The first cluster shown represents 25% of the GFS and suggests a little support for ECM's nasty version of events with that Sat/Sun secondary low prior to the main event Sun/Mon. So perhaps a 15% chance of wind gusts to 70 mph across inland southern England. One to watch. For 60 mph wind gusts the odds increase substantially, as 60% of GEFS support the past two GFS op runs with their suggestion of such wind speeds, albeit only briefly along what looks a squally frontal boundary.

The second cluster is offering 15% support to the UKMO 00z op, with its further south track that spares the south from the worst of the wind and perhaps rain (depending on extent of LP deepening with E flow on N. side countering progression of front to the east).

For the Sun/Mon storm, a full 100% of the GEFS have a low deep enough to threaten 60 mph wind gusts widely across much of the UK, with around 70 mph for the coasts. 

About 50% look capable of bringing 70 mph inland for a time as a secondary disturbance puts a squeeze on the isobars as it races east within the westerlies marking the south side of the main storm. The track is unclear though with anywhere from the south of Scotland to the far south of England within the range of possibilities. 

Some 20% are threatening the far south with these inland gusts (with 80 mph or so possible along the coast), which would be a rare event given that the low tracks from west to east rather than SW to NE which is the usual path taken by the nastiest storms down this way.

A similar proportion have the low less intense overall, making it a more 'typical' winter storm with 50 mph gusts the peak for most inland parts.

These values are estimates, mind, based on the closeness of isobars and past experience.

Looking further ahead, to when the ECM 00z has that bowling ball low approaching from WSW of the UK and threatening a lot of rain and more unusually strong winds, about 20% of the 00z GEFS (06z clusters not updated that far ahead yet for some reason) were similar (above-left), but the mean of these is some 10 mb higher than what ECM produced. It's still a serious rainmaker for the south, though.

25% have the low coming across but further north (above-right), with the wind and rain threats following suit. Still not as deep as ECM's version though!

The rest hold the low back in the mid-Atlantic, similar to the 00z GFS operational run. So a 50-50 split between the fast and slow solutions... handy 

Seriously though, I do like this 'cluster GEFS' approach, which weatheronline have had freely available for a while now. If Brian could implement such a thing on TWO, well I'd be very impressed indeed - incidentally how are the strat. geopotential height charts and 30 hPa level coming along?  

Let's face it nothing's ever really clear cut is it, so all views are welcomed here as long as they can be substantiated.

On topic please, stay away from personal sniping and remember the mods do the moderating................

Oops, forgot that moved posts retain their original time of posting! Didn't want to lose my lengthy effort to the old thread 

I'm also going to quote my second post of the morning as it's relevant for longer-term thinking:

I should have known not to post on page 50 of a MOD thread - why did I not think to kick off a new one?! 

As I commented in the last thread, the one thing the events of early-mid February 11 years ago should have taught us is that nothing should be assumed about the model output beyond a few days or a week ahead. After the models had teased us with a notable cold spell in the early days of that month which they then backtracked on, a number of people at the time thought that our last chance of a cold spell for that winter had gone. But the models had other ideas.

Also, if there is a SSW about to happen or already happening, that is likely to be another issue that the models may not have yet fully taken account of. We've been in this kind of situation before, as I have explained above.

Only if GFS backs off pushing the jet through on the usual track.

Some bothersome-looking EC-ENS solutions are emerging more for southern areas into next week through to mid-month. 'Cold' issues are quite evidently a mere sideline in terms of current medium range model interest. It's going to be a very interesting period (for those with broad weather fascination) with potential for some decidedly volatile conditions. 

From IF earlier today

And that in headline should be where the focus lies for the next ten days. Some potentially very stormy conditions incoming for a wider area of the UK than previously affected.

But for those who still crave for blizzards and ice, I present to you solution #13 of the 12Z GEFS. At last some eye candy to look at through rose-tinted binoculars

A bit blowy

Not much to complain about

I can't see how the easterly shown there can bring in any serious cold. I've never seen such a large area of Europe uniformly  above average temp

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

(scroll down for the anomaly chart)

The one thing I have noticed on various charts recently is how surprisingly high some of the 850 hpa temps are when you might expect something much more encouraging

But look what we have to endure first on that run:

One of my fence posts is rotted through. Is it even worth replacing before Monday? 

Models have become very tedious of late....  Had a quick look at the Strat models (hadn't for a while) and it seems that a significant warming event is being forecast in the coming days, with temperatures shooting up to a balmy +10c from -30c over the course of 2-3 days at 10hpa.  Does this count as a SSW?  Whether it makes any difference to our weather down is another matter, and if it does, the likelihood of it causing anything particularly wintry must be low considering the point we are in the season.

A large continental land mass such as Europe can cool down very quickly though, if the synoptic set-up is conducive to it. Just the sae as it can warm up very quickly as well in the summer. Probably more so than is normally the case in the UK.

Looking increasingly likely there will be a very stormy spell of weather from this weekend onwards as has already been mentioned.

ECM in close up shows Monday and Thursday looking the worst days but every day from Saturday onwards will be very windy

Saturday night could also be quite nasty. This is the latest chart from ARPEGE

O/T L Leer showed a continuous run of Southerly tracking LP's across the South, it looks as though those of us in the South are to get battered with wind and rain

Deep LP across S Britain

Where are we

I hope I can avoid the worst of it come next Wednesday (10th) when I'm in London on a day trip. These southerly tracking lows spell bad news! A bit of relief for Scotland but it won't exactly be bone dry up there either! 

Somewhere underneath that blob of purple to the north of France.

That is a brute. Wind gusts across inland central parts of Wales of around 140kph or 85-90mph. Some 10mph higher out to sea. Could see a 100mph gust if this were to verify.

While the detail of each system will change from run to run it would be surprising if some parts of central and southern Britain do not see at least one major disruptive storm at some point in the next 4-10 days.