Worth saying there still is talk of that, well scientific research actually. However, don't expect it every year even when the arctic ice has reduced much further.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  Troughs of Low pressure will move NE across the UK today clearing the East later with a ridge of High pressure under a mild SW flow reaching all areas today and lasting for much of tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles will be around 8000ft today falling to closer to 6000ft for a time tomorrow. Snowfall is not expected except on the highest summits of Scotland in showers later.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable and windy weather with rain at times. Generally mild but some cooler spells in the North with wintry showers at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow to blow across the UK in a North or Northeast direction over the weekend before moving West to east across the UK next week in a much stronger state before becoming more undulating in Week 2 but remaining in a West to East pattern at around 50-55 deg North.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Atlantic domination of the weather over the UK throughout the next few weeks between High pressure to the South and Low pressure rushing East to the North. The pressure gradient between this general pressure set-up steepens next week with gales or severe gales at times for all with some colder interludes across the North with wintry showers at times. Later in the second week it looks like less windy and unsettled weather develops as High pressure moves in closer to the South or SW with a spell of dry and fine weather with some night frosts for a time.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is very similar to the above run today with a wet and wild period next week with some cooler interludes in the North with wintry showers mixed with mild and wet weather affecting all at times. The pattern eases somewhat in Week 2 with a North/South split developing again with a lot of dry, bright and sometimes mild weather in the South with spells of rain still in the North mixed with drier spells here too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA  The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning are a very mixed bunch none of which shows anything particularly wintry for the UK with the bias towards High pressure to the SW or South with winds between SW and NW from all members and varying amounts of Atlantic Lows and depressions affecting the North almost certainly with a more mixed amount of affect for the South.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows West to SW winds next week, strong at times with spells of rain and gales or severe gales in exposure. Though technically mild for the most part some colder spells behind cold fronts could bring a few wintry showers across the hills of the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate the milder conditions well with a SW feed of winds from the Azores wafting across the UK at the weekend with some moist air and fronts delivering some rain across the North and West before more appreciable wind and rain arrives early next week as a cold front moves slowly in from the West.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning shows unsettled and sometimes wet and windy weather across the UK through the next 10 days. Very mild conditions at first will ease back somewhat next week towards more average levels at the same time as Westerly gale or severe gales and rain followed by showers becomes the theme later on before an even further switch towards the NW might deliver rather chilly and blustery weather with more wintry showers towards the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a windy but broad mild West or SW flow across the UK across the next 7 days with rain and drizzle at times with some slightly colder more showery conditions across the far North and rather less wet and windy weather at times in the South where some very mild days look likely. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows a very windy period of weather lasting the 10 days with some very mild weather in the first few days before temperatures slowly fall off next week to more average levels and maybe somewhat below average at times in the North towards the end of the period as the winds veer more towards a WNW direction at times. There will be various spells of rain throughout the period most prolific across the West and North with showers following, turning wintry over the hills especially in the North. Severe gales could also affect exposed locations especially later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart is very supportive of a pattern highlighted by the Operational run with a very strong signal that Westerly winds between Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the South will be present across the UK 10 days from now with mild and occasionally wet weather in a strong westerly flow but with slow trend towards colder more showery conditions at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning continue to portray the Atlantic under complete control of the UK weather over the next two weeks.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS at 99.5 pts then UKMO at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 88.0 pts then GFS at 87.6 pts. Then at 8 Days GFS has taken over the leading spot from ECM with 67.1 pts to 66.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.9 pts to 46.4 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  Another morning of model observation which sees the Atlantic Ocean having complete domination across the UK over the next few weeks. All models show relentless winds from between SW and NW throughout the 15 days period with the main theme being the slow progression of winds slowly veering from a very mild SW direction early in the period towards a more westerly or even West North-westerly direction later on. There also seems a lot of support for relentless High pressure to remain down over Spain and the Azores with a strengthening of the gradient of pressure across the UK giving rise to gales or severe gales at times next week. As winds swing westerly briefly behind cold fronts some colder air will sweep across the North at times at least with some wintry showers likely over the hills and with time this risk looks like it could come all the way down into the South too as the Low pressure areas focus further East to the North of Scotland and maybe Scandinavia. However, any sustained shift towards a colder blast from the NW or North let alone the East looks a long way off still on this morning's output as the Jet stream remains relentless and quite strong as well as badly positioned for the UK and given these reasons along with the heights remaining stubbornly high just to our South it looks unlikely that we will be seeing widespread cold weather across the UK this side of early February given the output on offer this morning.  

Next Update Saturday January 23rd 2016 from 09:00

The signal is definitely there in the new generation of weather forecast models run in ensemble mode. There is still a lot of scepticism about this prediction in scientific circles and the key to this is to understand exactly why the models give this signature. Clearly before any forecast can be made it is very important to understand what is a real physical effect which has to be understood to be valid.

I'm sure the science is sound but I'll make a much simpler prediction which I think is likely to verify. If I assume my innings gives me another 35 winters in the UK I expect between 3 and 6 of them to produce notable cold spells. 

It is not our latitude which is the problem - it is perfect to get loads of winter snow and ice - our problem is our longitude!

The NAD and the prevailing SW greyness destroy our winters.

The problem with that approach is that you'll rule out each of those other variables out one by one if you use the same reasoning. And still be none the wiser. 

Amazing video from the Beeb/Meto for the rest of winter and early spring.

Seems many signals point to cold.

https://t.co/kSWrETx6Ko

Another angle....

When uncle Barty pays a visit he normally outstays his welcome

Great educational video for layman's everywhere

Seems they go in threes - three good ones then three rubbish ones, to be fair this one isn't done for just yet but at least last year we had one early morning of a slushy white covering down here which is better than this Winter so far! Very difficult to call what will happen next though as El Nino should be weakening which may with any strat warming give us a better shot at something colder.  All speculative and hopefully some eye candy soon rather than the all too familiar charts like this mornings output.

You can bet northern blocking will be in abundance from late May to late August though - we have ideal Summer synoptics in Winter and ideal Winter synoptics in Summer recently!

Great video, great indications. 

Pity no-one in the GFS/ECM camps was watching so they could have tweaked their output which seems to be westerly-dominated for the foreseeable future.

There was a time in the 80s and 90s when I managed to impress neighbours with forecasting the onset of cold weather, basing in on '3 weeks after New York'. But if such a teleconnection was real then, and not just fortuitous, it certainly hasn't worked in the last decade or so.

Very interesting, thanks for posting!

The interesting thing about that video is early spring is specifically mentioned. I've been suggesting for months that the El Nino backloaded 'winter' signal makes more sense if spring is included. 

If what they are suggesting comes to pass, it could be that a repeat of the same period in 2013 isn't entirely out of the question. That March was, I think, colder than any month during the 2012/13 winter, even though there was a coldish spell around mid-Jan 2013 and again towards the end of that February.