BBC Monthly outlook:
So the SSW is out of the equation now and this drier and colder spell looks brief - even if we get one!?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook
A nightmare - even more so for the poor flood hit victims up north.
Monday 1 February Published at 10:00
Monthly Outlook
Summary
Stormy start. Will the disturbed weather end?
Following the exceptionally mild and wet December, January has drawn to a close with temperatures averaging out just a little above normal. Although north-west Scotland has had a dry month, parts of eastern Scotland and north-east England have had more than twice their normal January rainfall.
February will start off with the eighth named storm of the winter, Henry, giving further severe gales, but as the month goes on the wet and windy weather which has characterised the winter so far is expected to become less frequent, with some lengthier drier and cooler spells anticipated.
Monday 1 February—Sunday 7 February
Storm Henry followed by cooler, showery weather
The week begins with weather warnings in force for potentially disruptive gales over Scotland later on Monday and into Tuesday, as storm Henry passes close to northern Scotland. The whole country will have a very windy couple of days, with gales in many areas, but central and northern Scotland, apart from Shetland, will suffer the strongest and most damaging gusts - up to 90 mph in places. Monday will start mild and cloudy in the south but it will turn cooler with showers during the day. Tuesday and Wednesday will be rather cold, showery days, with the winds gradually easing. Showers will be most frequent over Northern Ireland and Scotland, where the showers will fall as snow on hills, while England and Wales will have the best of the sunny intervals.
There will be a change back to milder, rather windy weather with rain at times on Thursday and at first on Friday, before there is a change back to cooler, brighter weather but with showers in the north and west.
For the weekend, many places are expected to keep showery, windy weather with some sunshine and daytime temperatures a little on the cold side. There's a moderate risk that a new area of low pressure will form over the Atlantic, bringing a return to heavier rain and gales - with southern England and Wales more likely to be in the firing line for this development.
Monday 8 February—Sunday 14 February
Often bright and breezy but cool
The second week of February will start off with a showery type of weather established across the British Isles, with quite strong west or northwesterly winds bringing showers and clear or sunny intervals. With this wind regime, Scotland, Northern Ireland and western parts of Wales and northern England will see most frequent showers - these falling as snow on higher hills. Around midweek the showers are expected to die out, leaving a chilly but drier day or two with night frosts. For the end of the week, further areas of cloud, rain and strong winds are expected to approach the UK from the Atlantic. The track of the low pressure systems bringing this change is uncertain: most likely they will bring milder weather for a time, but if their track is more southerly the weather will remain chilly with an increased chance of the rain turning to snow on higher ground at least.
Monday 15 February—Sunday 28 February
No strong signal for wintry weather
So far, in broad terms, this winter has behaved much as expected. Strong El Niños in the Pacific, such as the ongoing event, are often associated with the unsettled and predominantly mild conditions over the UK and northwest Europe which have persisted through December and January. By late winter, changes in the pressure pattern over the north Pacific can lead to changes in the jet stream further round the northern hemisphere.
The implication for late February weather is that mild, wet and windy spells of weather are expected to become more sporadic and short-lived, while the intervening periods of drier, brighter and cooler weather with some night frosts will last longer. There is, as yet, no signal for any major change in the weather patterns which would lead to more severe wintry weather.
Next week
As February progresses, there will be greater confidence in the shape of late winter weather patterns over the UK. Lowland areas of England and Wales have seen little snow again this winter - is there much chance of a late frosty spell with some snow?
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83