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phlippy67
29 January 2016 23:34:57
As far as the f/casts go it's basically colder tomorrow, milder Mon/Tue then colder again...then milder etc etc...but after 1st week of Feb turning increasingly colder...hopefully...
Gooner
29 January 2016 23:35:27


 


Don't think that'll be the case for long though, unless the models have the wrong idea.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


I agree , a cooling trend looks favourite


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


tallyho_83
30 January 2016 02:29:16
Brett Anderson talks of a Stratospheric warming occurring: -Will this affect our weather!?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-forecast-clues-through-february-1/54948263 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


PFCSCOTTY
30 January 2016 07:24:45
BBC weather at 0715. ...."a chilly day" only 9 or 10 degrees. ...desperate stuff. Roll on Spring, I have got totally fed up with this prolonged Autumn !
JACKO4EVER
30 January 2016 07:58:31

BBC weather at 0715. ...."a chilly day" only 9 or 10 degrees. ...desperate stuff. Roll on Spring, I have got totally fed up with this prolonged Autumn !

Originally Posted by: PFCSCOTTY 



If chilly is above average then we are doomed lol

doctormog
30 January 2016 08:41:21

Perhaps they were referring to the places affected by the cold strong winds and snow rather than the far south?

Just a thought.


Gavin D
30 January 2016 08:55:01

BBC weather at 0715. ...."a chilly day" only 9 or 10 degrees. ...desperate stuff. Roll on Spring, I have got totally fed up with this prolonged Autumn !

Originally Posted by: PFCSCOTTY 


Up north it will be chilly today with lots of snow showers in Scotland and highs not getting much above 4c for Northern England and Scotland

doctormog
30 January 2016 09:03:38

Yes Tomasz 's forecast summary has just stated that too. Cold with snow showers in the north and milder further south, so the suggestion that 9-10°C is chilly based on these comments seems strange.


Gooner
30 January 2016 09:10:36

Forecast to 6c here today and they won't be far off it.


 


Why do people take the temp in the far S and SW and tag it to all of the Uk.................temp is regional


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gusty
30 January 2016 10:25:53

BBC weather at 0715. ...."a chilly day" only 9 or 10 degrees. ...desperate stuff. Roll on Spring, I have got totally fed up with this prolonged Autumn !

Originally Posted by: PFCSCOTTY 


Couldn't agree more. This winter has broken me...again 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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ARTzeman
30 January 2016 13:34:09

Disappointing for not mention Southwest ,,,ie Somerset for any snow.....






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gooner
30 January 2016 22:58:25

N Miller hints at some longer spells of cold mid Feb


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


RobR
  • RobR
  • Advanced Member
31 January 2016 02:45:45
I was flicking through the channels earlier and got rather excited when Rob McElwee popped up on screen. I had no idea he worked for Al Jazeera News!
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Gavin D
31 January 2016 12:12:00
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Friday 5 Feb 2016 to Sunday 14 Feb 2016:

Very windy throughout Friday, and mild initially, with rain moving southeastwards through the day. Colder conditions follow into the northwest with blustery showers, falling as snow over higher ground and perhaps to lower levels at times. Generally colder on Saturday, with showery conditions persisting in the north and northwest, but milder, wet and windy weather will probably return from the southwest later. Thereafter the changeable and often unsettled picture will continue. Atlantic weather systems will bring periods of milder, wet and windy weather, but in-between these there will be colder and brighter interludes with showers, falling as snow in places. Temperatures generally averaging near normal, but with milder periods interspersed with much colder spells. There is the chance of more widespread cold but settled conditions developing towards mid-February.

UK Outlook for Monday 15 Feb 2016 to Monday 29 Feb 2016:

There is an increasing likelihood that mid-February will turn colder and more settled for a time, which will bring some bright and crisp days with cold and frosty nights. A northerly breeze may bring a few wintry showers onto exposed coasts. This quieter spell is likely to be relatively shorted-lived, however, with a return to unsettled conditions later in the month bringing wet and windy conditions, primarily over western and northern areas. Temperatures near average overall, but on the cold side at first, and perhaps mild at times later.
tallyho_83
31 January 2016 14:00:48
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Friday 5 Feb 2016 to Sunday 14 Feb 2016:

Very windy throughout Friday, and mild initially, with rain moving southeastwards through the day. Colder conditions follow into the northwest with blustery showers, falling as snow over higher ground and perhaps to lower levels at times. Generally colder on Saturday, with showery conditions persisting in the north and northwest, but milder, wet and windy weather will probably return from the southwest later. Thereafter the changeable and often unsettled picture will continue. Atlantic weather systems will bring periods of milder, wet and windy weather, but in-between these there will be colder and brighter interludes with showers, falling as snow in places. Temperatures generally averaging near normal, but with milder periods interspersed with much colder spells. There is the chance of more widespread cold but settled conditions developing towards mid-February.

UK Outlook for Monday 15 Feb 2016 to Monday 29 Feb 2016:

There is an increasing likelihood that mid-February will turn colder and more settled for a time, which will bring some bright and crisp days with cold and frosty nights. A northerly breeze may bring a few wintry showers onto exposed coasts. This quieter spell is likely to be relatively shorted-lived, however, with a return to unsettled conditions later in the month bringing wet and windy conditions, primarily over western and northern areas. Temperatures near average overall, but on the cold side at first, and perhaps mild at times later.


