Keep the faith:

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/temps.gif

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   Storm Henry will move East to the North of Scotland over the next 24-36 hours pushing another spell of storm force Westerly winds across Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England tonight and tomorrow with a showery airflow replacing the mild and damp weather behind a cold front moving SE today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 10000ft across Southern England before falling behind a cold front later to around 4000ft for most parts by tomorrow. Snow showers and blizzards will return to the Scottish mountains tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly unsettled and windy with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream remains very strong across the Atlantic over the coming two weeks. The flow currently blowing East across the UK troughs further South later this week and next before ridging North later next week and then settling NW of the UK at the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a new month but pretty much a similar picture over the next few weeks with Low pressure largely ruling the airflows across the UK with Westerly gales and spells of rain and showers, which turn wintry at times as colder air feeds in. Through next week Low pressure crosses on more Southerly latitudes for a time with heavy rain or wintry showers almost anywhere before High pressure finally is shown to build in at the end of the second week with dry and frosty weather before a milder SW flow with some rain feeds back into NW Britain at the end of the period.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run broadly follows that of the Operational with wet and wild the theme of much of the weather expected over the next couple of weeks. High pressure also builds in later on through the second week on this run too with cold and frosty weather following a day or two of wintry showers with the far NW only seeing rain then by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters show a very similar pattern at day 14 today with winds from a Westerly source with High pressure down to the SW and Low pressure up to the NW of the UK in various guises delivering rain and showers at times to all parts of the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows westerly winds through the working days of this week with rain at times in very strong winds. Though cooler at times some milder spells are still likely across the South. Through the weekend Low pressure will enhance further with cyclonic winds across the UK with further rain at times or heavy thundery showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today continue to show changeable conditions as various warm and cold fronts pass over throughou this week with mild and damp periods alternating with cooler and brighter if windy weather with a sunshine and shower mix with snow on hills of the North.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning offers no relief either from the wild weather of late with further spells of rain and gales and wintry showers in between. Later in the run the model continues to portray deep Low pressure even closer to or across the UK with further strong winds, rain and showers with snow on hills across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows no changes either to the unsettled and windy theme as further Low pressure areas dominate the UK with spells of wind and rain mixed with colder brighter weather with showers, wintry and thundery in places later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today looks very much the same in theme as it has for days now with Low pressure streaming across the Atlantic on a collision course with the UK delivering spells of rain followed by more showery spells when some snow can be expected across the hills of the North. Before that happens though this week sees a lot of strong Westerly winds with alternating mild/colder periods with damp weather replaced by a spell of colder and more showery weather tomorrow and Wednesday before the mild air returns NE later in the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today indicates good support for many members showing a Low pressure based pattern across the UK at Day 10 with Low pressure close to the North or over the North with little sign of either cold or settled weather across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are in unison today in maintaining very volatile and Low pressure based conditions remaining for the UK for the foreseeable future.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.0 pts to UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 88.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.3 pts to 67.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.5 pts to 48.0 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  After a few days off from the model world I though I might return this morning and fine the weekend has delivered some longer term changes in the pattern of synoptics across the UK but alas no is the answer to that one as all models continue to paint a very volatile Jet stream and resultant Low pressure close to or across the UK for much of the upcoming two weeks. For the working part of this week Westerly winds remain strong with severe gales in association with Henry over the next 36 hours across the North. The current mild and damp conditions in the South should dissolve for a day or two as colder showery air moves South later today and last through into Wednesday with some snow on Northern hills. Then by Thursday another large warm sector moves up across the UK from the SW returning mild, damp or even wet conditions later in the week. Then from the weekend on all models still show Low pressure areas taking a much more Southerly route across the UK than of late with gales and wet weather in equal measure almost anywhere and while no cold weather looks likely some snow is expected over the higher ground on occasion with the incidence of some very heavy and thunder showers almost anywhere very likely between the rain-bands next week. The only faint light on the horizon is offered by GFS this morning which in it's latter stages shows High pressure making a welcome return to our shores with a temporary spell at least of clearer and colder frosty weather right at the end of the forecast period. So there you have it not much else to say about the output this morning with Winter remaining elusive by it's absence in the real world this morning if it's widespread cold and snowfall you seek.       

