theweatheroutlook

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kmoorman
19 January 2016 11:41:07
The GFS ensemble will once again paint a much more encouraging picture than the Op, with lots of eastern promise in there.
Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
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Jiries
19 January 2016 11:41:09


 


too right Steve, a 15 or 16c could be possible in favoured spots? 


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


If this was July 35-36C would be easily reached.

Saint Snow
19 January 2016 11:50:51

I'm sure that many of us would agree that if it has got to be mild let's get it really mild


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


 


My monthly CET prediction strongly disagrees with you.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
19 January 2016 11:50:53


 


If this was July 35-36C would be easily reached.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 

...but it's not.

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Saint Snow
19 January 2016 12:02:07


...but it's not.


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gandalf The White
19 January 2016 12:13:33


As it seems to have become the primary straw for many in the last few days, a few thoughts of my own concerning SSWs:


1) They are modelled, like any other parameter, and so should be treated with the same levels of confidence or not as any chart
2) We seem to have been anticipating a SSW for weeks, and it keeps being put back
3) The mechanism by which warming propagates down into the lower levels is not very well understood, neither is the effect on the formation and position of blocking high pressure that may or may not result from this process
4) If a SSW should occur, and if it propagates down, and if it causes an HLB in the right place, such a process given the current literature may not occur for several weeks after said SWW
5) To summarise, if it's a SWW that people are looking for to deliver a cold spell, then don't expect any results until mid-Feb


Just an opnion of course.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


I think that's a fair summary of the position, Neil.


I think it's worth stressing that there's a difference between a normal gradual warming in the stratosphere and a SSW; the emphasis is on the 'sudden'.  That's a rapid warming (of 40-50C) in just a couple of days.  In contrast. at the tail end of the 06z GFS run there's warming of around 30*C in 3 days.


There's something from the MetOffice about the prospect for this winter that includes a paragraph about SSWs, here:


http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/tag/sudden-stratospheric-warming/


Also something specifically about SSWs here: http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2013/01/08/what-is-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-ssw/


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


tallyho_83
19 January 2016 12:14:35


 


Well, even taking that chart at face value, you can see that it would not take much for the Euro HP to link up with the Scandi-Siberian HP and get pulled north.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Yes - what if the HP over central Europe moves northwards or the Scandinavian HP moves south? The y both link and form an almighty block? It's a 50/50 chance eh?

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Jiries
19 January 2016 12:18:15


...but it's not.


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


Correct because we won't that get setup in July ever again period.  We saw how we got denied last year summer with potential set-up being prevented every time.  At least if there sunshine and some warmth then bring it on as I am now feeling Spring mode after the rubbish damp cold spell we had recently and sun are increasing strength now.

picturesareme
19 January 2016 12:23:26
Well latest metoffice extended has removed all hints of cold in the southeast and replaced with dry & mild 😐
Euro slug part 2??
Jiries
19 January 2016 12:25:59

Well latest metoffice extended has removed all hints of cold in the southeast and replaced with dry & mild 😐
Euro slug part 2??

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Would take that if there no other option than cold rain or mild and wet.  I wouldn't mind if we going to see this 2003 set-up starting this month as it did brought 17C and sunny skies on Jan 2003 followed by good Spring and hot summer as long Northern blocking does not take resident by spring to summer.

Gandalf The White
19 January 2016 12:26:37


GFS 6z really pushing out the mild boat for early next week. I'm sure that many of us would agree that if it has got to be mild let's get it really mild and more importantly bright and dry too. 


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


The 06z indicates maxima next week for the South East of:


Monday 8C, Tuesday 12C, Wednesday 13C, Thursday 11C.   Friday looks like back to single figures again.


So, perhaps 3-4C above average and it will no doubt feel quite nice after 10 days of cold weather.


 


 


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


idj20
19 January 2016 12:29:53


As it seems to have become the primary straw for many in the last few days, a few thoughts of my own concerning SSWs:


1) They are modelled, like any other parameter, and so should be treated with the same levels of confidence or not as any chart
2) We seem to have been anticipating a SSW for weeks, and it keeps being put back
3) The mechanism by which warming propagates down into the lower levels is not very well understood, neither is the effect on the formation and position of blocking high pressure that may or may not result from this process
4) If a SSW should occur, and if it propagates down, and if it causes an HLB in the right place, such a process given the current literature may not occur for several weeks after said SWW
5) To summarise, if it's a SWW that people are looking for to deliver a cold spell, then don't expect any results until mid-Feb


Just an opnion of course.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Can't really argue with all that what with me "getting into" this aspect of medium range forecasting.

And indeed, Gusty, if we can't manage a decent enough snowy spell, might as well go the other way and go mild big time where I could feel the warmth from the slowly rising late January noon sun. Heck, I've been in the back yard doing odds and sods today and I ended up sweating in the sunshine despite the shade temperature of 4 C. There's no wind to make it feel colder than it needs to be.  

