The outlook looks zonal,all winter it's been fl looks good,but as we all know fl never comes.then some posters are shot down for saying it looks zonal,or car't you post on here unless you think a cold spell is on the way.

Originally Posted by: cowman 

Samuelson said Wall Street Indexes predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions. A similar thing could be said about weather forums and cold spells.  Nonetheless, if you follow the thread here (and presumably on NW) you'll learn who to listen to or ignore. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The one consistent thing about the ECM op runs at the moment is that they all seem to want to sink the jet gradually south during next week, compared to where it has been for much of the winter. This evening's ECM 12z maintains that theme, even if it is more progressive than this morning's run.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

To me, its a case of a waiting game.  The evidence I can detect, is, as you say, a gradual sinking south of the jet.  Any decent cold before mid February is in my eyes a bonus.  I'm expecting to start to see the odd stellar run cropping up in the GEFS from early next week as mid February comes into FI range.  All you need IMHO to salvage a mild winter is one snowy cold spell.  It can happen, 2005 was a notable example IMBY, as was 1983.  However, balanced against these hopes must be the many years where the spring came early.

If we're not to get a cold late winter spell in the next 6-8 weeks, so be it, I love the spring and longer days, so a win-win perhaps?

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

What a brilliantly positive post both ways!

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

But surely Brian, if you allow people membership, and the right to post, there is a right to assume you are posting for a purpose, be it just an opinion? The suggestion that some posters simply are there to be ignored, just because their opinions are not underpinned by evidence, experience or popularity,  is ...well, a little sad, since that doesn't seem to be in the terms when they join.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Positivity isn't getting us anywhere though Bertwhistle..we need a different 'more hard done by' approach now. IMO. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Positivity isn't getting us anywhere though Bertwhistle..we need a different 'more hard done by' approach now. IMO. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

You are a miserable old sod!  How's that?

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Yeah I feel that too. Just having one of those evenings where a cloud with even a slightly aluminium lining is nice.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Yeah I feel that too. Just having one of those evenings where a cloud with even a slightly aluminium lining is nice.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

If you look at it the other way, every silver lining will be attached to a big, black dirty cloud that is just waiting to spew in from the Atlantic to drizzle its virulent malevolence over us.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

The atlantic is relentless..how much longer do we have to put up with this ? Early February next week and still completely snowless here. The daffodils will have finished flowering and will be dying back soon. Optimism is starting to fade with ever increasing momentum now as another 'core' period of winter cold passes us by for another year.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

The atlantic is relentless..how much longer do we have to put up with this ? Early February next week and still completely snowless here. The daffodils will have finished flowering and will be dying back soon. Optimism is starting to fade with ever increasing momentum now as another 'core' period of winter cold passes us by for another year.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

That looks cold to me, with the mean below average .....  Okay, not much below average and no sign of the -15c and 6ft of snow we normally expect in winter.   But better than anything so far this autumn. 

Originally Posted by: Essan 

it does look cold with 850s averaging between -2 & -4c for the last week of Feb....but (for the south at any rate) cold and grim rather than cold and snowy, with daytime temperatures in the mid-single digits.... A world away from the blowtorch, but no snow-fest either.... Especially for those unlucky sods on the south coast!

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

it does look cold with 850s averaging between -2 & -4c for the last week of Feb....but (for the south at any rate) cold and grim rather than cold and snowy, with daytime temperatures in the mid-single digits.... A world away from the blowtorch, but no snow-fest either.... Especially for those unlucky sods on the south coast!

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

Hi Chiltern

How do I get access to the model for the last week of February- that's about the last hope-cast time for us!

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Sorry, I meant 2nd week in February... That's still  verging on hope-cast (dispair-cast) territory.  For end of Feb, the CFS is the only model I'm aware of... But by that point it's function is more of a random synoptics generator!

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

Here's the 2m temp spread from the same run:

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 it does look cold with 850s averaging between -2 & -4c for the last week of Feb....but (for the south at any rate) cold and grim rather than cold and snowy, with daytime temperatures in the mid-single digits.... A world away from the blowtorch, but no snow-fest either.... Especially for those unlucky sods on the south coast!

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

Samuelson said Wall Street Indexes predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions. A similar thing could be said about weather forums and cold spells.  Nonetheless, if you follow the thread here (and presumably on NW) you'll learn who to listen to or ignore. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze