM in FI: Pressure rising to the N.  Worth keeping a weather eye on.

That's a mighty brave call there!

Personally, given that GEFS is touting high pressure over us (= frosts this time of year) and that the ECM run has the SW'lies lasting all of two and a bit days... well, I'll say no more.

Here we go, that rare green shading is starting to appear!

I suspect as it moves south east we may also see yellow which I have never seen modelled for the UK before. Quite amazing.

This is the problem at relying on 850hpa temperatures; you miss amazing situations like this. The end of the week looks freezing in the east with possible ice and freezing rain! 

I'll hold you to that  We had similar predictions of a written off January in reference to December's pattern, and look what we've had recently (btw referring to the pattern change rather than the severity of it!). 

I can see the milder, or at least average weather returning until the end of the month but beyond that is anyone's guess, and I cannot stress that word enough 'guess'. 

How bizarre Q- the colour key shows pluie verglacante as green, as does the map and yet the literal key at the top has it as 'violet'.

Only by midday friday do we loose our cold source from France and things can finally warm up. 

Still that is utterly insane, 2C in the north east with 5C uppers; never seen anything like it. Okay yes I have under HP inversion conditions, but this is nothing like this; the 850hpa winds are strong southwesterly. 

Why is no one commenting on this? Biggest freezing rain event possible in years if this comes off. I'd say its similar to 2012 when the synoptics were similar, but this one is more impressive.

ECM 240hrs indeed. Would like to see it repeated over the next few runs, but we'll worth keeping an eye on.

Ground temps looking too high for freezing rain?!

country file has double figures by the end of week for the foreseeable.

This is the end of the cold spell though, at this point things are warming up. Believe it or not WRF predicts a widespread ice day for the east on Thursday. These synoptic are very interesting; this happened in 2012 but not to the extent it is happening now. 

Darren I confess that post was replying to my 'conclusive' statement, albeit before today's ECM. Given how ECM itself has not covered itself very well either I still maintain the most likely scenario from Thursday is ten days plus of the Atlantic.

The +240 ECM however does have 'that' look about it.

I looked at the Manchester GFS 12z ensembles and what struck me is apart from the around the 23rd to 25th January, how few preciptation spikes they are and how high the SLPs are.

If it is 10 days plus of Atlantic, its a weak one going off GFS ensembles.

It is indeed a 'modified' flow as high pressure will be close to the south, keeping rainfall rates down especially compared to recently. And as it stands there is very little in the way of snow in the offing from Friday. BUT - a week is a very long time in this business, especially at the moment, so there's always time for change.

Very interesting possible weather.... I've experienced proper freezing rain only once... At the end of December 1995 iirc.  a max of -1 with solidly frozen ground after a frigid end to the month.  A few flakes to start off with then rain for many hours, giving everything a 1cm+ skin of ice... Lethal to get about in though!

Yes I don't think we've seen the last of cold weather in January. The ECM looks quite promising already.

ECM 216-240 is an interesting evolution to say the least 

?

It isn't just the GFS/WRF either take a look at the ARPEGE.

Unbelievably there is snow actually falling on the leading edge of that according to the ARPEGE look:

The temptation is to say the model 'has made an error', but it hasn't, don't forget lots of levels are modelled here the ARPEGE is perfectly aware how high 850hpa temperatures are. So how is snow possible at +6C 850hpa? Well it isn't, but the ARPEGE doesn't actually have a freezing rain parameter so it sees freezing rain as snow. Now lets look at the 2m temperatures; remember that 850hpa temp.

Lol, -2C in the east and 0C widely. What do you think is going to happen when you put a front slap over such a negative lapse rate?

Answer:

If the 850hpa temp is below zero: Snow 

If its around zero: Ice

If its above zero: Freezing rain.

Which is why I posted this link a few posts above to show that for a large swathe the ground temperatures are below freezing (according to the GFS that is) http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=t1dm&HH=120&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Also I'd point out that the true holy grail of precipitation in the UK is ice. I've seen Freezing rain but I've never seen ice before in the UK (I've been in an ice storm once in Iceland when a warm front came over). To get ice the snow should be almost melted but not quite, so when it passes through the cold layer it can re-nucleate. To get ice we would need, I recon, 850hpa temperatures to be no less than about +0.5C and no more than +1.5C and the 950hpa temperature should be subzero. I think this is possible.  

As has been said a very good looking ECM at day 10. JMA also looks very good at day 8. Hopefully we won't have to wait too long for another cold spell.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1921.html

There have been no white flags raised by me!

Much as the model output through most of December (prior to Xmas) was dire for coldies and there did seemt o be some people on the point of throwing the towel in, the one factor that was still in the favour of those wanting cold was that time was still very much on their side. Even though it ultimately come off, I imagine there couldn't have been many people during Christmas and New Year thinking that a few days into January, both GFS and ECM would be teasing us with major heights rises over Greenland.

The situation we were in during December was pretty hopeless for cold, but I think we've forward somewhat since then.