I just watched the latest BBC f/cast and SKL showed some promising charts for next week however as the N.Sea is several degrees warmer than normal any Nly or Ely flow will just result in rain along the east coast, however there is a hint that the colder conditions are going to last throughout the week and a weather front stalling over central areas midweek may give some lucky people a bit of the white stuff...there's still hope...maybe it's the start of a winter spell that has been hinted at for a couple of months...

Downgrade since yesterday! - BBC SW spotlight local weather.

 

 

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Yes - but if the GFS models flip then the Met Office with go mild again. - Watch this space as it is subject to change. - Will be interesting to see the update tomorrow and what the models have in store.

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Hmm...high of +2c for southern England next Saturday!?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20160212 

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The Met Office do not change their forecasts based on the GFS models. I thought you knew that by now?

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I know obviously but I have noticed it's a coincidence that the minute we have a mild FI the minute the outlook by the MO is a milder one.

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Really? I've often noticed that the Met Office forecasts flip the opposite way to the model output we see... ie just as the GFS etc back off from a cold spell, the Met ramp it up, and vice versa.

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 17 Feb 2016 to Friday 26 Feb 2016:

On Wednesday, rain, sleet and hill snow is expected to move out of Scotland and Northern Ireland and into the north and west of England and Wales. Towards the southeast of England, dry and bright with frost and fog patches. Becoming bright and breezy across Scotland and Northern Ireland, with sunshine and wintry showers. On Thursday, the band of rain, and perhaps snow, is expected to move into southeast England as a weakening feature. After a frosty start, a mix of sunshine and wintry showers is expected elsewhere. Thereafter, the weather looks set to remain rather cold and changeable. Some wet and windy weather at times, but also some frosty conditions too between weather systems. Cold enough for snow at times, though mainly on higher ground and in the north.

UK Outlook for Saturday 27 Feb 2016 to Saturday 12 Mar 2016:

A continuation of rather cold and changeable weather looks the most likely trend at this stage, with winds predominantly blowing from the west or northwest. Probably wettest and windiest in the north, with a greater likelihood of longer settled periods of weather in the south. Temperatures probably averaging out at near or just below the seasonal norm.

Tally, I think others have said this before:  The Met Office don't use GFS, they will use their own models and ECM.  The forecast only 'flips' if the model output shifts. Again, this has been raised before - would you prefer that their forecasts were consistent and therefore not factoring in the latest model guidance and therefore more likely to be wrong?

 

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Coldest air tomorrow will be the further north you are less cold in the south west and Ireland

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Thursday 18 Feb 2016 to Saturday 27 Feb 2016:

On Thursday, a band of rain, and perhaps sleet and snow, will probably affect southeast England at first, but is likely to weaken and clear eastwards through the day. Elsewhere, after a frosty start, there will be plenty of sunshine, and some scattered wintry showers in the west. Thicker cloud, stronger winds and outbreaks of rain are then likely to spread in from the northwest through Friday, with snow possible in parts of the north, clearing to blustery showers later. Thereafter, the weather looks set to remain rather changeable. There will be some milder, wet and windy weather at times, with a risk of gales, perhaps severe in the north. However there will also be some clearer and frosty periods in-between weather systems.

UK Outlook for Sunday 28 Feb 2016 to Sunday 13 Mar 2016:

A continuation of the rather changeable weather looks the most likely trend at this stage, with winds predominantly blowing from the northwest. This means the wettest and windiest conditions will probably affect northern and western areas, with a greater likelihood of settled periods of weather in the south and east. There is a chance that a period of more widespread cold and settled conditions could develop around the turn of the month, however confidence in this is low. Temperatures probably averaging out near or just below normal. Some frosty nights are likely, but there could well be large day-to-day variations as weather systems come and go.

K forecast for the next 5 days

Cold with sleet and snow in places.

This Evening and Tonight:

Cloudy in south Wales and southern England with outbreaks of rain, turning to snow at times over higher ground in the west. Clearer and colder elsewhere with frost, and also some wintry showers in parts of Scotland and northern England.

Sunday:

Rain, sleet and hill snow will clear the far south through the morning. Otherwise bright, cold and breezy for many. Wintry showers continuing across parts of Scotland and northern England.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Sunny but cold on Monday with wintry showers in the east. Rain, with snow on hills, moving southeastwards through Tuesday and into Wednesday, with blustery showers following in the northwest.

Updated at: 1429 on Sat 13 Feb 2016

Latest METO short term.No significant change except for mention of frost

Cloudier midweek with rain for most

A Deakin 15:30

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UK Outlook for Thursday 18 Feb 2016 to Saturday 27 Feb 2016:

On Thursday, a band of rain, and perhaps sleet and snow, will probably affect southeast England at first, but is likely to weaken and clear eastwards through the day. Elsewhere, after a frosty start, there will be plenty of sunshine, and some scattered wintry showers in the west. Thicker cloud, stronger winds and outbreaks of rain are then likely to spread in from the northwest through Friday, with snow possible in parts of the north, clearing to blustery showers later. Thereafter, the weather looks set to remain rather changeable. There will be some milder, wet and windy weather at times, with a risk of gales, perhaps severe in the north. However there will also be some clearer and frosty periods in-between weather systems.

