I think it is because they are currently in the middle of creating a new design for the site David, but the ECM charts are still being updated on the new site for now:

http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/de/default.aspx

Thanks Chunky.

Plenty of opportunities for something wintry when the cold NWly flow is over us.......further North looks idea though

ECM so far

A Chilly Northerly

Not much to get excited about unless you are high up in the North and West. Zonal with lows a bit further South at times 

Earlier in the week I mentioned how IMO the GFS has a tendency to pick up polar maritime incursions very well but as forecast time approaches a moderation takes place in subsequent runs. This Saturday is currently providing a good example with the -5C 850hPa struggling to making it to the south and the snow risk remaining farther north. 

Theres actually plenty to talk about in the models.  Had this been December this forum would have been buzzing.  As it is though, weve been seeing these charts for the past week, after a month of cold looking models moderating closer to T0, then followed by the last week or so of similar patterns that seem to moderate as the time goes on, I think everyone is suffering a bit of model fatigue as a result.

FI seems interesting, but i just dont seem to have the energy to get excited anymore.

Huffffffffffff

Edit: Quick look at the ensembles after i noticed 10*c + 850s in the charts.  Thats also under dry skies.  That could make for some very mild temperatures for the start of Feb.

Also- the Ensembles are a complete mess after that, which to me equates to the wiggly nature te Jet looks t take on over the next few days.. very very similar to last winter.

This looks very exaggerated when compared the latest Beeb forecast

Probably nothing like itnearer the day but shows a colder air flow

J F F  Deepest FI shows the colder air sinking South

The ECM 12z ensemble paints a reasonable picture.  After several mild days the mean trends down to just below average, with a clear cold cluster and only a couple of outliers delivering anything very mild.

The GFS 12z Op was at the mild end of the spectrum relative to the ECM output.

As for rainfall, an unwelcome uptick by ECM - but GFS 12z was the ultimate outlier....

ECM more UK-friendly this morning:

216: http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/pics/ECMOPEU00_216_1.png

Cold from the N. Pressure rise near Greenland. Trough Scandi. A slider. A snowy run for many.

Yes.... everyone should remain calm

I saw that Brian briefly checked in. Probably searching for his polar bear photo for the home page now

Trends Darren. All about the trend. Small troughs would probably develop in reality and the approaching slider could bring snow to the S from after 240.

Of course, all speculation and well into F.I. Still.... it offers a bit of hope?!

Edit: Besides, north of Manchester and inland Wales constitutes a vast area of the UK population

Really?

I agree with the sentiment though.

I suspect the ECM op is "at the coldest end" of the ensembles and I daresay the Op will be very different by 12z.

WI

There's some interest but it's really not gripping me.  With these marginal charts as we head into Feb my mindset quickly switches to wanting spring and summer, ever more so as I get older.  

A bit of reverse psychology from Brian

A bit of Victor from Darren.

A bit of rationale from Neil.

A bit of hope from me to send folks to work with a little less cortisol

Yes from experience we must see the GFS as the likelier option, no real overall changes this morning.

On the subject of hope GFS seems to over the last couple of runs intensified the strat event and has the reds appearing as early as 222 hours now. Ok still FI and may not amount to much but another straw to grab...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=222&mode=10&carte=1