That's the bit I am currently finding fascinating, we will all have developed a peculiar slanted walk if we have to endure constant winds like that, on a brighter note, it would be a snowfest for the ski areas. The speed which the features are moving through is already slowing down with Henry getting delayed and now taking a couple days to pass compared to a day for Gertrude. 

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Some sign of amplification here?

But it still looks very mobile, and even if a block did form, there's seems little decently cold air within striking distance of UK to tap into..

Will all those exotic sounding TLAs that indicate a colder 2nd half to Feb show their hand soon?

Oh, Lord won't you buy me an Easterly Blast? Just one. Please.

Indeed.

Not an awful lot of interest in the outlook for us, but central/north/east Iceland looks like the place to be next weekend if you want snow. GFS showing continuous moderate/heavy falls for nearly 96 hours from Friday onwards! 

We've got an Iceland in my nearest town.

Cheaper than the flights I guess 

The mobile westerly pattern brings out a distinct NW- SE split with rainfall totals by Friday depicted below.  Soggy for some...

That doesn't look too dissimilar to December; one of the things I remember of that month was seeing chart after chart with triple-digit rainfall totals in the NW and single-figure totals down here. I guess it's no surprise when there's some warm, moist air involved - the mountains literally squeeze the water out of the air.

Longer term, IF over on NW mentions on their strat thread that GLOSEA is now favouring a return to westerlies after midmonth. It doesn't mean that'll actually happen, of course, but it fits in well enough with what ECM-32 has been showing. This morning's ECM-15 control run shows a low to the east at 240, with NNW'lies over the UK (not especially cold ones, mind you). These continue all the way out to 324, before a trough sweeps SE'wards - this introduces strong WNW'lies. 

Been that way all Winter can not see anything in the output that shows any different 

The latters stages of the GFS 00z run this morning looked potentially more interesting for cold chances, as did the 06z for a time.

If, as I believe from what was said in here the other night, there is a SW event now underway, let's hope it can to something to get us out of this neverending zonal pattern. Surely we're due a break soon!

Berlin are still showing a major warming at about a week out - that won't be factored into the model output yet:

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/temps.gif

It will be - both the GFS and ECM models take account of the stratosphere in their models (indeed, that chart is produced from the op runs of the ECM run). It's also important to mention that the chart shows a displacement event rather than a textbook SSW - in other words, warmer air moves over the North Pole as the vortex gets shunted aside. You'll see the rise in temperatures is much less marked at lower lattitudes!

Meanwhile, a fun comparison. On the left, today's 0z ECM ensembles for Reading. On the right, the ECM ensembles for Reading in Feb 2005! What I wouldn't give to see those sorts of temperatures again...

do we know how the SSW is progressing? I thought it had been down scaled to minor, though I think Someone posted a chart yesterday showing quite a rapid rise (though from a very cold background figure)

You can see it in the chart I posted above:

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/temps.gif

cheers MM, let's hope it gathers pace 

I think the trend today has been that the Low in-between Scotland and Iceland at T144 struggles to push E.

I can see this Low splitting in 2 even further W than is being shown presently; one arm heading Ne and the other S.

Implication if that did happen would be remaining on the milder side. Just IMHO but I can see this happening.

I wonder whether the GFS 00z run this morning was an illustration of some of the charts that GEFS has been showing at times. It is the only run I've seen which really raises pressure to the north, although GFS06z also hinted at it for a time as well.

The Outlook does look Cold with snow showers for North Ireland and Scotland inc Hills and the lower levels over there, and even down across North West England and NW Wales at times during the next 8 days etc.

Night temps milder in the SE and South UK, but here some short lived one or two odd days during next 8 days when temps at day and night could drop to Seasonal Average.

Some Heavy Rain quite often and also often windy with gales or severe gales, Henry and then Imogen on the way.

Winter is not over yet, once Imogen leaves UK, by next Weekend Sunday- the outlook after 168 hrs I just hope we get to see A Scandy high set up for a few days, It could continue less cold with more mild weather days for Central and SW SE England and parts of Wales, some days in the coming days 0-8.

Cold NW flow Tuesday and Wednesday, and next Sunday also could see more cold West NW winds, then after that it looks much the same - we can only hope that the less Cold SW and West flow takes a longer break.

😆😀💦🌂.

I agree Laiq- we'll keep hoping.

Fits in with how I expect things to pan out. The models have not to grips yet with the changes coming down the line, but some hints are appearing.

Cyclonic PV located to our West and cross UK - Jetstream flow across our West then Central then off to Norway et all.

Location of Azores High close to us to our SSW- most of the time.

PV Cyclonic Low's, from NW Atlantic move to our West and NW cross us, then move across NW Norway then off to the NE.

Mild areas move across Southwest and South Central UK, as the Azores High is always sitting to our South and SW, Low Pressure Mild Sectors keep being advected via the Mid Central North Atlantic by deep SSW feeds lol, we have had this happen every 1-2 weeks or a week or 3 weeks and longer of this winter with some High Pressure days, followed mild days dominated with cloudy windy wet spells very regularly this 2015/16 winter, but with a couple 4 or 5 spells from December to January that were nearer normal temperatures with some winter sunshine and showers.

This winter so far has been often seeing moderate to heavy but brief snow showers in the North and NW UK.

Spring is edging closer all the time now, FI for cold weather wishes is often a concern, but Tuesday and Wednesday this next few days after Monday's mild WSW flow will bring some delightfully chilly showers for SE parts.

Thanks for the comment by the way, you can always hope the Azores high gets going out for a change to it normal place in the Azores Islands.

And we hope we get a large High over Greenland and Scandy, when an NAD shutdown deflects the mild SW flow away from Central and South UK from our SW if it means no Azores high close by to our SW S.

I mean if we get a cold Northerly or East or NE flow on the back of SE exit from our NW by Low Pressure that is more like winter hope casting.🌤😅.