UK Outlook for Sunday 28 Feb 2016 to Sunday 13 Mar 2016:

A continuation of the rather changeable weather looks the most likely trend at this stage, with winds predominantly blowing from the northwest. This means the wettest and windiest conditions will probably affect northern and western areas, with a greater likelihood of settled periods of weather in the south and east. There is a chance that a period of more widespread cold and settled conditions could develop around the turn of the month, however confidence in this is low. Temperatures probably averaging out near or just below normal. Some frosty nights are likely, but there could well be large day-to-day variations as weather systems come and go.

Updated at: 1429 on Sat 13 Feb 2016

Interesting that METO have mentioned the possibiltiy of cold as much as two  weeks way.Is that length of notice significant?

 

 

 

Latest forecast shows some snow falling possibilities for some later tonight, tomorrow and Monday, let alone mid-week. I will be keeping my eyes peeled, have done well from a NNE in recent years 

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A few wintry showers around over the next few days then turning milder, wetter and winder next weekend and beyond

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/35569245 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Friday 19 Feb 2016 to Sunday 28 Feb 2016:

A largely dry, cold start, however cloud, strong winds and outbreaks of rain are likely to spread in from the northwest through Friday, with snow possible in parts of the north, mainly over high ground. This should clear to blustery showers later, although with further more persistent rain returning over the weekend. Thereafter, the weather looks to remain rather changeable with milder, wet and windy weather at times, with a risk of gales, perhaps severe in the north. However there will also be some clearer and frosty periods in-between weather systems. Northwestern areas are likely to see the wettest weather, whilst southeastern areas are more likely to see more in the way of drier spells.

UK Outlook for Monday 29 Feb 2016 to Monday 14 Mar 2016:

A continuation of the rather changeable weather looks the most likely trend at this stage, with winds predominantly blowing from the northwest. This means the wettest and windiest conditions will probably affect northern and western areas, with a greater likelihood of settled periods of weather in the south and east. There is a chance that a period of more widespread cold and settled conditions could develop around the turn of the month, however confidence in this is low. Temperatures probably averaging out near or just below normal. Some frosty nights are likely, but there could well be large day-to-day variations as weather systems come and go.

No change from yesterday milder by next weekend but wind and rain returns with it

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/35573453 

Going on the latest forecast MBY could just get a dusting of snow

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Rain on wednesday other wise dry to the 23rd... If the met is correct. 

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-7 tomorrow night IMBY according to A Deakin

Chilly

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Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Rain and strong winds moving southeastwards Wednesday, some snow likely to lower levels. Drier and brighter Thursday, with wintry showers to northwest. Bright Friday, with rain and strong winds later.

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Saturday 20 Feb 2016 to Monday 29 Feb 2016:

Next weekend should start with blustery showers across northern parts, with some brighter spells. There is a risk of persistent rain at times further south, with some coastal gales possible. As we move through next week, conditions look to remain rather changeable with milder, wet and windy weather at times, with a risk of gales, perhaps severe in the north. There should also be some clearer and frosty interludes. Northwestern areas are likely to see the wettest weather, with a risk of snow, whilst southeastern areas are likely to see more in the way of drier spells. Temperatures are generally expected to be around normal, although mild for a time in the south at first. The temperatures could occasionally fall below average in any prolonged clear spells.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Mar 2016 to Tuesday 15 Mar 2016:

The rather unsettled weather looks likely to continue into the start of March, with mainly northwesterly winds. This means the wettest and windiest conditions will probably affect northern and western areas, with a greater likelihood of settled periods in the south and east. There is a chance that a period of rather colder and more settled conditions could develop, however confidence in this is currently low. Temperatures are likely to be around or just below average, but large daily variations are possible due to passing weather systems bringing slightly milder weather, followed by clearer spells.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Monday 15 February—Saturday 20 February
A cold week ahead

It will be a cold and frosty start on Monday with sunshine, but showers will affect eastern areas, some with snow. A cold day with temperatures staying below par and it will feel particularly cold in the east thanks to brisk northerly winds.

Monday night will be a very cold night as pressure builds, bringing clear conditions for many. A widespread and sharp frost will develop.

Tuesday will start very cold then, with plenty of sunshine. It will stay cold for most with temperatures struggling. During the day the winds will pick up across Northern Ireland and Scotland with a band of rain, preceeded by a little hill snow, edging in for the afternoon.

A band of rain will push east across Great Britain on Wednesday, with some snow over the Pennines, and perhaps overnight in parts of eastern England too. A mix of bright spells and wintry showers will move into Scotland and Northern Ireland though the afternoon.

Any remaining overnight rain will clear eastern England on Thursday with bright spells and showers following elsewhere . Staying on the chilly side for the time of year.

Mild weather will return on Friday as cloud and rain push in from the Atlantic. It will become windy with gales developing in the north.

Sunday 21 February—Saturday 27 February
Unsettled with rain & blustery winds

The last week of February looks set to be dominated by unsettled, changeable weather. Spells of rain will be accompanied by gales, perhaps severe gales in the northwest. We will probably have some fairly prolonged spells of heavy rain in the NW initially. These weather systems interspersed with colder conditions with northwesterly winds bring sunshine and blustery showers. There will be fairly large day-to-day swings in temperature.

Sunday 28 February—Saturday 12 March
Northwesterlies dominate

Northwesterly winds look likely to dominate bringing plenty of blustery showers to the northwest and drier weather to the south. Temperatures may be a little on the cool side for the time of year in the north. Where the winds fall light overnight, there will likely be some frosts. There is a chance that the weather becomes more settled towards early March bringing colder weather with more sunshine, but for now there remains a lot of uncertainty at this time range.

Next week

Will late winter have a sting in its tail? Find out here next week!