Of course, even that "extreme mildness" and it's associated synoptics are a long way off in forecasting terms and thus probably will get watered down as we get nearer to the time, but for now it does please me.

Folkestone Harbour. 
picturesareme
19 January 2016 12:40:50


 


Would take that if there no other option than cold rain or mild and wet.  I wouldn't mind if we going to see this 2003 set-up starting this month as it did brought 17C and sunny skies on Jan 2003 followed by good Spring and hot summer as long Northern blocking does not take resident by spring to summer.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


i for wouldn't mind a warm spring summer combo Jires but you know how fickle our climate is 😂

Saint Snow
19 January 2016 12:48:25

 


i for wouldn't mind a warm spring summer combo Jires but you know how utterly crap our climate is 😂


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


Fixed


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
picturesareme
19 January 2016 12:50:16


 


 


Fixed


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


😂😂

tallyho_83
19 January 2016 12:53:18
So no chance of any wintry weather in February!? - which of course was due to be the coldest and the best chance of wintry weather LOL. What a disaster then.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


JACKO4EVER
19 January 2016 12:58:32


 


The 06z indicates maxima next week for the South East of:


Monday 8C, Tuesday 12C, Wednesday 13C, Thursday 11C.   Friday looks like back to single figures again.


So, perhaps 3-4C above average and it will no doubt feel quite nice after 10 days of cold weather.


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


should hopefully raise the CET a little if some milder nights are thrown in too

Maunder Minimum
19 January 2016 12:59:51

So no chance of any wintry weather in February!? - which of course was due to be the coldest and the best chance of wintry weather LOL. What a disaster then.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


What a load of suckers we are! We all got fooled again!


There is no point hoping for the white stuff in lowland England anymore.

New world order coming.
Dasaint76
19 January 2016 13:19:55

Very first post! Love the combination of knowledge and banter on this forum. The best on the net!!! I am a novice whonisnlearning from you all.


So I take it talk of likely ssw's, build up of cold to our east knocking on our door and split jet streams shooting North past Scotland and round to Finland are all out the window now?

Essan
19 January 2016 13:24:38

It's all Alex's fault .....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3406024/Hurricane-Alex-winter-haters-favor-Braun.html

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Dasaint76
19 January 2016 13:25:08

[quote=Dasaint76;758607]


Very first post! Love the combination of knowledge and banter on this forum. The best on the net!!! I am a novice who is learning from you all.


So I take it talk of likely ssw's, build up of cold to our east knocking on our door and split jet streams shooting North past Scotland and round to Finland are all out the window now?


The models have reverted back to Atlantic based south westerlies as far as the eye can see?


 

soperman
19 January 2016 14:10:15


It's all Alex's fault .....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3406024/Hurricane-Alex-winter-haters-favor-Braun.html


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Thanks for posting that Essan.  Clearly last night, Schaffs and his team must have thought there was a chance of the Arctic AO winning the battle. The computer says 'No' this morning.


I am a bit depressed about the lack of cold for the next couple of weeks and the Meto outlook FWIW for the beginning of February is dire.


I am off to Kerala for 3 weeks on 10th February so was hoping for a proper wintry spell this season.  I am reluctantly coming to the conclusion that I will need to wait until next winter for proper cold and snowfall.


 

Solar Cycles
19 January 2016 14:22:41


It's all Alex's fault .....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3406024/Hurricane-Alex-winter-haters-favor-Braun.html


Originally Posted by: Essan 

In the words of ( albeit a play on words ) that god damn awful alleged comedian Roy Chubby Brown, Alex......... Who the f**k is Alex.😁

Maunder Minimum
19 January 2016 14:26:00


 


Thanks for posting that Essan.  Clearly last night, Schaffs and his team must have thought there was a chance of the Arctic AO winning the battle. The computer says 'No' this morning.


I am a bit depressed about the lack of cold for the next couple of weeks and the Meto outlook FWIW for the beginning of February is dire.


I am off to Kerala for 3 weeks on 10th February so was hoping for a proper wintry spell this season.  I am reluctantly coming to the conclusion that I will need to wait until next winter for proper cold and snowfall.


 


Originally Posted by: soperman 


Well, let's hope solar minimum and a neutral ENSO can achieve something on our behalf next winter. As Essan's DM article indicates, it appears Alex was a spanner in the works this time around.

New world order coming.
Solar Cycles
19 January 2016 14:58:19


 


Well, let's hope solar minimum and a neutral ENSO can achieve something on our behalf next winter. As Essan's DM article indicates, it appears Alex was a spanner in the works this time around.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

I'm not all that sure that Alex is responsible per se as all that WAA pushed into the Arctic should've aided blocking down the line not destroyed it. So we may have to look further afield for other teleconnective factors, that or simply plain old bad luck again.

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