Q, how do you work out the -5°C t850hP isotherm from these charts? The reason I ask is because at the same time the GFS has the isotherm further south and much of the U.K. in sub-5°C t850hPa air. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1202.gif 

Well well well. I must admit I didn't expect GFS to continue championing the Euro high in lower-res for this long!

It still seems to be lagging behind the other models with respect to the tropical signals but whatever... we can focus on whatever progress is made within the 10 day range, for now.

Well, that and the tragic return of excessive rain amounts precisely where it's least wanted. As cool-headed as I like to be these days, I won't deny that this winter will be long remembered as utterly dreadful for many parts of the UK Dec-Jan.

Can Feb redeem the winter? It remains a distinct possibility, regardless of what GFS keeps throwing at us. Not saying it will bring epic cold weather though, or even if it does not as soon as many would like.

I think we should know a lot more about the true way forward by around 5 days from now. That's when most of the model guidance as the MJO into gear, at which point the propagation through the Pacific should be handled more effectively (currently it's basically missing from most of the output). This is at least as important as the strat. displacement IMO.

Until then... grin and bear it? Though there's a chance of making enough of a mid-Atlantic ridge in the 7-10 day range to bring a dry day or two with seasonal temperatures.

Winter 2016 is not lost yet, but when it comes to what we need to save it, the models are like:

Mostly intuition. I have tried it on other charts and checked to see I was right on alot of charts; at this point its a case of recognizing patterns in the SLP and 500hpa heights. To answer your specific question, the -5C line is more extensive on the GFS for two reasons

1) UK is closer to warm seclusion in the north, troughing and presence of occluded front raises temperature

2) UK is further from the ridge so cold air has had less time to establish. 

Just to stress that the exact phrasing we used on the web outlook is for signs of "something colder" (ie relative to earlier Feb).... not "much colder", which has very different connotations. That's not to rule out the latter, but it's the not meaning intended in the current forecast.

This possible shift in emphasis remains based on a combination of signals from GloSea5 and last Thurs' EC Monthly. Whilst both lean towards either neutral or -ve temp anomalies after mid-month, GloSea5 has shown some waxing and waning re strength/likelihood of Atlantic ridging, but this (at present) remains the more favoured possibility. We await today's prognosis from that suite but equally, whatever the next EC Monthly update produces later this evening. The next 3-monthly summary for contingency planners (from UKMO Seasonal Team) will reflect GloSea5 probabilistic output spanning Feb to April.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_117_preciptype.png?cb

Wintry for some

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_120_preciptype.png?cb

Saturday looks a chilly one

This looks like a snow event from yorkshire northwards. 

GFS12z 5 day precip accumulation may be overstating things, possibly because I changed the script earlier today. Can someone post a link to a comparable chart on one of the other sites please so I can compare? 

No show from ECM 12z on Wetterzentrale thus far. Wonder if the site has crashed?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

Is this the one David-12z from Wetterzentrale but not sure if it's ECM.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2016012512/120-777UK.GIF?25-12 

Perfect! Consistent with the TWO one so I guess it's just a very wet outlook.

Some decent cold on show from ECM

Snow risk as I see it on Sunday

Warm front coming into cold air is always interesting, the snow potential will depend on how well defined the thermal gradient is. We need a strong ana warm front (or occluded) to get a good chance of snow on the leading edge. 

Neither are the pros, according to the predictions I have read both here and in the media thread in recent days. The MetO day 16-30 update both today and over the weekend, plus the BBC monthly outlook offer some encouragement for those of us wanting a change (I think that's the majority of us now!)

At least whatever signal they are and have been seeing re a possible change during Feb is still there and has been consistent throughout the season. As James said earlier, patience is required in the meantime, and a lot of it methinks. Hopefully we shall start seeing some signs if a change in the model runs as we go into February.

EC 850 hPa pressure profile at day 10, seems to be picking up on some sort of ridge, which seems to be in line with the long-range forecast from the BBC that I read earlier, but no doubt tomorrow's run will show something entirely different again.

Falling snow for some on Saturday

LOL JFF  What does that mean

P17 Tying to get a block going

As does p9

Nothing cold about this:

Run to the hills