No spring sunshine for you though - probably lots of cloud and rain though. Fingers crossed for that!

If the GFS 12z is correct then it's still cold all the way out to Friday, away from the far west:

But the change is imminent

UKMO wants to end the cold spell sooner than GFS

or rather doc 

"get your facts first, then you can distort them as much as you please" 😂 (Mark Twain)

Only joking. Your absolutely spot on- its remaining cold for quite a few people for some days yet 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2016011712/UN120-21.GIF?17-17

Normal service has resumed. Now a waiting game for coldies. Lets hope this much heralded blocking in Feb actually materialises

According to mine it's been spring since early 2013. Still waiting for the other seasons to turn up!

Surely you got a bit of summer in July 13?

The -5 850 isotherm drifts back across SE England on the 12z GFS.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_81_mslp850.png?cb=639

But not long after the +5 is back.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_129_mslp850.png?cb=915

And 2014 which was warmer than average bar August.. 

No not really. I want more than 2 fine days and a thunderstorm. Same as I want more than slightly below average and no snow. Something that for whatever reason, seems to be absent these last few years. 

Sorry for OT posts.

Pretty much conclusive now - a slow dissolution this week of the current cool spell from the SW, with a return to near or slightly above average temperatures and unsettled the further North you are. 

Relaxing away from the MO activity now until another cold appears on the horizon or better still the arrival of the Spring convective season.

 Really? I thought they looked very similar and consistent.

Thursday 12z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.gif

Friday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.gif

Perturbation 1 of GEFS ends with a record-breaking high. Somehow I don't think this chart will come off!

EDIT: That said, there are a significant number of members of the ensembles which bring a rather strong high over London:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ext=fr&mode=2&sort=0

All but one member bring 1035 or higher at some stage after T+180, ie the second half of the run. 15 out of 20 break the 1040 barrier, as do the op and control.

This could well be the first steps of working out the next weather pattern after the surge of SW'lies next weekend... (assuming they happen, of course, but it's odds-on they will at the moment!)

Indeed Darren. High Pressure very much appearing in GEFS in the longer term and perhaps, as you state, that could be the next topic of debate. The real big issue will now be the exact location and that of course, can mean the difference between very cold, cold, average, mild or very mild. One to watch.

For some reason the mood is fairly optimistic in the other place that the cold spell may hang on, or at least sow the seeds for another one. 

Its interesting that things are trending west, but I would still be amazed if this was pulled off against the odds. 

Hmm, there is this trend to increase heights in the barents. Here is the NAVGEM.

I think the NAVGEM is the best model for the effects of the sea ice which I think is important given the barents is abnormally largelly ice free, meaning it may be easier to get HP forming there than usual. Note the lower heights on the GFS in that region.

A conceivable height rise in that part of the world, I think, is the best bet for cold spell hunting.

WRF 102 hours. Thursday evening, cold winds are still coming in from the SE, and temperatures across the east are still subzero.

Actually, if moisture comes into this I think there is a serious risk of freezing rain as cold surface winds keep everything cold despire mild upper winds.

This is quite remarkable, a negative lapse rate; positively american.

And while a negative lapse rate is very rare in the UK over such a large height it is very common in the US. These sort of profiles scream ICE. In fact the Americans call this sleet, which is not a mix of rain and snow or partially melted snow but snow melting in a warm layer to refreeze to ice pellets; actual american style sleet is extremely rare in the UK. Much rarer than snow.

Yes a solid collective from most output for a return to south westerlies 

Once locked in to this pattern we can expect a written-off February until evidence appears of a SSw or other freak pattern changing driver.

Yesterday we were surprised how strong the sun felt, actually warming out of the breeze.

not long now and Spring will be arriving proper.

Must admit, the ECM 240 today is tasty - an ideal precursor to some deep cold advection from the NE. (How so, I hear some people ask - well, look at the kinks in the jet upstream, then note that they'll encourage heights to be "pulled back" westwards... along with that cold to the east!)

One swallow doesn't make a summer, but it's an interesting chart. Let's see whether it's a one off, or whether it'll be repeated tomorrow!

(And also worth mentioning that it's worlds away from the G(E)FS and its pressure rises over the UK... not that that means much at this range!)