Yes, we should by now all know to totally disregard the model with the consistently highest verification statistics. 

Seriously though, as encouraging as the ECM op run is for some parts it will be filed under the "for interest only" category until we get a few more runs showing something similiar.

No, I would describe it as mediocre with more interest in the north. I'm not seeing it through rose tinted glasses either as I would genuinely prefer some early spring warmth now. 

Doc, was it Enrique or Julio involved in those verification stats? ;-)

Edit: now you've edited your post and made me look stupid.

😂😂😂

That genuinely make me spray my crunchy nut cornflakes all over the table 😀

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_360_preciptype.png?cb=404

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_372_preciptype.png?cb=404

J F F

Snowy at the end

Are you looking at the same set of charts as I am???

UKMO isn't 'that' bad , a 168 h chart could be quite pleasing ( for the cold crew)

ECM is a good run , a run you can't dismiss at the minute , unless you are throwing all your eggs into the GFS basket?

It certainly can't be labelled dreadful

This morning, I am voting for ECM.

The only time you'll vote for Europe.  

Very quick with your return Brian

Scotland could do well out of a ukmo evolution however.

As was mentioned yesterday, the old wetter site isn't updating ECM, try viewing the run here.

 http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/de/default.aspx

Indeed best coldie charts for a long time this morning. With the ukmo the pick of them a fantastic 144h chart.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A series of fronts will move slowly SE across the South and East of the UK today with a strong and mild SW flow ahead of them. Once passed a colder and slacker flow arrives under a ridge of High pressure before a strong WSW flow returns to the North and West later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges between 8000ft over the SE of England to just 1500ft across Scotland where snowfall has occurred and will continue in showery form today. In the South the freezing level will fall to around 4000ft for a time tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly unsettled and windy with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow continuing to dominate the weather across the UK over the next few weeks as it remains strong throughout and blowing West to East across the UK for much of the time with small undulations both North and South while remaining between the confines of 50-55 deg North if the Equator.  

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a continuing period of very volatile weather across the UK alternating between wet and very windy conditions mixed with colder brighter weather with showers, wintry at times. Low pressure will be maintained to the North and High to the South through the first week. Temperatures will range between somewhat mild and rather cold as more showery air crosses over at times with the theme of particularly stormy weather shown at times in the second week for all as the axis of Low pressure moves further South than in the first week.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today shows unsettled and very windy weather too with rain at times under the same synoptic pattern as the Operational Run although for a time in the second week High pressure closer to the South offers another spell of very mild if windy SW winds with rain slow moving across the Northwest before swinging SE again into a more mobile pattern later on. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters show a unanimous theme of winds from a West or NW source in two weeks time, still strong and with enough influence from Low pressure to the North and NW to ensure further rain and showers at times for all areas in fluctuating temperatures but never desperately cold.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows continuing Westerly winds and spells of rain alternating with colder and more showery interludes with some snow in the North especially later as the Low complex drifts towards Scandinavia in winds which swing more towards the NW ahead of a ridge of High pressure moving in from the West on Day 6.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show plenty of troughs crossing the UK in an often strong and blustery wind from the West. Temperatures will range between more often mild in the South and rather colder in the North with all areas seeing rain at times as both warm and cold fronts continue to affect all parts of the UK at times.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning also maintains Atlantic domination in the weather over the UK through the next 10 days with further spells of rain at times in strong Westerly winds. On this run there is a more definitive period of quieter and colder weather towards the middle of next week as a strong ridge crosses East before wet and windy weather returns from the West by the end of the 10 day period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows a volatile and windy spell of weather with spells of rain and strong winds with colder more showery conditions moving down from the NW by the middle of next week as a weak ridge pushes North into the Atlantic.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today will raise a few eyebrows within the cold lovers fraternity today as the current wet and windy weather carries on for another week before a marked cold snap with snow showers move South across the UK on the rear of a depression exiting the North Sea towards the middle of next week. The following ridge brings frosty weather for a time before Low pressure on a much more Southerly track at Day 10 throws up a heady mix of rain, sleet and snow to the South of the UK by the end of next week in temperatures below average for all by then.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart must have little support from it's other members as the Mean Chart for 10 days today illustrates a lot of Low pressure over or near to the NW of the UK with the Jet Stream still strong but well South of the UK with rain and showers for all and cold enough for snow too at times on the hills despite a general Westerly flow being maintained.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning continue to endorse the trend shown yesterday of the Atlantic under complete control of the UK weather over the next two weeks with a tendency towards colder conditions later as Low pressure and the Jet Stream drift somewhat further South than currently.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.4 pts to GFS and UKMO at 88.6 pts each. Then at 8 Days ECM has taken over the leading spot from GFS with 67.7 pts to 67.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 48.8 pts to 48.3 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  More variation of the same pattern from the models today as the UK continues to be pummelled by a very strong Jet Stream crossing the Atlantic and crashing into the UK. All areas continue to be at risk of more rain, possibly disruptive at times especially over upland areas of the West and North. While as always there will be some areas that fair rather better than others with the South and East seeing the best of any drier and brighter periods. While temperatures overall should not present widespread problems in between weather systems some colder air may tuck in sufficient to give rise to a slight frost and indeed some wintry showers over the hills. Looking into the second week the models play around with different evolutions still based around an overall potentially wet and windy theme. the main thoughts are that if anything Low pressure will dig even deeper into the UK with more cold air entrained within the depressions airflows over the UK with more in the way of snow on hills at times. The ECM Operational at the end of it's run shows hints of something quite wintry late on and although a little isolated in it's projections shows what can happen when the Jet Stream moves South of the UK as it's predicted to do later next week. So while I still can't offer any particularly cold winter weather again this morning the model runs are far from boring and while rain, strong winds and fluctuating temperatures remain the theme for the foreseeable I think there is enough support for the elements to throw up at least the chance of a snowy surprise here and there longer term especially over the higher ground.    