'Unsettled conditions later in the month' - 'Mild at times later? - Am I the only one struggling to make sense of their daily update - Have they not said (over the past week) that there would be some colder weather later from Middle of the month or later in the month the chances of colder weather increases!??Dear o dear!


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gandalf The White
31 January 2016 14:42:01


 


'Unsettled conditions later in the month' - 'Mild at times later? - Am I the only one struggling to make sense of their daily update - Have they not said (over the past week) that there would be some colder weather later from Middle of the month or later in the month the chances of colder weather increases!??Dear o dear!


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


It seems perfectly clear to me and consistent with yesterday's forecast.


Becoming colder and more settled mid-month but then turning milder and more changeable later, hence average temperatures overall.



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
31 January 2016 14:58:21


 


It seems perfectly clear to me and consistent with yesterday's forecast.


Becoming colder and more settled mid-month but then turning milder and more changeable later, hence average temperatures overall.



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes, that's what I thought too.


tallyho_83
31 January 2016 15:03:09
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 3 Feb 2016 to Friday 12 Feb 2016:

The start of this period is looking windy with sunny spells and showers, these wintry at times, especially in the north. In the lead up to the weekend, however, further rain and cloud will arrive from the west, perhaps with some snow for northern hills. Thereafter the unsettled picture should continue, with showers or longer spells of rain, especially in the north and west. There may be some further snow over northern hills and occasionally down to lower levels. Windy weather is also expected, with severe gales possible in the north and west. Temperatures start off cold across most parts, but maybe becoming gradually milder, reaching normal or near normal by the end of the period. However there is the chance of some cold, frosty nights in any drier interludes.

UK Outlook for Saturday 13 Feb 2016 to Saturday 27 Feb 2016:

Mid February looks like it may see a change from unsettled, often windy and wet weather interspersed with brief drier colder interludes, to generally colder, drier weather. This looks like it may manifest in change from a west or southwest airflow to a northerly or northwesterly airflow, which will bring some sunny days and cold, clear frosty mornings. Occasional showers will also be possible at times, mostly in the north, and they may fall as snow to low levels. Occasional cloudy, wet and windy interludes will still be possible however. Temperatures should start the period around normal, dropping to slightly below normal towards the end of February.


 


Really??? - Gosh - I must have missed it then! - I got "Slightly below normal towards end of February!" - Now today it's "Perhaps milder later!?" - That's a flip! Gosh so inconsistent and uncertain every update. Anyway, from now on I won't follow these met office updates.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


David M Porter
31 January 2016 15:16:41

My only hope is that the more settled spell that is forecast for around mid-February gets upgraded in terms of likely duratrion over the coming days. Given the very wet winter, many areas could do with all the dry weather going in the coming few weeks or so. The 16-30 day forecasts have been chopping and changing quite a lot at times in recent weeks so further changes in the coming days can't be ruled out, IMO.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
PFCSCOTTY
31 January 2016 15:27:48

[quote=tallyho_83;762928]


 


 


Really??? - Gosh - I must have missed it then! - I got "Slightly below normal towards end of February!" - Now today it's "Perhaps milder later!?" - That's a flip! Gosh so inconsistent and uncertain every update. Anyway, from now on I won't follow these met office updates.


[/quote


yes they are worthless , often wrong and fruitless in this long drawn-out Autumn of ours. 

doctormog
31 January 2016 15:48:07

It often baffles me that people criticise evolving forecasts that mirror the evolving weather outlook and model output! There are only two alternatives:
1) Don't bother with any medium range forecast as they may never be 100% correct when first written
2) Make a guess and stick to it regardless of the changing evidence.

If neither of these options is appealing then we have to accept that unless the models remain unchanging for the 5 to 30 day time period then forecasts will change to reflect that. It's not a case of the MO changing their minds but rather the model output changing.


Nordic Snowman
31 January 2016 15:53:56


 


Yes, that's what I thought too.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


...and ditto from me too (and with Peter).


Tally - their update has been consistent and a week on from last week, has simply progressed. You obviously expected (a.k.a hopecasted) the mid-month settled/colder spell (which they have always indicated as being relatively dry with height rises to the WNW of Britain) to be followed by the beast. Never presume that!


Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Bertwhistle
31 January 2016 15:58:35


It often baffles me that people criticise evolving forecasts that mirror the evolving weather outlook and model output! There are only two alternatives:
1) Don't bother with any medium range forecast as they may never be 100% correct when first written
2) Make a guess and stick to it regardless of the changing evidence.

If neither of these options is appealing then we have to accept that unless the models remain unchanging for the 5 to 30 day time period then forecasts will change to reflect that. It's not a case of the MO changing their minds but rather the model output changing.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I agree. It reminds me of the stock market- expect it to go up and down; we've just got to keep watch and decide when to buy it.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
SJV
31 January 2016 16:06:28


It often baffles me that people criticise evolving forecasts that mirror the evolving weather outlook and model output! There are only two alternatives:
1) Don't bother with any medium range forecast as they may never be 100% correct when first written
2) Make a guess and stick to it regardless of the changing evidence.

If neither of these options is appealing then we have to accept that unless the models remain unchanging for the 5 to 30 day time period then forecasts will change to reflect that. It's not a case of the MO changing their minds but rather the model output changing.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Excellent post  That last line in particular is one some other posters should try and understand a little better rather than going off on one and dismissing the forecasts as 'useless'. 

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