Synoptically a very encouraging trend.

Deep and wide LP over central Europe.  

If any cold air wants to play with the UK - now is the time to do so with the Euro High off the table for a while

From IF

Indeed so. As I mentioned yesterday, we must expect a raft of model outcomes as suites get to grips (or mostly not, currently) with broadscale pattern change and drivers next month. Many should recall the similar wild fluxes we saw ahead of last key pattern change earlier this month (to the colder blocking) albeit for different reasons. The prognosis for Feb was discussed last week at Exeter (seasonal outlook meeting, held monthly) and since then, there's been no strong reason to shift from the views I outlined yesterday re anticipated changes especially from mid-month (when SSW influence likely to be coming into play). 

Interesting update from Ian, the METO have stuck ridigly to their back-loaded winter forecast. The crunch will soon come, I have my doubts that the PV will yield sufficiently for our benefit.

Not only it'll be -80 C at the 30 hpa level over the UK in about four day's time so we may get to spot some nacreous clouds, the whole upper vortex thing finally get to be smashed apart later on down the line.

At a fortnight away, is a long way off so this is JJF but it does fit with the idea of a "back loaded winter".

I wouldn't mind betting that you held a similar view at this stage back in 2013 Ian, when we had an unsettled end to January & start of Feb which came after a cold spell in mid-Jan that year.

The Met Office contingency planners forecast favours slightly above average temps in Feb and the latest 30 dayer doesn't sound too wintry to me:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Seems consistent with the North American NWP.

Well let's hope they are proved hopelessly wrong in that case.

I think the update is a bet hedger as those updates often are at this range, they rarely say 'very mild' or 'very cold'.

If they are right (and the ensembles I have seen are consistent with it) for frequently NW winds then that tends to be the snowiest scenario for NW England and the West Midlands at this time of year.

It depends on the source of the wind but I'm guessing they are seeing Atlantic heights, partial toppling, reload of pattern with heights low over Europe.

I was just browsing this myself- perhaps they don't want to fully commit until they see the effects of SSW (if any) ?

I see the differences between GFS and UKMO continue this evening.

UKMO T144 is dropping the PV back W and keeping it in Scandinavia and doesn't deepen the Low to the W of the UK nearly as much. Basically GFS has everything further W.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_6_mslp850.png?cb=691

Here's a silly thought- we historically look to the E and N for our really cold weather; but with the Atlantic cold pool seeming to preserve the cold, and the coldest uppers most intense for the last couple of winters in the west, and with the westerly snow 'events' (eg over Sheffield) last winter, maybe we should look west for our best chances; if only we can get a little more thrust than shown in the link above.

I'm listening 

It's funny you should say that. This was exactly one year ago today...

Looks like a stormy period with a continued trend of a jet digging south.  Some variety available in FI on the GEFS and my waiting game for cold continues, I'm hoping for some HLB options available in deep FI by the very end of the weekend.

My thoughts at present are for continued gradual erosion of the Euro high, to a point where it gets replaced by a Euro-low at some time mid month. 

Happily I will take an early spring as an alternative though,

  #win-win

Despite some mouth watering charts amongst the ensembles, the overall snow related picture still looks dodgy down here, with all the potential coming from the north, and only short bursts of truly cold temps (at 850hpa). However, from the Midlands northwards its looking really good for snow on a number of occasions, including this weekend.   

Love it again. WI you really should consider a pseudonym with the word Pozzy in it- not +ve Giant, of course.

patience   grasshopper.

I'll wager that it'll snow whilst I'm in the Canary Islands in a couple of weeks.  

Perhaps noteworthy is that a couple of 940mb Lows are appearing at the T192 range. Maybe one to watch....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/senspanel1921.gif

I haven't been this excited since I last lit the budgie's farts.

yes, quite more realistic !!!! (Lol) than looking for snow. Perhaps 940 is overdoing things a little, but stormy crapfest is way more likely than anything wintry atm imo 

Furthermore, given its February next week then I would suggest this fabled cold is starting to be modelled by next weekend for the 7-10 day range if it's a mid month spell your looking for.

any news on the proposed SSW?