Next Update Thursday January 28th 2016 from 09:00

Thank you Martin. Be glad to see end of high pressure and rain.. A good cold spell is needed.

Err Ian, have you forgotten about the mythical major height rise over Greeny that GFS went for in a number of op runs in the first week mof Jan, only to then drop this idea?

From what looked to be some sort of Tartan weave on yesterdays GEFS, today they have sorted themselves out to show a decent set of cold groupings - always marginal mind. But overall i would say a wintry'ish looking one. with an overal feel of "getting colder"

Cooler, then warmer, then colder, then warmer, then cooler again into Mid Feb.

Edit - also the snow Row looks as healthy as its ever been this winter for Liverpool  Plenty of 5's and 6's.  Not amazing by anyones standards, but shows that more than one member is thinking of snowy stuff.

Tartan weave? That's a new one on me, even though I'm from Scotland!

Ninja post.

The Euros are great this morning for two main reasons;

• Big drop of heights over Europe +120 to +144


• Arctic High pushing toward the Atlantic via Greenland following increased ridge via Alaska +120 to +144

GFS is missing the second point which reduces the extent to which the first is achieved. Notice how the range is one at which you'd usually take ECM/UKMO over GFS without question... but with the way things are at the moment, the usual rules can't be applied with such confidence.

With an amplification signal from the tropics a big player in deciding the outcome, we can only hope that the Euros are capturing this aspect more effectively. As far as I know, the American mets are in general sitting on the fence with it, while the Met Office are expecting the Euros to have the right idea but haven't been calling for the developments to take place as quickly (ECM's about  a week ahead of their schedule).

To me, a blend of the ECM and Met Office thoughts seems a reasonable guide; markedly colder (overall, compared to today) by around 10 days into Feb with an increased risk of snow and ice affecting England and Wales even to low levels at times.

Are you sitting comfortably folks? It's time to play 'Go Go MJO' 

I don't buy the EC op or control this morning. Far too soon for any ridge to survive. I think GFS has got this right at the moment

More patience required but it may be too late anyway for southern areas by the time any northerly comes

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016012706/gfs-0-216.png?6

The daffs and blossom will be out. Hideous chart for coldies

Another Feb 98 perhaps. At the moment that seems more likely than any cold outbreak

I get it from watching Channel 5.

Lovely chart for some useable weather in South