Next Update Tuesday February 2nd 2016 from 09:00 

0Z GEFS are not without interest this morning. Looking more promising than recently. E.g. 5, 7, 15, 18, 20.

Yes, its from the weekend onwards that the rest of the UK joins in the wet and windy weather with features often running across the south and Midlands.

When would you expect to see the ECM to be showing a response at surface level to the stratospheric events it's modelled in those diagrams? Looks bleeurgh right out to 16 Feb at De Bilt:

http://projects.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=00

The futility of longer term predictions is highlighted by the operational and control runs of the GFS 0z where the upper profile ends up as +5's 850 hpa on one and -9'c 850 hpa on the other!

I wish it was going the way of Feb 1998! That was a lovely month. All I'm seeing is unsettled zonal weather with showers and gales.

a couple of Perb's going for LPs to run across the country on a more southerly line.  Meaning a greater portion of the UK stays int he cold sector- not just Scotland.

Then this turns up on todays Op run.

delivers snowmagedon to Northern Britain.  But the whole setup is more encouraging than anything.

The GFS runs from about 8th Feb look like burying Scotland and the north in snow while us down here will, alas, just get the odd flake or two on top of the Downs. ECM much the same, though Nick Miller on weather for the week ahead said that the depression after Henry (doesn't look as if it will merit a name) will drag down a lot of cold air behind it

Maybe by the end of March 😆

Only if you believe it will stay that way. Stay tuned for a rollercoaster model ride in the coming days.

The drier and so called "Colder interlude" towards mid Feb is now a 1 day event. ha!

On 1 operational run. We need to be patient.

I find the way that you hang on every GFS model run and ride the emotional roller-coaster very entertaining, Tally.

Aside from a very few days early in January the charts have never given any hint of any prolonged colder weather.  The pattern is far too mobile - and consistent with an El Nino winter, as the Met Office update says.

The ECM 00z ensemble chart shows more of the same - seasonal temperatures, occasionally mild and occasionally cool.

You've gone all Zen.

I find it disturbing.

There now comes potential for Colder and more Wintry weather, starting by Saturday but more so by Sunday (6-7th) February 2016.  The Chart over UK showing colder MSLP 500hpa Thickness with 528 dam line and below more lower across UK by then 7th Feb.

Another Deep NW Atlantic Low shown at 120-144 hrs esp. At 144 ready to follow NW UK to SSE UK double Low...

The Azores High at 96hrs on Friday to our SSW off UK - Mild weather SE UK but Colderfor Western part of BI (UK) due to the High close by it keeps SE and S UK mild weather west SW winds.

Patiently await possible but not entirely agreed shift to Azores High versus Polar North Atlantic Vortex relocate to our West NW and Central UK by 6-8 th- with gradual return to proper winter weather I wish.

With the Azores High moved West NW off Azores area - and part of it ridging north about 600 miles away from SE UK towards Copenhagen, Northwest Germany and Scandy aka Denmark et all!!.

😩😆😄💤👁.

At least in February 1998 we had a day of wet snow in the SW - CAN'T REMEMBER when but 12 had a slushy covering in Tiverton and frost and more than one day of drier weather.

Getting close to a major SSW in the Berlin Strat diagnostics forecast now.

Reversal at 60°/1hPa, and only 10m/s at 60°/10hPa.

Sounds encouraging, Glen, If it does turn into a SSW event as the above suggests may happen, let's hope it will be of some benefit to us later in February.

Surely at that kind of range that chart means absolutely nothing. 

Tis ever thus.

Nice one Fothergill but I don't think the models have really offered anything fantastic apart from perhaps a day or so prior to the 'cooler' spell last month.

For me the concern is that whatever warmings take place, the trop PV is so huge that lobes of it will be left to our NW unless we are very lucky. My forecast for no HLB this winter that will impact on the UK remains.

No, when Feb is over I will repost my winter forecast together with a review.